When: Saturday, Nov. 22, 2:30pm CT
Where: Kinnick Stadium; Iowa City, Iowa
TV: ABC
Radio: Badger Sports Network
Last Meeting: Wisconsin Win, 28-9 at Iowa
All-Time Series: Wisconsin leads 43-42-2
Position Breakdowns:
Wisconsin Pass Offense vs. Iowa Pass Defense:
UW Passing Stats: 1,420 yards, 12 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 142 yards per game, 11.5 yards per catch
IOWA Pass D Stats: 1,768 yards, 12 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 176.8 yards per game, 11.9 yards per catch
Big Ten Rankings:
UW Pass Off: 13th
Iowa Pass D: 2nd
Did Wisconsin even complete a pass last weekend? With all the excitement about the day Melvin Gordon had, UW really didn’t need much out of its passing game. It showed, as Stave passed the ball just 11 times and the longest UW completion was for 13 yards. Yet, Stave managed to get a touchdown pass on his record.
It’s no secret that Wisconsin isn’t going to chuck the ball all over the field, but it can’t rely on having Gordon and Clement go off every week, and this could be one of the weeks that UW needs its passing game.
The Hawkeyes, just so happen to have one of the better cornerback tandems in the conference though. Greg Mabin and Desmond King are impressive, and safeties John Lowdermilk and Jordan Lowmax are an experienced pair.
If there’s one area that UW could exploit the secondary, it could be with its tight ends, as Iowa has had difficulty with the size and speed combos. That smacks of a big game coming from Sam Arneson and Troy Fumagalli.
Yet, don’t expect the overall passing game to go nuts on Saturday, Iowa is just too good against the pass.
Advantage: Iowa
Wisconsin Rushing Offense vs. Iowa Rushing Defense:
UW Rushing Stats: 3,512 yards, 38 touchdowns, 7.5 yards per carry, 351.2 yards per game
IOWA Rush D Stats: 1,478 yards, 12 touchdowns, 4.0 yards per carry, 147.8 yards per game
Big Ten Rankings:
UW Rush Off: 1st
Iowa Rush D: 6th
MELGOR.
The man had his Heisman moment, now it’s all about finding the single-season school record, which he’s just 201 yards away from breaking. If he can top Ron Dayne’s school record this week anyone else can kiss the Heisman Trophy goodbye.
Gordon doesn’t need to, and certainly won’t rush for over 400 yards, but he does need to be very productive early on if the Badgers are going to do anything on offense. Gordon and Clement need to establish momentum early, as the Hawkeyes have some very nice pieces on the defensive line.
Thinking the rankings and stats mean they can’t bottle UW up would be an unwise move. With Louis Trinca-Pasat, Carl Davis and Drew Ott, Iowa has one of the more attacking defensive lines in the Big Ten. That means the Badgers offensive line needs to be on its game once again.
At the end of the day, this is the one matchup that will determine a Badger victory or loss. If UW gets over 300 yards as a team, you can bet the Badgers leave Kinnick with the Heartland Trophy once again.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Iowa Pass Offense vs. Wisconsin Pass Defense:
Iowa Pass Stats: 2,363 yards, 15 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 236.3 yards per game, 11.2 yards per catch
UW Pass D Stats: 1,473 yards, 8 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 147.3 yards per game, 12.6 yards per catch
Big Ten Rankings:
Iowa Pass Off: 5th
UW Pass D: 1st
Iowa quarterback Jake Rudock may be the most consistent passing quarterback the Badgers have faced all season long. He’s completing 63.9 percent of his passes this season, which is second in the Big Ten amongst quarterbacks.
However, Rudock hasn’t seen a pass defense as good as this one all season long (and its not even close). The next closest was Minnesota, and that ended in a 51-14 butt kicking in Minneapolis. Still, this could be a fun matchup between the Badgers attacking front seven and Iowa’s sturdy offensive line. If the Badgers can get the blitz going, Rudock can make some bad decisions with the football. More of what happened last weekend in terms of the blitz and UW could easily have a pick or two to add to its season total.
