Sometimes inspiration comes in the form of things you see on TV, sometimes it’s from conversations with others, but for me it came in the form of something I read yesterday. Earlier
this week we told you that over at Off Tackle Empire it was Wisconsin week and while for the most part it’s been entertaining, it also gave me some massive inspiration to put to rest a debate that shouldn’t even be a debate – whether Wisconsin is an ELITE Big Ten team? Yes it IS and in fact it’s just as ELITE as a certain team in Maize ‘N Blue, you know… MICHIGAN.
Yes, you just read that and I can actually prove it with crazy things like numbers and facts and such.
For those of you that have followed this site or know me personally, you know I don’t have a problem with differing opinions, that’s what makes college sports fun. But, what I can’t stand is someone spouting an opinion that simply can’t be backed up with cold hard results and facts.
During their “Potluck” feature on Wisconsin over at OTE earlier this week the question was poised: “Has Wisconsin jumped up to elite or near-elite level (a packed Camp Randall on game Saturdays says it has)?”
Answers included nearly all forms of the version of NO and some MAYBES, but not a single YES. Yet none actually were based in anything factual, just straight up opinion and nearly all shaped around the assertion that they weren’t close to Michigan or Ohio State.
O.k., it’s easy to figure that they aren’t on the level of Ohio State (they’ve won national championships relatively recently and well… we’ve never won one) but, Michigan? Have any of them been paying attention to the programs in the past 20 years or so? With that it got me to digging into the actual facts, you know things like records, championships, bowl games – all things that should matter in the world of college football.
As the saying goes, “the proof is in the pudding,” and here’s the pudding for our purposes:
I decided to go in the way back machine and landed in 1993, a fair jumping off point for a comparison because it was the home of Wisconsin’s first Big Ten title in 31 years, the year Penn State joined the league, Michigan was still Michigan, and from that season on we’ve got 19 years worth of results, which is a good sample size to avoid flash in the pan seasons and get a sample of the ebb and flows of the programs.
Before we get into the results of our scientific research and trip to the past, let’s take a look at some of the answers provided to the question asked above at Off Tackle Empire:
“Now, if you want to ask whether Wisconsin is elite in the national sense…. that’s more debatable. Sure, back-to-back Rose Bowls have occurred, but as any rival fan or non-B1G partisan would be quick to remind me, “scoreboard.” That is, we haven’t won those Rose Bowls. And close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, and certainly not in college football perceptions. The Badgers are a tough team. They are a team that likely scares any reasonable fan of any other B1G institution…. but until they start winning the upper level bowls (or this new fangled playoff) they won’t be reliably in the national title conversation, and they won’t be truly elite.” – from Hillary Lee
O.k., the “scoreboard” argument is a fair one if you are looking at the national level, but then you have to say the entire conference is guilty of that because we’ve got our collective asses kicked in the bowl games as of late, so is no Big Ten team “Elite?”
“Is Wisconsin elite? Elite teams don’t rebuild, they reload. If they can keep the train chugging with all the turnover they have in so many key positions this year on the field and in the press box, and win the B1G again, then yeah, they’re elite. If not, they’re not elite, but very good.” – from Ted Glover
Folks, this one is about the most fair assessment provided and I can’t really disagree with this opinion because they are taking a more “what have you done for me lately” approach to the question.
“Let’s start with elite. I think Wisconsin is in the upper-ish tier of teams in the B1G right now however, can you call them elite until they win a Rose Bowl? I’m not even trying to be a hater, but it just seems like we throw around these titles because it’s sensational. Wisconsin is a good bordering on great program, but until they break through, I think they’re still just on the edge.” – from KennardHusker
Looks like we have yet another writer with the “what have you done for me lately” approach to things. Did the writer miss the 3 Rose Bowl victories in the 90’s? My question back would simply be… Then is Michigan an elite team? They haven’t won a Rose Bowl in years either, but more on that later.
And here is the Pièce de résistance of this entire article (of course it comes from an MSU writer):
“The best test I can suggest for “elite status” is if UW was in the same position that UM/VT were in at the end of last season, would the Sugar have taken them. I’m not sure. UW has a great program but much like MSU, are they a “move the needle” program yet? As our fine readers were so generous to point out last week MSU is not a at this level and I don’t think UW is either.”
Again, facts my friend, show me the facts that say this? Wisconsin travels as well as any team in the country and it does have the ability to move the needle in that sense. MSU does not travel anywhere near as well in terms of numbers and that’s a FACT. Also, since when does Va Tech move the needle on the national scale? Most people outside of the Mid-Atlantic region could care less about the program, but I digress.
