When: Saturday, Oct. 4, 2:30pm CT
Where: Ryan Field; Evanston, Ill.
TV: ESPN2
Radio: Badger Sports Network
All-Time Series: Wisconsin leads, 57-33-5
Last Meeting: Wisconsin W, 35-6 (2013)
Finally Big Ten play has arrived for the Badgers, and up first is new division foe Northwestern. Just how new is Northwestern to the Badgers? Well, only secondary coach Ben Strickland has ever been to Ryan Field in Evanston as a player or coach.
It means going against the unknown in terms of stadium, but the team on the field is far from unknown. Wisconsin saw virtually the same team it will see on Saturday last season in its 35-6 win. So, this Badgers team isn’t going to be surprised by what Northwestern will want to do or try to do to them this weekend.
Northwestern isn’t the slouch a lot of fans took them for after a few losses to open the season, as it just went to Penn State and played a nearly complete game in winning 29-6. Could it be that the Wildcats have finally figured things out?
What we can do is throw all the talk about Ryan Field killing the Badgers in the past out the window, and we can throw a lot of the talk about Northwestern being down out of the window too. With a clean slate in narratives, let’s break down what
Position Breakdown:
Wisconsin Pass Offense vs. Northwestern Pass Defense:
UW Passing Stats: 611 yards, 6 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 152.8 yards per game, 11.8 yards per catch
NU Pass D Stats: 988 yards, 6 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 247 yards per game, 11.4 yards per catch
Wisconsin may have caught a huge break as star Northwestern safety Ibraheim Campbell was ruled out for this game on Thursday, and that means gone is his ball hawking and play making. He came in to this game with an interception, 1 pass defensed and two pass break ups to go along with 23 tackles.
That means the Badgers will be going against a green safety in redshirt freshman Godwin Igwebuike. He’s appeared in all four games, but has just seven tackles to his stat line.
It could mean a big day for tight end Sam Arneson, who has exploited matchups up the seam all season long. Look for him to have a big role in the pass game because of Igwebuike’s inexperience.
Yet, UW still could have trouble with the attacking nature of this pass rush overall. Northwestern has 12 sacks as a team, putting them in a tie for fifth place in the Big Ten. Wisconsin’s pass protection hasn’t been stellar all season long, so this could be an interesting test.
Had the Wildcats had Campbell in the lineup this would’ve been advantage Wildcats, but that’s not the reality of the situation.
Advantage: Wisconsin (slightly)
Wisconsin Rushing Offense vs. Northwestern Rushing Defense:
UW Rushing Stats: 1,373 yards, 14 touchdowns, 7.0 yards per carry, 343.2 yards per game
NU Rush D Stats: 469 yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, 2.9 yards per carry, 117.2 yards per game
Look at Northwestern’s stats and you might be impressed, but then again its opponents haven’t exactly been known to be rushing powers to date. Cal and Western Illinois aren’t exactly looking to run the ball down your throat, while last week’s opponent Penn State isn’t exactly burning things up on the ground despite wanting to.
That leaves Northern Illinois, whose DNA is all about the run. NIU rushed for 221 yards on 55 carries (yes 55), so there’s a bit of truth behind the numbers for Northwestern.
However, name the running back for any of those teams? The Badgers have proven all season long that they can run on just about anyone they really want to, and the last two weeks have been great examples of that.
The offensive line is getting a nasty streak going and both Melvin Gordon (612 yards, 153 yards a game) and Corey Clement (290 yards, 5.2 yards per carry) have shown that they can take control of a game any time they want to.
While Northwestern’s defense has some nice parts to it, the front seven is in no way on the same level as the Badgers run game.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Northwestern Pass Offense vs. Wisconsin Pass Defense:
NU Pass Stats: 943 yards, 4 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 235.8 yards per game, 10.7 yards per catch
UW Pass D Stats: 698 yards, 2 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 174.5 yards per game, 15.5 yards per catch
This is the Badgers’ first opponent that wants to pass the ball first all season long. However, Wisconsin has also been really good at clamping down against a pass offense when it needs to. Hell, it has given up just two passing touchdowns all season long, and both came in the season opener against LSU.
