When: Saturday, Dec. 6, 7:17pm CT
Where: Indianapolis, IN; Lucas Oil Stadium
TV: FOX
Radio: Badger Sports Network
Last Meeting: No. 4 OSU 31, No. 23 WIS 24; Sept. 28, 2013 (at Columbus)
All-Time Series: OSU leads, 56-18-5
Position Breakdowns:
Wisconsin Pass Offense vs. Ohio State Pass Defense:
UW Passing Stats: 1,774 yards, 14 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 147.8 yards per game, 12.2 yards per catch
OSU Pass D Stats: 2,259 yards, 13 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 188.2 yards per game, 10.6 yards per catch
Big Ten Rankings:
UW Pass Off: 12th
Gophs Pass D: 4th
If there is one worrisome area for the Badgers in this game it is the passing game. Ohio State has been a team of steady improvement and opportunistic football this season. The Buckeyes have had multi-interceptions in half of its Big Ten games, including a four INT game against Maryland and four picks in the last three games alone.
That’s scary to consider because we’ve seen shaky play from the quarterback position this season for the Badgers. However, it seems like Stave and the passing game has turned a corner over the past few weeks.
After throwing four interceptions in the Big Ten opener against Northwestern, Wisconsin has thrown just two interceptions in seven games. Sure, part of the deal is UW doesn’t throw the ball a ton, but that has been the case all season and it is a positive sign that Stave and Co. are making better decisions.
Then there’s the fact that Stave has completed over 60 percent of his passes in each of the last four games.
While the progression is nice, Ohio State’s secondary is easily the best UW has faced since playing Maryland. I’m not sold on trusting UW’s passing game to not make a mistake or two, and OSU will pounce on any of them.
If Wisconsin wants to win, just protect the ball and make smart throws in the pass game.
Advantage: Ohio State
Wisconsin Rushing Offense vs. Ohio State Rushing Defense:
UW Rushing Stats: 4,011 yards, 43 touchdowns, 7.2 yards per carry, 334.2 yards per game
OSU Rush D Stats: 1,747 yards, 21 touchdowns, 4.0 yards per carry, 145.6 yards per game
Big Ten Rankings:
UW Rush Off: 1st
OSU Rush D: 5th
MELGOR.
For many pundits, his name and the combination of no J.T. Barrett has been all they need to know to pick the Badgers to win. It’s hard to disagree with them given the season Gordon has been having, but let’s not forget that OSU’s defense held Gordon to just 74 yards in the loss last season.
You can bet Gordon isn’t forgetting that, just like he didn’t against both Iowa and Minnesota (who also held him under 100 yards last season). In the last two games, Gordon has amassed 351 yards and three touchdowns rushing.
Should Gordon continue that trend it will all come down to the offensive line, and there are questions about the status of center Dan Voltz. If he can’t go or ends up injured that means a lot of shuffling coming the Badgers’ way. Last week we saw Dallas Lewallen slide inside until Voltz returned and that meant Ray Ball next to him. This week it appears Michael Deiter will dress and be an emergency help should things go south.
The good news is that this is a veteran offensive line, and Ball has experience as a backup this season. The bad news is there are three really good defensive linemen across from them. Ohio State gives you Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Joey Bosa, along with Michael Bennet and Adolphus Washington as quality players. Yet, in three of the last four games (and it would’ve been another had Drake Johnson not gone down with a torn ACL) OSU has given up 175 yards or more.
No matter what, the Badgers have one of the best 1-2 punches in the country at running back, with Corey Clement equally capable of going off on a defense. Look for UW to want to establish dominance on the line of scrimmage quickly in this one, and while it would be crazy to think Gordon goes completely nuts, it wouldn’t be a surprising to see him go for 150-175 yards and Clement for another 75.
Advantage: Wisconsin
OSU Pass Offense vs. Wisconsin Pass Defense:
OSU Pass Stats: 2,952 yards, 36 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 246.0 yards per game, 13.9 yards per catch
UW Pass D Stats: 1,879 yards, 10 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 156.6 yards per game, 13.2 yards per catch
Big Ten Rankings:
OSU Pass Off: 2nd
UW Pass D: 1st
One could ask a legitimate question of if the Badgers have really been tested against the pass all season long. Outside of Bowling Green (42nd) the Wisconsin team hasn’t faced a top 50-ranked passing attack in the country.
While they did see Illinois (52nd) and Iowa (53rd) in Big Ten play, the reality is they didn’t face an extremely good passing offense all season long. Ironically, those three teams didn’t do anything against the Badgers, with Bowling Green going for just 112 yards, Illinois (minus Wes Lunt) going for 97 yards and Iowa threw for just 139 yards.