Before you think it was just all negative in the article, here is the one answer that came the closest to actually digging into the question beyond the surface:
“Tough to say that Wisconsin has jumped to any kind of elite level in the B1G quite yet, but that’s only because the standard of elite in the B1G is so high. Ohio State, Michigan & Penn State have enjoyed decades of winning B1G titles and on a national level as well. By contrast, Wisconsin football has only existed since 1993, so they just don’t have the longevity yet to boast elite status. However, if you took purely the last decade in the B1G, Wisconsin certainly has to be in the discussion, especially considering the drop-off of Michigan under RichRod, and the scandals at OSU & PSU.” – from JDMill
Alright, like I said it actually came close to looking into things at a deeper level, but came up just short. So close, thanks for playing, and come back again won’t you?
The answer above is a great jumping off point for this discussion because she mentions Penn State as “elite” and also talks about history. Wisconsin has been good/great for the past 20 years, at what point does that become long enough? As for PSU? Let’s just put that one to rest folks. Penn State may have history, but it’s ancient history and since joining the Big Ten they aren’t any better than Wisconsin is, same for Michigan and you’re about to see why.
Since 1993 Penn State has won just three conference titles and has made just 2 Rose Bowl appearances with a 1-1 record. They have made 4 BCS bowl game appearances however and are 3-1 in those games. Overall the Nittany Lions are 163-72 (.693 winning %) since their ’93 entrance into the Big Ten. Their conference record is a very good 96-56 (.631 winning %) and ranks in the top of the heap since ’93 for sure. So, Penn State does belong in the conversation record wise, but having just three conference titles isn’t exactly earth shattering in nearly 20 years.
What about the Wolverines since ’93? Well they are 164-72 (.737 winning %) since then, with a conference record of 103-49 (.677 winning %). They also hold 5 Big Ten titles and have appeared in 4 Rose Bowls. However, they are just 1-3 in those games. Michigan has played in 6 BCS Bowl games overall (2-4), and made 17 bowl game appearances in the past 19 seasons, going 9-8 in those games. I don’t know about you but all of those numbers certainly add up to “Elite” to me, especially looking at the conference titles and number of BCS bowl games they’ve played in.
Wisconsin’s stats in that time frame? The Badgers are 167-70-4 (.680 winning %) and are 93-56-3 (.611 winning %) in the Big Ten since 1993. They’ve won 5 Big Ten conference titles, including the first championship game, have made 5 Rose Bowl appearances (3-2) and the same number of BCS games overall. Overall they’ve made 17 bowl game appearances with a record of 10-7 in those games.
Now, you can begin to argue over what makes a team elite from here, but I happen to think looking at conference titles, Rose Bowl appearances, BCS bowl game appearances, overall bowl games, and your actual records are about as clear of examples of the criteria you should be using to make a team elite. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not here arguing that Michigan isn’t an elite team, they are, but I am here to point out that if you say they are elite then you have to say so is Wisconsin.
Having said that, I point out Wisconsin has exactly the same amount of conference championships in the past 19 years as Michigan, has made one more Rose Bowl appearance, appeared in just one less BCS bowl game overall (5 to 6), but have won more Rose Bowls, won the same amount of BCS games, and have a better overall bowl game record. So, tell me again how Michigan is somehow “Elite” and Wisconsin isn’t?
You may say what about the records of the teams? Even there the argument doesn’t hold water. Wisconsin has won 3 more games than Michigan in the past 19 years. True they’ve played 5 more games, but Wisconsin has 4 ties to it’s record to Michigan’s none and that makes a huge difference. Truthfully, the winning percentages aren’t that far off either (.737 to .680) in that time. The only thing you could say is that Michigan holds an 8-6 advantage in games played between the two in the past 19 years, but that close record just proves my point, Wisconsin is nearly an equal to Michigan when matched up on the field and that would put them into the “Elite” category. Michigan won 6 games in a row from 1997-2002 in the series, but since then it’s 4-3 Wisconsin, so you see the ebb and flow of the past 19 seasons play out in the series history.
Now I know perception can be reality and that may play a part in all of this, but when perception and actual FACTS don’t mesh I’ll take the side of FACTS every time. Those FACTS tell me that there are no longer two elite teams in the Big Ten, over the last 19 years there are four teams that are worthy of elite status in the Big Ten and they are Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin and that’s the truth. (Nebraska could jump in there, but talk to me in 19 years and let’s see where they are)
It’s time to stop thinking that Michigan is any better than Penn State or Wisconsin and it’s time to realize that these teams belong in the same category. Wisconsin is ELITE, period.
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