What will be interesting about this matchup is Wisconsin’s propensity to give up the big play, as evidenced by the 15.5 yards per catch average. It’s not exactly how Northwestern has gone about their passing game, as NU likes the short and intermediate passing game. Their longest pass of the season has been for 54 yards, while they also clearly struggle throwing the ball while in the red zone.
For a team with 150 attempts to only have four touchdowns is a bit crazy.
The question for Wisconsin is if it can handle the tempo and if Michael Caputo will be able to be used in his usual role around the line of scrimmage. He’s so effective there, that using him strictly as a deep safety is a waste of his talent.
Seeing both teams play, Wisconsin may give up a big play or two but it won’t allow Northwestern to carve them up thanks to the aggressive nature of the defensive scheme. Dave Aranda is the great equalizer, and expect him to have a few things to say on Saturday.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Northwestern Rush Offense vs. Wisconsin Rush Defense:
NU Rushing Stats: 499 yards, 7 touchdowns, 3.0 yards per carry, 112.2 yards per game
UW Rush D Stats: 345 yards, 4 touchdowns, 2.8 yards per carry, 86.2 yards per game
Northwestern hasn’t had a 100-yard rusher all season long, but they do have an intriguing talent in freshman running back Justin Jackson who had a 92-yard game against Western Illinois.
On the other side, Wisconsin hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher since Kenny Hill did it for LSU in the opener. UW’s defense comes in as the third best run defense in the Big Ten and the ninth ranked run defense in the country.
What will be telling in this matchup is Wisconsin’s defensive line against the Northwestern offensive line. That group has had major issues giving Jackson and the rest of the running back group any holes to run through, and the Badgers have been very disruptive against the run.
This should be a big advantage for the Badgers, even if Jackson is perhaps the fastest back they’ve faced to date.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Staff Predictions:
Andy (3-1 season record) – Wisconsin 35, South Florida 24
Wisconsin has been erratic in terms of hitting anywhere near my score predictions, but this is Big Ten play and its also a Big Ten road game. Northwestern appears to be heading in to a more competitive direction as of late, so I give them a chance to hang with the Badgers unlike last year. Look for Wisconsin to need a touchdown late in the fourth quarter to put the Wildcats away.
Paul Kilgas (1st pick of the season) – Wisconsin 24, Northwestern 7
The field in Evanston is purposely cut long to minimize speed advantages of opponents. The Wildcats look for every single opportunity to gain an upper hand and minimize their talent differential but Wisconsin is too physical for Northwestern. Pat Fitzgerald has instilled a different attitude over the past few weeks about playing big boy football, but Wisconsin has been playing that way for years and the difference will manifest itself as the game wears on. Wisconsin’s defense has by and large been phenomenal this year, and Northwestern is steadfastly opposed to throwing the ball downfield, which has been the UW defense’s undoing in recent years. The lack of big playmakers and an uncertain identity on offense will lead to a futile effort against Wisconsin.
Prognostications:
– Derek Landisch gets 3 sacks: Northwestern’s offensive line doesn’t deal well with blitzes, and Landisch happens to be pretty good at it. It also helps that Trevor Siemian isn’t one to take off at will once he’s in the pocket. Look for that combination to help Landisch get his sack total up there.
– McEvoy throws a 40-plus yard touchdown pass: Wisconsin fans have been clamoring for a deep passing game to develop with McEvoy under center. On Saturday they’ll find it for the first time all season long, as McEvoy will hook up with either Sam Arneson for a long one or Wisconsin will get something out of a wide receiver not named Alex Erickson. Each week the pass game has taken a positive step and this is the next one on the list.
– Melvin Gordon gets three rushing touchdowns of 30-plus yards: If there’s one thing we know about Melvin Gordon it’s that he’s more than capable of busting any play for a long run, and even if the Northwestern field is meant to slow the Badgers’ run game down a bit, it won’t matter to Gordon. Look for him to bust loose for at least three long touchdowns runs in this one.
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