Ohio State would’ve had a major advantage in this category had Barrett been healthy, but the reality is Wisconsin’s defense (not just the secondary) is the secret behind the numbers. They do a great job of getting pressure on the quarterback, while the secondary is locking things down as well.
The Buckeyes may look to dink and dunk their way down the field instead of trying for the big shot down field, helping Cardale Jones in his first start.
His ability to connect in the passing game and ability to deal with the pressure UW will bring is going to be the $1 million question in this game. While OSU provides some very tough matchups on the outside, its question mark at QB is enough to give the edge to the Badgers.
Advantage: Wisconsin
OSU Rush Offense vs. Wisconsin Rush Defense:
OSU Rushing Stats: 3,089 yards, 30 touchdowns, 5.6 yards per carry, 257.4 yards per game
UW Rush D Stats: 1,245 yards, 13 touchdowns, 3.0 yards per carry, 103.8 yards per game
Big Ten Rankings:
OSU Rush Off: 3rd
Wis Rush D: 3rd
Welcome to the Ezekiel Elliot show, as without J.T. Barrett in the backfield it will be on him to be the bell cow in the backfield. The good news for OSU is that Elliot, a sophomore, gained over 1,100 yards on the season and averaged 6.0 yards per carry.
The question in this case is can Elliot do it when he doesn’t have a major rushing threat next to him at quarterback. Sure, Jones can run the football but he is a far cry from what Barrett brings to the table. Jones does have gaudy numbers, with 206 yards on 26 carries, but the vast majority came in blowout wins against vastly inferior competition.
Wisconsin will have its hands full at times, but they’ve risen to the occasion against the best the Big Ten has had to offer. Minnesota’s David Cobb had the 3rd lowest average in the Big Ten portion of the schedule against Wisconsin (4.72) and just 118 yards rushing, while UW held Nebraska’s Ameer Abdullah to just 69 yards (albeit he wasn’t 100 percent).
If the Badgers can keep Elliot under or around the 100-yard mark it will be just fine on the defensive side of the ball. Considering only a half of UW’s opponents have gone over 100 yards as a tea, it will be a challenge for the Buckeyes to do that.
Having said that, it is worrisome that Wisconsin has given up over 100 yards in each of the last three games. Consider that all the challenge this group needs to come up big.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Staff Predictions:
Andy (10-2 season record) – Wisconsin 28, Ohio State 24
While I see this game being closer than some fans think, I also see the Badgers defense as finally getting the respect they deserve as well. Ohio State has given up at least three touchdowns to each of the best running backs it has seen (Jermey Langford, David Cobb and Tevin Coleman), and Gordon is better than all three of those backs. So, give me three touchdowns for Gordon, while we also see Stave manage the game well and get a touchdown on play-action around the goal line. UW’s defense gets enough stops and a crucial turnover for the win.
Jay (8-1 season record) – Wisconsin 27, Ohio State 21
Can Wisconsin win it’s fourth B1G championship in the last five years? I think yes, and the Badgers will do it with the run attack. Ohio State has been known to give up yards to top-level rushers and Gordon is as top as they come. He’ll try to gash a more than likely box-stacked defense while Stave picks away when he can. The Badgers will take an early lead while Cardale Jones gets acclimated. I think he will though, as he will bring the Buckeyes back and they will take a small lead into halftime. It’s the second half, when Gordon and Clement will put the Badgers back on top. The defense holds strong while the Buckeyes give one last effort and the Badgers head to a top six bowl while the rest of us keep thinking what if…
Prognostications:
– Wisconsin has more sacks than Ohio State: The Buckeyes outdid the Badgers in sacks 37.0 to 35.0 on the regular season, but when you look at the two offensive lines, I like UW’s chances to get to the quarterback more than Ohio State. While Stave isn’t perfect in getting rid of the football, he is better at it now than earlier this season. He’ll know to take the play or throw the ball away, while Jones may be trying to make things happen too much and it will cost his team a sack or two it shouldn’t give up.
– Stave throws for over 200 yards: This may not be the most shocking prognostication of all time, but reality is, UW needs Stave to balance out the run game in a big way. How Stave gets to 200 is up for debate, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him connect on one or two deep play action passes and get a TD around the goal line the same way. Loo for Erickson and Arneson to be targets that have big days if UW gets to the 200-yard mark passing.
– Marcus Trotter stars on Defense: If ever there was a man made for a moment it would be Trotter in the Big Ten championship game. Speaking to him this week, it was very clear he was jacked up about the opportunity ahead of him and the team. He continually mentioned the fact that he (and Landisch) have been waiting four years for this chance, so expect him to be on top of his game even more than usual. It also means he goes from underrated in the Big Ten media circles to a star heading in to the bowl game.
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