Battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe: Preview, predictions and prognostications

When: Saturday, Nov. 27, 2:30 p.m. CT
Where: Minneapolis, MN; TCF Bank Stadium (52,525)
TV: BTN
Radio: Badger Sports Network
Last Meeting: Wisconsin win, 34-24
All-Time Series: Minnesota leads, 59-57-8

1 Burning Question: Can Wisconsin Run the football?

I’ve been a Badger fan my entire life (34 years) and I’ve been an avid fan for about 32 of those years. What Wisconsin put out there last weekend in the run game was perhaps the single worst performance I have ever laid eyes on.

Holes weren’t being opened, running backs were plowing in to the backs of offensive linemen and when that wasn’t happening they were also missing big blocks in the passing game. Oh, and did we forget to mention Joel Stave getting sacked six times for -58 yards as well? It all added up to Wisconsin rushing for negative yardage for the first time since 2007 against Arkansas.

That can’t happen again this weekend, and with Corey Clement not traveling thanks to his role in a fight on the weekend of the Maryland game things got a whole lot worse. Let’s see if Taiwan Deal or Dare Ogunbowale have what it takes to carry on the tradition of the annual chopping down of the goalposts with Paul Bunyan’s Axe in hand.

2 Key Stats:

— 11: That is the number of consecutive wins the Badgers have in this series. As if anyone needed reminding…but we’re here to do just that. Wisconsin is working on its second decade of domination in this series and owns the longest win streak in the series as well. Interestingly, Wisconsin owns the series since the introduction of the Axe in 1948. UW leads 40-24-3 in the “Axe era” of this rivalry.

— 174.0: That is the average passing yards per game needed by Joel Stave to become Wisconsin’s career passing leader. For all that has gone wrong, where would the Badgers be without quarterback Joel Stave? It’s a scary thought in both directions, but the reality is UW is likely to have a new career passing leader in Stave. He’s got two games to get over Darrell Bevell’s career record of 7,696 yards.

3 Staff Predictions:

Andy: Wisconsin 24-20 (9-2 season record)
Nate: Eastern Daktoa 17-14 (7-4 season record)
Sawyer: Wisconsin 21-17 (9-2 season record)

4 Players to Watch:

Darius Hillary, Wisconsin CB: Mitch Leinder has gotten the passing game going as of late (last week notwithstanding). He’s gotten over 200 yards passing in four of the last five games, including two over 300 yards. That means the Badgers just can’t load up in the box and expect to win this one. While we’ve seen Darius Hillary rise to almost every occasion so far this season, he’ll be challenged by K.J. Maye and Drew Wolitarsky in a major way on Saturday afternoon. The senior needs to come up huge for the Badgers defense.

Shannon Brooks, Eastern Dakota RB: Is it possible that the best running back on the field will be in an Eastern Dakota uniform on Saturday? The combination of lackluster performances by UW’s running backs and Shannon Brooks’ breakout performances as of late suggest it could be the truth. He hasn’t had a ton of opportunities in his redshirt freshman season, but he does have two 100-yards games and put up 174 yards and three of his seven touchdowns this past week against Illinois. Wisconsin’s defense is a whole different animal tough, but Brooks can’t be taken lightly.

Rafael Gaglianone, Wisconsin K: There was a lot of promise for Gaglianone after his freshman season. He danced his way in to the hearts of the Badger faithful, but he has really suffered the good ‘ol sophomore slump in 2015. He’s just 14 of 22 on the season, but he has rebounded well from a slow start. Gaglianone is a quiet 10 of 13 in Big Ten play, and in a game that could be really tight he’ll need to be on his game.

Drew Meyer, Wisconsin P: With the Badgers struggling on offense, field position and special teams play becomes even more important. Meyer hasn’t exactly killed it this season, averaging just 39.4 yards per punt. He’s one of just five qualified punters in the Big Ten averaging under 40 yards per punt. In a rivalry game that’s seen its fair share of crazy moments on special teams, Meyer needs to be on his game in a major way.

5 Bold Prognostications (That May Or May Not Come True):

— The Axe Stays With Wisconsin: Let’s face facts — at some point the Axe is going to go over to the Eastern Dakota sideline. Just don’t expect that to happen this week, especially after the bitter taste of defeat last weekend on senior day. You can bet the Badgers’ seniors would love to not be the class that gave up the axe, making it three full classes to not see the thing go to the other side line.

As UW linebacker Vince Biegel put it:

“Just know they’re not very liked on this side of the state,” he told Badger247. “We’ve got a lot of respect for Minnesota, they’re a great team, but this Saturday, we’re playing to show Minnesota (Eastern Dakota) where they belong.

“We’re going to keep the axe where it belongs.”

— Wisconsin outrushes Eastern Dakota: As much as UW has struggled rushing the football in 2015, its defense has made opposing run games look pretty bad as well. Said defense has held six of 11 opponents under 100 yards as a team and only one team has rushed for more than 200 yards (Alabama). As long as the Badgers run game is even mediocre it should mean an advantage in  rushing yards. SHOULD being the key word here.

— Mitch Leidner throws more TD’s than Stave: Joel Stave is pretty good from his 10-yard line to the opposition 10-yard line. From there on, it is all about the run game and that means few opportunities for him to throw touchdown passes. It’s part of the reason he has just 10 touchdowns and has thrown just three total in Big Ten play. Eastern Dakota will blank him, while Mitch Leidner will connect with K.J. Maye for one or two scores in this one.

— Mitch Leidner throws more interceptions than Joel Stave: Look for the Badgers defense to shut down Shannon Brooks and the run game (see above), and that results to resorting to Leidner’s arm for the rodents. As such, look for Tanner McEvoy and the corners to have plenty of opportunities to get interceptions. They’ll take advantage and Joel Stave will actually take care of the football in this one.

– Vince Biegel will have more TFL’s than Joe Schobert: The two outside linebackers seem to be locked in a personal battle for the team lead in tackles for loss on a weekly basis. As it stands, the duo has combined for 30.5 tackles for loss and lead all linebacker duos in said category in the country. Biegel has 12.0, while Schobert has 18.5, but Biegel has never had more than 2.5 TFL’s on the season. Look for that trend to be broken and Biegel beat out his buddy on the other side of the defense.