The wide receiver versus secondary matchup is also advantageous to the Badgers, as none of the Hawkeyes are that huge of a deep threat. Sure, tight end Jake Duzey could be a matchup nightmare, but UW has handled better tight ends and better passing attacks with ease this season.
Look for the nation’s third-ranked pass defense to have very little trouble keeping the Hawkeyes in check this weekend.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Iowa Rush Offense vs. Wisconsin Rush Defense:
IOWA Rushing Stats: 1,633 yards, 19 touchdowns, 4.1 yards per carry, 163.3 yards per game
UW Rush D Stats: 967 yards, 9 touchdowns, 2,9 yards per carry, 96.7 yards per game
Big Ten Rankings:
Iowa Rush Off: 7th
Wis Rush D: 2nd
Iowa seems to have found some semblance of a run game in recent weeks, but the Badgers have been stingy at worst and downright shutdown at its best all season long. Mark Weisman has been a workhorse, but hasn’t been what he was in the last few seasons. However, Iowa has unleashed some of freshman Akrum Wadley as of late and he’s proven to be someone that can be dynamic.
Speaking of dynamic, let’s talk about the best statistical rush defense the Badgers have had in half a decade. Wisconsin just got done stuffing star Ameer Abdullah for 68 yards on 17 carries. Sure, Abdullah wasn’t 100 percent, but the Badgers haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in six games. Heck, only two running backs all season have managed to top the 100-yard mark on this Badgers defense.
Is it possible that Weisman or Wadley could do it? Sure, but UW has seen more productive running backs and shut them all down this season. Look for more of that if the Badgers are going to win this contest.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Staff Predictions:
Andy (8-2 season record) – Wisconsin 38, Iowa 17
Rivalry game, Kinnick Stadium…some may be scared by this matchup. I’m not, and that’s because I’ll take the more consistent team every day of the week, and that’s the Badgers BY A MILE. Wisconsin may be playing the best overall football of any team in the Big Ten right now, and have perhaps the most confidence going in the conference too. If they can stay confident, but don’t get overconfident than this should be a trip where the Heartland Trophy goes from Madison to Iowa City and right back to Madison.
Jay (6-1 season record) – Wisconsin 38, Iowa 17
The atmosphere in Iowa City should be great and that will help the Hawkeyes get out to an early lead. In fact, I see this one playing out much like the Nebraska game except less turnovers from each side. Iowa is going to pack the box and try to make Wisconsin pass, which, they still might not need to. Wisconsin’s defense comes up big enough and Gordon rushes for 200 yards yet again. All that stands between the Badgers and a trip to Indianapolis is the axe.
Prognostications:
– Melvin Gordon breaks Ron Dayne’s single-season rushing record: While some may want to see it happen inside Camp Randall Stadium, on what is likely to be Gordon’s final game in a Badger uniform, that wish won’t be granted. Gordon is too close to the record and too likely to break a long run or three, and both Andy and Jay see him going for 200 yards or more. That means Dayne’s record is clearly in jeopardy. Gordon gets his fifth 200-yard game of the season and just barely breaks the record.
– Warren Herring gets two sacks: The Badgers big man in the middle has been kind of quiet on the stat sheet, but after watching last week’s game back a time or two, Herring was deeply involved in the pressure that was put on Tommy Armstrong. He ended that game two tackles and one forced fumble, but this week he turns it loose and gets a couple of sacks on Rudock.
– Troy Fumagalli gets more catches than Arneson: One of the more interesting developments since seeing Joel Stave take over most of the passing duties in the Badgers offense has been the emergence of Fumagalli. He’s got nine catches for 133 yards this season, and while that’s less than half the number of catches Arneson has, Fumagalli has just two fewer catches than Arneson in the last four games. Look for this to be the game where Fumagalli gets a few more looks and a few more chances to break out.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
