The Matchup: Wisconsin (9-9, 1-4) vs. No. 4 Michigan State (16-2, 3-2)
When: Sun. Jan. 17; 12:30p.m. CT
Where: Madison, WI; Kohl Center (17,287)
TV: CBS
Radio: Badgers Sports Network
Last Meeting: Wisconsin won, 80-69 (ot) Big Ten Tourn. Championship – Chicago, Ill. (3/15/15)
All-Time Series: MSU leads 75-63
Starting Lineups:
Michigan State Spartans
G Denzel Valentine — Sr. 6-5, 220 (17.6 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 6.7 apg)
G Tum Tum Narin Jr. — So. 5-10, 175 (4.1 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 4.5 apg)
G Bryn Forbes — Sr. 6-3, 190 (13.7 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.4 apg)
F Gavin Schilling — Jr. 6-9, 250 (5.9 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 0.1 apg)
F Matt Costello — Sr. 6-9, 245 (9.2 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.2 apg)
Wisconsin Badgers
G Bronson Koenig — Jr. 6-4, 193 (13.6 pgg, 2.7 rpg, 2.4 apg)
G Zak Showalter — Jr. 6-2, 180 (8.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.4 apg)
F Vitto Brown — Jr. 6-8, 230 (8.7 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 0.6 apg)
F Nigel Hayes — Jr. 6-8, 240 (15.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.8 apg)
F Ethan Happ — Fr. 6-9, 235 (11.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 0.9 apg)
Biggest Matchup: Ethan Happ vs. Matt Costello
Wisconsin has to find a way to counter what is likely going to be an interesting slashing game from the Spartans. Having Denzel Valentine back makes this team really dangerous on the defensive end of the court. It also is a great time to establish and start winning battles down low, and that means the battle between veteran Matt Costello and rookie Ethan Happ will be vital.
Happ has been consistent throughout the season, hovering around a double double on a game-by-game basis. If ever there is a time to lean on that kind of production, it is at home against a team like Michigan State.
With MSU loving the physical style of play, a player with the post moves of Happ can really get the opposition in trouble. Either he’s going to get easy baskets or he’s going to be getting to the line frequently. As long as Happ can handle the pressure, look for him to be a focal point of the Badgers’ offense in this matchup.
3 Numbers to Know:
— 16-12: That is Wisconsin’s record against Michigan State since 2002. It also happens to be the best record of any team in the Big Ten against the Spartans and the only winning record amongst the rest of the conference. It seems that no matter the circumstances, these two teams play some barn burners.
— 10-2: That is Wisconsin’s home record against MSU since 2002. Since we’re talking about records since 2002, it is vitally important to understand just how much the Badgers have owned Izzo’s teams at the Kohl Center. Holding serve here against a ranked opponent like Sparty would be a huge boost to the NCAA tournament hopes that seem to be fading.
— 10: That is the number of opponents Wisconsin has held to under 1.0 points per possession in the last 11 games. One reason for continued optimism is that Wisconsin’s defense has become better as the season has progressed. That is born out in the fact that UW has been really difficult to score on, with only Northwestern averaging better than 1.0 points per possession in that time frame.
Prediction: Michigan State 78, Wisconsin 72
This game honestly should scare the crap out of the Wisconsin Badgers. Michigan State is coming off an embarrassing loss to Iowa in the last contest, and that means one ticked off Tom Izzo-coached team. It usually doesn’t end well for the opposition.
Additionally, this will be star guard Denzel Valentine’s second game back from injury and that doesn’t bode well for the Badgers either. Wisconsin has repeatedly struggled to deny star players from going off against them, and until UW’s players prove they can do it on the court we’re not buying it happening anytime soon.
The one thing going for Wisconsin is the clear message sent by Nigel Hayes following the loss to Northwestern. Simply put, it’s do or die for the Badgers’ NCAA tournament hopes right now. Wisconsin desperately needs this win, but it has needed that the last few games and found new ways of losing. Don’t be surprised to see it happen again on Sunday afternoon.
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