When: Saturday, Sept. 27 at 11am CT
Where: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, Wis.
TV: ESPNU
Radio: Badger Sports Network
All-Time Series: First meeting
Last Meeting: First meeting
Wisconsin will welcome head coach Willie Taggart and his South Florida Bulls to Camp Randall for the first time on Saturday. It may end up being a bit of a rough welcome though, as the Badgers and Bulls appear to be at opposite ends of the college football world.
South Florida has already taken on two “Power 5” opponents and has given up an average of 36.5 points, 215.5 yards rushing and 237.5 yards passing in games against Maryland and North Carolina State. Those stats are telling, but they don’t tell the full story.
The Bulls feature one of the most productive freshmen running backs in the country in Marlon Mack, who has 502 yards and five touchdowns. His 502 yards rank him 10th nationally and his five rushing touchdowns put him in a tie for 11th.
Wisconsin may not be challenged much by South Florida’s defense, but don’t think there isn’t a challenge on the other side of the ball…and that brings us to our position breakdown!
Position Breakdown:
Wisconsin Pass Offense vs. South Florida Pass Defense:
UW Passing Stats: 451 yards, 5 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 150.5 yards per game, 11 yards per catch
USF Pass D Stats: 937 yards, 7 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 142 yards per game, 10.4 yards per catch
This could be the difference between a blowout and a close game for Wisconsin. See, the Badgers’ pass game has gotten better since the season opener and the relationship between quarterback Tanner McEvoy and tight end Sam Arneson is one that could really bother the Bulls defense.
For UW, this game could be about experimenting a bit more in the pass game to help find a second receiving threat on the outside besides Alex Erickson.
USF does bring a decent pass defense to the table, as they like to swarm to the ball and are adept at creating turnovers. That’s the part that scares me about Wisconsin not simply staying with the ground and pound in this game. Yet, it is vital to continue McEvoy’s development.
Advantage: Wisconsin (slightly)
Wisconsin Rushing Offense vs. South Florida Rushing Defense:
UW Rushing Stats: 1,079 yards, 12 touchdowns, 7.8 yards per carry, 359.7 yards per game
USF Rush D Stats: 568 yards, 7 touchdowns, 3.8 yards per carry, 142 yards per game
A quick look at the stats would suggest the Badgers may be in for a tougher time than they were a week ago on the ground. However, like we mentioned earlier two really bad opponents skew these numbers.
When Maryland and N.C. State combine to average 215.5 yards on the ground, just imagine what the Badgers running game could do against said defense. Furthermore, imagine what the version of Melvin Gordon we saw last week could do against a defense like that?
USF will counter the Badgers’ run-heavy offense with a very attacking style of defense — one that reminds me of what UW likes to do on that side of the ball. Hopefully having seen that defense all spring and fall camps long will serve the Badgers offensive line well. 321-pound nose guard Todd Chandler, who has 11 tackles to his name and can be a tough block for the Badger offensive line, leads it.
All of that said, UW appears to be getting in to the groove offensively. I’m taking Melvin Gordon over any defense any day of the week.
Advantage: Wisconsin
South Florida Pass Offense vs. Wisconsin Pass Defense:
USF Pass Stats: 567 yards, 2 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 141.8 yards per game, 14.2 yards per catch
UW Pass D Stats: 525 yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 175 yards per game, 14.2 yards per catch
The simple truth is that USF is dead in the water if it has to turn to its passing game to win a football game. Quarterback Mike White was put in a tough situation last season, but he hasn’t progressed at all in the passing category this season. He’s completing less than 40 percent of his passes and has more than double the number of touchdowns for interceptions. That should tell you about all you need to know about the Bulls’ passing attack.
It’s hard to win games when you’re offensive numbers look like what a defenses numbers should against the pass, especially when you want to be an offense that can pass the ball as much as it runs.
What the Badgers need to see is the continued development of freshman free safety Lubern Figaro. He gets better by the game and would’ve picked off that pass last week with or without the tip from Derek Landisch. The trick for Wisconsin will be making sure it doesn’t turn little dinks and dunks in to big gainers. Confidence to a struggling quarterback can do wonders, and UW doesn’t want to wake a potential sleeping giant.
Advantage: Wisconsin
South Florida Rush Offense vs. Wisconsin Rush Defense:
USF Rushing Stats: 605 yards, 6 touchdowns, 4 yards per carry, 151.2 yards per game
UW Rush D Stats: 273 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2.6 yards per carry, 91 yards per game
This is the matchup that most intrigues me on Saturday. The Badgers have been great against the run all season long, but gave up a few big plays here and there during the LSU game. Since then it’s been lockdown against the run.
But, the Bulls bring not only a very talented running back, but a veteran offensive line in to Camp Randall. That combination can be lethal to a team. Freshman Marlon Mack is the real deal, having watched him work over the past few weeks and he’s getting plenty of holes to run through with this offensive line.
The Badgers don’t have Warren Herring and likely won’t have him back till late October now, and they could really use him against this athletic and big USF offensive line.
Let’s not get it twisted though, Wisconsin bottled up LSU’s run game save for a big play, and it isn’t allowing opponents with speed to burn to get it going either. UW has seen all styles of run game so far this season and passed all the tests.
Don’t expect that to change much on Saturday, although it wouldn’t be surprising to see Mack go for close to 75 yards on the day — given his talent level.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Staff Predictions:
Andy (2-1 season record) – Wisconsin 55, South Florida 13
I nearly nailed the exact score last week, and would’ve if Bowling Green learned how to tackle a running back in the fourth quarter. That said, I see this one playing out much like last week did. The only difference is the Bulls aren’t going to be throwing the ball all over the field like the Falcons wanted to last week.
It means Wisconsin likely won’t get close to 70 because of a clock that will move much faster. However, its defense will also be on point and give up at most one touchdown.
Jay (1-0 w/ exact score of LSU game) – Wisconsin 45, South Florida 13
Hopefully this is one last blowout before heading into the conference slate. I see the Badgers again running at will, and while McEvoy hasn’t been perfect, he’s definitely showing improvements. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Badgers test the passing game a little more this game, as it doesn’t matter how dominant your running game is against good teams if you have no passing game to keep them honest.
Prognostications:
– Michael Caputo gets an interception and leads team in tackles with 15: Caputo is starting to get recognized as one of the most productive and feared defenders in the Big Ten, and rightfully so. Through three games he’s averaging seven tackles and has a team-best 21 tackles. However, last week we also saw his skill in covering the deep ball. I expect Caputo to be heavily involved in stopping the run, but I also foresee Mike White making a mistake over the middle in the pass game and Caputo taking advantage of it.
– Marlon Mack gets held to under 50 yards rushing: Sure, the early returns this season are good for the Badger run defense, but Mack is the best back the Badgers have seen since LSU and that means it’s time to make another statement to the rest of the Big Ten. While Mack is averaging over 125 yards a game, he’s doing it against inferior defenses. UW shows him what a real defense looks like and completely shuts him down.
– Melvin Gordon Goes for 200 yards..again: Last week I called Gordon going for 200 yards, and I was off by 53…in an amazing way. This week I take a look at USF’s defense and see plenty of opportunity for Gordon to run wild again. However, this time I see him getting loose on a jet sweep and at least two runs of over 50 yards. As I’ve said before, we’ve got to learn to soak in the moments of greatness from Gordon, because he’ll be gone sooner than any of us think. Oh, and as added measure…Gordon gets to that 200-yard mark before the first half is over (Ya, I’m upping the ante on this one).
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