When: Saturday, Nov. 15, 2:30pm CT
Where: Camp Randall Stadium; Madison, WI
TV: ESPN
Radio: Badger Sports Network
Last Meeting: Wisconsin Win, 70-31 (2012 Big Ten Championship game)
All-Time Series: Tied, 4-4
Position Breakdowns:
Wisconsin Pass Offense vs. Nebraska Pass Defense:
UW Passing Stats: 1,374 yards, 11 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 152.7 yards per game, 11.7 yards per catch
NEB Pass D Stats: 1,944 yards, 9 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 216 yards per game, 12.4 yards per catch
Nine straight completions by a Badger quarterback? What happened and what did you do with the Badgers offense of this season. Last week we all got a glimmer of hope that UW has an actual passing game. Wisconsin passed for 225 yards and two touchdowns. However, that was against Purdue and Nebraska is a different animal.
Sure it was great to see Kenzel Doe and Jordan Fredrick get multiple-catch games like they did last week and it was a sign of improvement, but the Huskers have a great pass defense. They’ve allowed just nine passing touchdowns, picked off 11 balls and opposing quarterbacks are completing just 46.9 percent of their passes.
It’s part pass rush and part pretty good secondary. Wisconsin needs to give its two quarterbacks time to throw (or run in McEvoy’s case) and it needs to avoid the bad decision, because Huskers safety Nate Gerry is rather adept at picking the ball off (tied for conference lead with 5 interceptions).
Advantage: Nebraska
Wisconsin Rushing Offense vs. Nebraska Rushing Defense:
UW Rushing Stats: 2,931 yards, 31 touchdowns, 7.0 yards per carry, 325.7 yards per game
NEB Rush D Stats: 1,114 yards, 12 touchdowns, 3.7 yards per carry, 123.8 yards per game
Melvin Gordon just came off his third 200-yard game of the season, but this will be by far his toughest test since LSU. It’s also worth noting that in said LSU game, Gordon was going off before an injury and some coaching decisions kept him out of all but the first carry of the second half.
If UW gets more of what they’ve gotten all season from Gordon and Corey Clement, it could be a long day for the Huskers defense. However, the biggest battle is likely to come up front, and that is where the Badgers have a pretty decent advantage.
While Randy Gregory is a nice defensive end, he’s better against the pass than the run and this team is just middle of the pack in tackles for loss (58 as a team). The Badgers offensive line will need to win the battle with defensive tackle Vincent Valentine if they are to get the run game going.
My money is on the Badgers pounding Nebraska’s front seven in to submission. Why? Just look at what Michigan State (arguably the best running team the Huskers have faced) did to them. MSU racked up 188 yards on the ground, with Jermey Langford going for 111 yards. Heck, Justin Jackson of Northwestern was able to rack up over 100 yards at Nebraska as well.
If that can happen, imagine what Gordon and Clement can do?
Advantage: Wisconsin
Nebraska Pass Offense vs. Wisconsin Pass Defense:
NEB Pass Stats: 1,889 yards, 15 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 209.9 yards per game, 14.8 yards per catch
UW Pass D Stats: 1,207 yards, 6 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 150.9 yards per game, 12.8 yards per catch
While everyone wants to talk about Ameer Abdullah, the real secret to success in this game is finding a way to hit the Badgers for some big plays in the passing game. That’s way easier said than done though, as the Badgers are the No. 3-ranked passing defense in the country and the seven touchdowns given up are 5th best in the nation.
Nebraska will challenge with Kenny Bell, who owns and will own many Nebraska receiving records. Yet, he isn’t the only big receiving threat the Badgers have faced this season, and that history points to a defense capable of containing him.
UW shut down Rutgers’ Leonte Carroo to just two catches for 33 yards, Illinois’ freshman phenom Mike Dudek had four catches for 58 yards and no touchdowns and held Maryland’s Stefon Diggs to just one meaningless 21-yard touchdown at the end of a 52-7 ass kicking.
However, what makes this Nebraska team different than all but Maryland is that they’ve got two very good wide receivers. They’ll also look to Jordan Westerkamp to help them, and that means UW needs Sojourn Shelton to continue his recent improvement.
