The Pittsburgh Pirates and The Battle of Art Versus Science

The Pittsburgh Pirates entered the 2016 Winter Meetings seemingly destined to trade Andrew McCutchen. What actually happened was another chapter in their battle between art and science.

As the Hot Stove season reached fever pitch over the past few days, I found myself thinking about art vs. science.

One is free-flowing, carefree. Almost intangible.

Another is hard. Factual. Concrete.

With two such diametrically-opposed concepts, it is surprising that the Pittsburgh Pirates often find themselves vacillating in the middle when it comes to how they pursue trades, prospect call ups and more personnel decisions. By doing so, their end result is often far from desired.

The Art of a Trade versus the Science

We can start with an example that just happens to be the freshest.

After nearly two weeks of steady buildup towards a trade, the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Washington Nationals simply could not make a trade involving Andrew McCutchen materialize. Their reported insistence – at least early on in the talks –  on including prized Washington prospect Victor Robles drove the Nationals towards other avenues, and they eventually hotly pursued White Sox starting pitcher and amateur tailor Chris Sale and..well, you know the rest.

Here we see that the Pirates clung too tightly to the art of crafting what they believed was the perfect asking price for McCutchen. Later, we would find out via Jon Heyman that the Pirates never insisted on Robles during the second round of negotiations after the Nationals lost out on Sale, but they did begin asking for Lucas Giolito. Though we will never fully know what offers was exchanged in the room, it is easy to read the tea leaves and see that the Pittsburgh Pirates thought they had leverage and could finesse their way into getting the number one pitching prospect in baseball.

As you undoubtedly know, they didn’t. For an organization that prides itself on analytical thinking, the fact that another team would have a ready made centerfold option – much less one the club was already negotiating with – did not sway them enough to take a step back and look past McCutchen’s name value. They were left with egg on their face as a result.

The Science of Super Two

One of the biggest examples of art vs. science for any team is the Super Two rule as it pertains to finding exactly the right time to call up a prized prospect.

The Pittsburgh Pirates were beholden to science in 2014, waiting until a Neil Walker appendectomy to bring up Gregory Polanco, who was tearing up Triple-A pitching at the time. The Polanco call up was one of the most widely debated decisions in recent Pirates history, and many debate it to this day. Regardless of whether or not Polanco was truly ready, the Pirates were preaching that he needed more time in Triple-A, and would not have come up unless a roster need arose.

If you subscribe to that thinking, you could also make the argument that the club was primarily concerned with Super Two above all else. Polanco’s prolonged slump was a strong indication that perhaps he wasn’t ready after all, and the team cared more about the science of the deadline.

The Art Of The Deal

Please pardon the obvious reference, but the Pittsburgh Pirates also feel the tug of war in extending their in-house players. Though this particular area sees them finding the right side more often than not, they still have their missteps.

[perfectpullquote align=”right” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]One of the biggest examples of art vs. science for any team is the Super Two rule as it pertains to finding exactly the right time to call up a prized prospect.[/perfectpullquote]

But first, the victories were they successfully managed the art with the science. The extensions for Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco all seem like winning transactions, even if it is rather early, as in Polanco’s case, or if other factors – such as the return from a potential McCutchen trade – have yet to weigh in on the final tally.

Did the art of the McCutchen victory in this regard cloud the science that was readily apparent in their later misses? To be fair, Jose Tabata‘s extension – signed in the middle of a 2011 season that saw him post a 0.4 WAR – could be labelled as the first miss. But, empowered by the universally lauded return from the McCutchen deal, the Pittsburgh Pirates saw it fit to give an extension to Josh Harrison after his breakout 2014 season. Seemingly falling back on their artful track record, the club rewarded Harrison’s breakout 2014 with a pricey extension before he had a chance to embark on a followup season. Many believe – as this author does – that the money owed to Harrison over the next two years leaves an already financially tight team with even less wiggle room.

If they had paid more attention to the hard facts of a player who was coming off of the very definition of a career year, they may have given themselves pause before committing so much to a second baseman who, while stout defensively, has given diminishing returns in the two years since.

There is another extension we could mention as we highlight the team’s continuing tug of war, and that would be Francisco Cervelli. Here, again, we see the team clinging to the art of their previous victories and perhaps ignoring the sheer number of games lost to injury in Cervelli’s career.

Regardless of these examples, the Pittsburgh Pirates must begin winning these battles of art vs. science to keep their competitive window open for as long as possible.