When: Saturday, Nov. 29, 2:30pm CT
Where: Madison, WI; Camp Randall Stadium
TV: ABC
Radio: Badger Sports Network
Last Meeting: Wisconsin Win, 20-7 (2013)
All-Time Series: Gophs leads 59-56-8
Position Breakdowns:
Wisconsin Pass Offense vs. Gophs Pass Defense:
UW Passing Stats: 1,559 yards, 12 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 14.17 yards per game, 11.5 yards per catch
Gophs Pass D Stats: 2,203 yards, 16 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 200.3 yards per game, 10.5 yards per catch
Big Ten Rankings:
UW Pass Off: 13th
Gophs Pass D: 8th
Ironically, the only team keeping the Badgers from the bottom of the team passing rankings are the Gophs. However, the Badgers haven’t had as much trouble in the passing game as of late. A lot of that has to do with the improvement and poise we’ve seen from junior Joel Stave.
Stave isn’t going to be a world beater at QB, but he’s doing what is needed for his team to win big games. Most interestingly, we’ve seen a really good relationship develop between him and Melvin Gordon. Last week that was the reason UW got the narrow win over Iowa.
That added dimension in the passing game could really be trouble for the Gophs, who don’t get enough credit for their pass defense. The Gophs problem has been giving up the big plays and missing a tackle or three along the way. Coverage-wise, the Gophs are good enough to handle anything the Badgers throw at them.
What will be key is to try and get Alex Erickson going on the edge early on. He’s been quiet over the last four games, mustering up just seven receptions for 51 yards and one touchdown. Wisconsin may need him to help stretch the field considering the likelihood that the Gophs are going to go 9-10 guys in the box all game long.
Advantage: Wisconsin (barely)
Wisconsin Rushing Offense vs. Gophs Rushing Defense:
UW Rushing Stats: 3,778 yards, 41 touchdowns, 7.4 yards per carry, 343.5 yards per game
Gophs Rush D Stats: 1,701 yards, 14 touchdowns, 4.4 yards per carry, 154.6 yards per game
Big Ten Rankings:
UW Rush Off: 1st
Gophs Rush D: 6th
As if there’s any doubt about who has the advantage here. Cue the Big Ten single-season rushing record on Melvin Gordon’s first carry of the game. However, Minnesota isn’t terrible against the run, struggling with teams that spread them out and get outside in the run game.
Considering that seems to be where Gordon does the most damage, you can bet he’s licking his chops at the opportunity in front of him after a ho-hum day by his standards last weekend. The only worry is the status of sophomore Corey Clement, who has been battling a shoulder injury and is going to try to go on Saturday. If he can’t that means Dare Ogbunwolae comes in to a much more important role than mop up duty.
If the Badgers can get to the final quarter with a big lead look for that to mean Gordon did some nice things along the way.
The biggest hurdle in the way of UW’s success against the Gophs defense is middle linebacker Damien Wilson. He is third in the Big Ten with 103 tackles and is the heart and soul of the Gophs defense. If Wisconsin can take him out of the game or make him miss a few times this could be a long game for the Gophs defense.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Gophs Pass Offense vs. Wisconsin Pass Defense:
Gophs Pass Stats: 1,482 yards, 11 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 134.7 yards per game, 14.8 yards per catch
UW Pass D Stats: 1,784 yards, 10 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 162.2 yards per game, 13.0 yards per catch
Big Ten Rankings:
Gophs Pass Off: 14th
UW Pass D: 1st
Wisconsin didn’t fare that well against the pass last weekend, giving up 311 yards on 20 completions. It has to be a worry in this game too, simply because the Gophs love themselves a big play or two in the passing game. We all know that’s been the Badgers’ Achilles heel this season, and the Gophs are pretty good at finding ways to make their passing plays count.
This will also be the the Badgers’ biggest test against a tight end all season long, as Maxx Williams is easily the most dynamic UW has seen at the position all season long. He presents a lot of the same issues Sam Arneson does for the Badgers, only bigger and more athletic.
