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New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Picks: NFL Wildcard Weekend Betting Odds and Prediction

patriots vs bills prediction nfl picks betting trends

The NFL Playoffs schedule is set for Wild Card Weekend! In the second game of the weekend, we get an AFC East divisional matchup of Patriots vs Bills. The two teams split the regular season matchups, so who will get the last laugh on Saturday? Let’s do a deep dive into this game, look at the betting trends, and give a Patriots vs Bills prediction and NFL picks against the spread.

Patriots vs Bills NFL Playoffs Wild Card Weekend Preview

NFL Playoffs — Wild Card Weekend
New England Patriots (10-7, 6-2 Away) vs. Buffalo Bills (11-6, 6-3 Home)
Date: 
Saturday, Jan. 15, 2021
Time: 
8:15 p.m. EST
Venue: 
Highmark Stadium — Orchard Park, NY
Coverage: CBS


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Patriots vs Bills Odds & Spread

NFL betting odds for Patriots vs Bills are taken from Bovada Sportsbook.

Moneyline: NE: (+185) | BUF: (-225)
Spread: 
NE: +5 (-115) | BUF: -5 (-105)
Total: 
43.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting:
 NE: (44%) | BUF: (56%)

Patriots vs Bills NFL Betting Trends

  • Patriots are 8-3 both straight up and ATS in their last 11 games.
  • Nine of the Patriots’ last 13 games have gone over the total.
  • Bills are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against AFC East Division opponents.
  • Bills are only 1-9 straight up in their last 10 head-to-head matchups against the Patriots at home.
  • Since 2004, Patriots are 15-3 ATS (7-1 in the last eight) in head-to-head matchups against the Bills on the road.

Patriots vs Bills Prediction and NFL Picks Against the Spread

This is the third matchup between these AFC East foes this season, with the Bills winning the only game that didn’t feature horrendous weather. Still, I expect Bill Belichick to win the mental game on Saturday.

No. 6 seeds have performed well in the playoffs over the past four years, going 8-0 against the spread in the Wild Card round. I like the Patriots in this game, along with another No. 6 seed later.

New England has been running the ball really well, while the Bills’ run defense has been suspect. If the Patriots get an early lead and can control the tempo with their running game, I don’t trust Josh Allen to be efficient enough and make the right decisions to cover the spread. However, the home crowd should be just enough for them to pull off the narrow victory, possibly with a game-winning kick, which would be a welcomed play in Buffalo of all places.

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Patriots +5, BillsML

About Zach Brunner

Whether it's the Bucks winning the NBA Finals or the Badgers screwing themselves every single year, Zach is a Wisconsin sports fan through and through. He has been working in the sports betting and fantasy sports industries for nearly a decade, and he's always down to talk about either.

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