While all of that is good, let’s not forget about the guy throwing those passes, and that’s where the Badgers could be at a major advantage. See, Nebraska’s Tommy Armstrong has accuracy issues and happy feet at times. He’s completed just 53 percent of his passes, which is next to last among Big Ten quarterbacks who’ve played 75 percent of his teams snaps and thrown at least 15 passes per game.
If the Badgers want to win, they need to get to the quarterback, and that’s where its advantage comes to the forefront. Derek Landisch and Vince Biegel have been masters at getting to the QB as of late and they’ll be going against a Huskers offensive line that has surrendered just nine sacks all season long.
Advantage: Push
Nebraska Rush Offense vs. Wisconsin Rush Defense:
NEB Rushing Stats: 2,526 yards, 30 touchdowns, 5.9 yards per carry, 280.7 yards per game
UW Rush D Stats: 849 yards, 7 touchdowns, 2.9 yards per carry, 94.3 yards per game
Last week the Badgers got arguably their biggest challenge from a running back all season long in the form of Akeem Hunt. The UW defense passed with flying colors, holding Hunt to just 12 yards on nine carries.
Now, Ameer Abdullah is way better than Hunt and is one of the frontrunners for the Heisman Trophy. However, we simply don’t know how good Abdullah will be thanks to a sprained MCL that has had a bye week to get healthier. Will he be as effective and dangerous as he was before the injury?
We saw a similar scenario play out with Rutgers QB Gary Nova, and it didn’t work out well for him on the run. Given UW’s ability to bottle up the run all season long, including against some of the better backs in the Big Ten, look for them to hold Abdullah to under 100 yards rushing.
Where the Huskers could have an advantage is getting Abdullah going in the pass game. We’ve seen the Badgers struggle against backs catching passes out of the backfield this season, and it will be paramount to make sure Abdullah’s pass-catching abilities are limited.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Staff Predictions:
Andy (7-2 season record) – Wisconsin 31, Nebraska 17
The question for me in this game is if you buy in to the numbers on both sides of the ball for the Badgers. UW’s defensive numbers are eye-poppingly good, ranking them in the top 5 nationally in all four major categories. Yes, they’ll be tested at times, but I’m not sold Abdullah is going to be 100 percent, and Nebraska needs that against the Badgers defense. I also believe that we’ll see enough of an inventive gameplan on offense to allow the Badgers to get two or three big play touchdowns, and that will be the difference in the game.
Jay (6-0 season record) – Nebraska 24, Wisconsin 21
It’s been a while since the Badgers have had a tough game and Northwestern shouldn’t have even been one. Heading into the season, even with a close loss to LSU, this is when the season was supposed to get interesting. It still is, as Wisconsin can still win the wide open B1G West, but the question is, will they? The Cornhuskers are a solid team that will be able to score on the Badgers strong defense. The question then, is will the Badgers offense be enough? Sadly, I don’t think so. Gordon and Clement will keep up their dominance, but I see Stave throwing at least one pick, and McEvoy not being able to do much in the passing game either. It’s a close one, but Nebraska gets the win on the road.
Prognostications:
– Michael Caputo gets an INT: People seem to forget that Caputo is a safety, and that he can play well against the pass too. He’ll remind folks, as I believe he’ll be the pass game spy on Abdullah and he’ll be set up for an easy interception in that case, as Armstrong loves to telegraph his passes.
– Tanner McEvoy runs and passes for a TD: We’ve seen the Badgers two-quarterback system evolve over the past few weeks, and last week we even saw in-series switches. As offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig continues to evolve that gameplan, look to him to use McEvoy more and more around the goal line. That mean’s he’ll need to allow McEvoy to throw the football down there. So, in my mind, it shouldn’t be a stretch to see him throw a short TD pass and find a way to break a long run as well.
– Kenzel Doe returns a punt for a TD: It has felt like Doe was ready to break one or two already this season. On Saturday, the senior who is second in return yards per game in the Big Ten, gets his just rewards. He’ll take a Huskers punting mistake back for a touchdown in this one. Yep, I’m going balls to the wall crazy in my prognostications this week folks (go big, or go home).
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