Outside of Williams though, Wisconsin’s Darius Hillary, Sojourn Shelton and Co. are likely to have a much better performance than last week. They’ll need the confidence should it be a win, because Ohio State’s receiving game is no joke.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Gophs Rush Offense vs. Wisconsin Rush Defense:
Gophs Rushing Stats: 2,518 yards, 28 touchdowns, 4.8 yards per carry, 228.9 yards per game
UW Rush D Stats: 1,068 yards, 10 touchdowns, 2.9 yards per carry, 97.1 yards per game
Big Ten Rankings:
Gophs Rush Off: 6th
Wis Rush D: 2nd
With Ameer Abdullah not even close to 100 percent, welcome to the beset running back the Badgers have faced all season long in David Cobb. However, Cobb appears very questionable to be 100 percent himself after suffering a hamstring injury in the third quarter of the Nebraska game last weekend.
Cobb is a different back than UW is used to facing this season though, because he is a powerhouse, workhorse type of back that will wear a defense down physically — so clearly a hamstring injury hurts his ability to be that kind of back.
That’s where the good news starts for UW in this battle, as facing anyone else but Cobb is a good thing. But, don’t sleep on the underrated Donnell Kirkwood. He had close to 1,000 yards in 2012 and last week racked up 32 yards on seven carries.
What will be tricky for the Badgers is winning the battle up front, as the Gophs offensive line led by Wisconsin native Zac Epping, Tommy Olson and Jonah Pirsig are very underrated nationally. If you want answers as to how the Gophs got to the point of challenging for a division crown, look no further than the offensive line, because they’ve been good.
It will be an intense battle for senior Warren Herring and Co. that’s for sure. However, missing Cobb is going to be a big blow to the chances for the Gophs.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Staff Predictions:
Andy (9-2 season record) – Wisconsin 38, Gophs 21
Wisconsin’s defense has given up some decent points and yardage over the last two weeks, and that’s because of the increased competition level. The question is, just how good is the Gophs run game compared to what the Badgers have been able to do to opposition runners all year? This is going to be Wisconsin’s best challenge since the LSU game at the beginning of the season. However, MELGOR is the biggest difference maker for me and UW’s run game goes wild in a division-clinching win.
Jay (7-1 season record) – Wisconsin 31, Minnesota 21
There hasn’t been bigger hype in the axe game in a long long time and I can’t wait to see this one. Both teams will be fired up and I think it leads to a mistake or two on both sides early. Once the game settles down, Wisconsin’s run attack will be too much for the Gophers to handle and the Badgers head to Indianapolis.
Prognostications:
– Melvin Gordon goes over the 2,300-yard mark: Seeing 200-yard games coming from Melvin Gordon seems too easy, but it’s a rarity for most running backs. That’s just how good Gordon is, and he’ll continue to give himself a chance at the FBS single-season record with another 200-plus yard game on Saturday. Hey, I called him breaking the single-season rushing record last week and one more yard would’ve made that one correct
– Donnell Kirkwood fumbles twice: Wisconsin has seen it’s share of running back fumbles, and against Nebraska it forced its fair share. Look for the Badgers to really go after Kirkwood, who will see the most extensive time he’s seen all season long. Also, the Gophers have lost 7 of 15 fumbles this season as a team, so clearly there are ball security issues. Look for Kirkwood to want to prove something and it end up costing him in a big way.
– Kenzel Doe leads Badgers in receptions: One of the least talked about developments in the past few weeks has been the increased role for senior wide receiver Kenzel Doe. He’s got six receptions and 82 yards over the last three games, with a lot of those receptions coming in big situations. I have a feeling Doe will want to show up big on Senior Day, and if UW wants to play in space with its receivers there isn’t a better player to do that with than Doe. Look for him to grab three or four receptions in this game.
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