When: Saturday, Oct. 11, 11am CT
Where: Camp Randall Stadium; Madison, WI
TV: ESPN2
Radio: Badger Sports Network
All-Time Series: Wisconsin leads, 37-36-1
Last Meeting: Wisconsin W, 56-32 (2013)
Chances are few in the current generation at UW would think of this matchup as being between two equals. Yet, over the course of the history of these two programs it’s hard to get closer than the Badgers and Illini are over the course of time.
Luckily, this game isn’t played in the past and in the here and now Wisconsin comes in with a massive chip on its shoulder. Many questions remain in regards to Wisconsin’s offense — like how the two QB system will work or will any of the freshmen playmakers finally stand up and be noticed?
As for the Illini, they’re going to come in equally upset after last weekend. After all, they did lose to Purdue at home. That’s embarrassing, and if the Illini lose this one on Saturday their head coach could be in major jeopardy.
That’s not really the Badgers’ problem though, and most likely they’d love to send him packing with a butt-kicking in the Big Ten opener in Madison.
Position Breakdown:
Wisconsin Pass Offense vs. Illinois Pass Defense:
UW Passing Stats: 749 yards, 7 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 149.8 yards per game, 11.7 yards per catch
UI Pass D Stats: 1,397 yards, 9 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 232.8 yards per game, 12.8 yards per catch
This is the biggest unknown on Saturday, as the Badgers are going with both Joel Stave and Tanner McEvoy at quarterback. What we do know is that Stave will be the starter, and that means a likely emphasis on trying to push the ball down the field.
Problem is, outside of Alex Erickson there hasn’t been enough production from the rest of the wide receiver group to make it work. However, the coaching staff has talked all week about getting the young kids in on the action, and Rushing has been close to having a breakout game for a few weeks now.
The combination of Stave in at quarterback and a youthful receiving group could be very interesting. Ultimately, the fact that teams are able to carve up this secondary gives UW an ever-so-slight advantage.
Advantage: Wisconsin (slightly)
Wisconsin Rushing Offense vs. Illinois Rushing Defense:
UW Rushing Stats: 1,657 yards, 15 touchdowns, 7.1 yards per carry, 331.4 yards per game
UI Rush D Stats: 1,497 yards, 14 rushing touchdowns, 4.8 yards per carry, 249.5 yards per game
Another week, another huge statistical advantage for the Badgers over their opponent on paper. One blind look at the stats and you’d think this was a non-conference opponent for Wisconsin, given the horrid numbers and the No. 122 ranking for the rush defense.
Gordon has set career highs for rushing in a single game in two of the last three outings. Could it be three of the last four? You can bet this team is going to play with a chip on its shoulder, including in the one area that wasn’t a problem last week against Northwestern — the run game.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Illinois Pass Offense vs. Wisconsin Pass Defense:
UI Pass Stats: 1,997 yards, 14 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 332.8 yards per game, 12.7 yards per catch
UW Pass D Stats: 880 yards, 3 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 176.0 yards per game, 14.7 yards per catch
Most of the Illini numbers have come with Wes Lunt at the helm of the offense, and he’s been unquestionably the best pure passing quarterback in the Big Ten. So, that means advantage Wisconsin, right?
Not so fast my friends, this team is still loaded with talented wide receivers and many capable weapons. True freshman Mike Dudek has been a star from the first game on, ranking third the Big Ten in receptions (33). He’s got a lot of help from the likes of Geronimo Allison (26 receptions, 4 touchdowns) and Martize Barr.
The question is, just how accurate and capable senior Riley O’Toole will be in running Bill Cubit’s offense.
What will be interesting to see is how or if sophomore Aaron Bailey has his redshirt (no, that’s not a misprint) pulled. If that happens the pass game could be taking a smaller role in this game.
Advantage: Illinois
Illinois Rush Offense vs. Wisconsin Rush Defense:
UI Rushing Stats: 576 yards, 8 touchdowns, 3.6 yards per carry, 96 yards per game
UW Rush D Stats: 548 yards, 5 touchdowns, 3.2 yards per carry, 109.6 yards per game
Last weekend wasn’t fun for the Badgers in the rush defense department, giving up over 200 yards on the ground to Northwestern. As they head in to this game, its safe to say UW’s defense is looking to make that a fluke occurrence rather than the norm.
Despite the ho-hum numbers for the Illini on the ground, Badger fans should know better than to sleep on running back Josh Ferguson. He averaged over five yards a carry in 2013, and has the speed and power to be a dangerous weapon in the run game. Ferguson is also a dangerous pass catcher out of the backfield.
That said, look for Wisconsin to make sure it takes things away on the ground. If Illinois becomes multi-dimensional in this game, Wisconsin is going to be in trouble.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Staff Predictions:
Andy (3-2 season record) – Wisconsin 51, Illinois 20
There are plenty of questions that will get answers on Saturday, but that good thing is that situation is true on both sides of the ball. At the end of the day, Wisconsin has the best player on the field and perhaps the country in Melvin Gordon. Combine his skill with a defense that’s more than capable and you have what should be another win in a Big Ten home opener for the Badgers.
Jay Swenson (3-0) – Wisconsin 38, Illinois 17
Illinois gives up a lot of points and this weekend won’t be any different. The Badgers running game will be enough to get the bad taste out of our mouths from last week. While the slight National Championship hope is gone, the Badgers still have a good shot at winning the Big Ten West Division. Lose Saturday, and kiss that good-bye.
Prognostications:
– Derek Landisch creates 2 turnovers: Illinois is a turnover prone football team, with 13 of them to rank second to last in the Big Ten. Landisch was a bit quiet last week, but I see a big game ahead for him. In fact, I see at least one sack/fumble situation and an interception coming the way of Landisch on Saturday.
– McEvoy Ends Game as Starter: My biggest question to those who wanted McEvoy out in favor of Stave is this – if the offensive line couldn’t protect for McEvoy, how exactly is putting the immobile Stave back there going to work out any better? Last week it didn’t work out all that well (see three interceptions). I think what we’re going to find out this week is that Wisconsin needs McEvoy’s mobility more than they need Stave’s alleged ability to hit a deep ball (still waiting for those deep balls to come down from outer space last week, btw).
– Melvin Gordon gets three rushing touchdowns of 30-plus yards: I was so damn close to getting this one to happen last week that I’m sticking with it this week. Illinois may want to stuff the box and stop Gordon, but they’ve been trying everything to stop the run game all season long and it hasn’t mattered one bit. Purdue ripped them a new one last week and Gordon is light years ahead of anyone the Boilermakers put on the field. Look for Gordon to rip off a series of long distance touchdowns.
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