Before each season I do a preview for all the Angels players and include in those previews all the various statistical projections for each player as well as a projection of my own. But now that the season is done, I thought it would be fun to take a look back at how accurate all those projection systems were. SPOILER ALERT: Not accurate at all.
Turns out this whole projection thing is really hard.
A real quick note before we get started. Projections were only done for players likely to make the Opening Day roster and all rookies were excluded since projections are generally unavailable, thus the lack of Walden and Trumbo.
Bobby Abreu
2011 ZiPS Projections: 528 AB, .263 AVG, .349 OBP, .428 SLG, 79 R, 17 HR, 79 RBI, 21 SB
2011 Bill James Projections: 600 AB, .268 AVG, .372 OBP, .425 SLG, 96 R, 18 HR, 94 RBI, 23 SB
2011 Marcel Projections: 522 AB, .266 AVG, .353 OBP, .420 SLG, 78 R, 15 HR, 76 RBI, 21 SB
2011 MWaH Projections: 495 AB, .272 AVG, .361 OBP, .421 SLG, 82 R, 14 HR, 73 RBI, 14 SB
2011 Actual: 502 AB, .253, .353 OBP, .365 SLG, 54 R, 8 HR, 60 RBI, 21 SB
So, yeah, Abreu is a lot more washed up than anyone expected.
Erick Aybar
2011 ZiPS Projections: 492 AB, .270 AVG, .318 OBP, .366 SLG, 67 R, 5 HR, 43 RBI, 17 SB
2011 Bill James Projections: 508 AB, .274 AVG, .320 OBP, .366 SLG, 71 R, 5 HR, 45 RBI, 19 SB
2011 Marcel Projections: 499 AB, .277 AVG, .326 OBP, .379 SLG, 67 R, 6 HR, 46 RBI, 16 SB
2011 MWaH Projections: 515 AB, .268 AVG, .316 OBP, .365 SLG, 62 R, 6 HR, 53 RBI, 25 SB
2011 Actual: 556 AB, .279, .322 OBP, .421 SLG, 71 R, 10 HR, 59 RBI, 30 SB
Wow, Bill James almost nailed it. But like everyone else, nobody anticipated his uptick in power.
Peter Bourjos
2011 ZiPS Projections: 606 AB, .259 AVG, .300 OBP, .401 SLG, 89 R, 13 HR, 55 RBI, 35 SB
2011 Bill James Projections: 375 AB, .261 AVG, .304 OBP, .397 SLG, 55 R, 9 HR, 37 RBI, 27 SB
2011 Marcel Projections: 269 AB, .242 AVG, .297 OBP, .416 SLG, 33 R, 9 HR, 29 RBI, 10 SB
2011 MWaH Projections: 445 AB, .241 AVG, .294 OBP, .388 SLG, 62 R, 8 HR, 46 RBI, 31 SB
2011 Actual: 502 AB, .271 AVG, .327 OBP, .438 SLG, 72 R, 12 HR, 43 RBI, 22 SB
ZiPS was closest on Bourjos but it seems pretty clear that few expected him to perform this well offensively. To be fair, the purely statistical models didn’t have much of a sample to work with.
Alberto Callaspo
2011 ZiPS Projections: 500 AB, .274 AVG, .319 OBP, .396 SLG, 62 R, 9 HR, 53 RBI, 3 SB
2011 Bill James Projections: 455 AB, .281 AVG, .333 OBP, .396 SLG, 56 R, 7 HR, 47 RBI, 4 SB
2011 Marcel Projections: 518 AB, .280 AVG, .329 OBP, .403 SLG, 62 R, 9 HR, 56 RBI, 5 SB
2011 MWaH Projections: 365 AB, .285 AVG, .333 OBP, .419 SLG, 33 R, 7 HR, 37 RBI, 3 SB
2011 Actual: 475 AB, .288 AVG, .366 OBP, .375 SLG, 54 R, 6 HR, 46 RBI, 8 SB
Bill James was incredibly close, but nobody foresaw Berto suddenly developing patience at the plate. I definitely didn’t see him getting as much playing time as he ended up receiving, which probably speaks to how thin the Angel lineup was.
Scott Downs
2011 ZiPS Projections: 55.1 IP, 4-2, n/a SV, 3.42 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 46 K
2011 Bill James Projections: 58 IP, 4-3, 0 SV, 3.26 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 47 K
2011 Marcel Projections: 60 IP, 3-4, 3 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 47 K
2011 MWaH Projections: 68 IP, 4-4, 10 SV, 3.15 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 52 K
2011 Actual: 53.2 IP, 6-3, 1 SV, 1.34 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 35 K
Nobody was ever going to predict this kind of season for Downs. My big miss was him picking up 10 saves, a prediction I stand by. I am convinced Downs would’ve been named closer when Rodney lost the job, but Downs just wasn’t healthy, so it never worked out. I consider this a moral victory.
Dan Haren
2011 ZiPS Projections: 224.1 IP, 15-9, 3.57 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 213 K
2011 Bill James Projections: 238 IP, 15-12, 3.52 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 216 K
2011 Marcel Projections: 200 IP, 12-10, 3.76 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 209 K
2011 MWaH Projections: 225 IP, 15-10, 3.40 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 190 K
2011 Actual: 238.1 IP, 16-10, 3.17 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 192 K
Oh, I was sooo close! Please excuse me while I go pat myself on the back for being one of the few folks that believes Haren is a bona fide ace.
Torii Hunter
2011 ZiPS Projections: 506 AB, .273 AVG, .340 OBP, .460 SLG, 72 R, 21 HR, 81 RBI, 13 SB
2011 Bill James Projections: 569 AB, .272 AVG, .340 OBP, .457 SLG, 81 R, 23 HR, 92 RBI, 11 SB
2011 Marcel Projections: 515 AB, .272 AVG, .340 OBP, .450 SLG, 81 R, 22 HR, 98 RBI, 11 SB
2011 MWaH Projections: 550 AB, .278 AVG, .350 OBP, .460 SLG, 90 R, 25 HR, 101 RBI, 7 SB
2011 Actual: 580 AB, .262 AVG, .336 OBP, .429 SLG, 80 R, 23 HR, 82 RBI, 5 SB
OK, I admit, I was engaging in some real wishful thinking with Hunter.
Maicer Izturis
2011 ZiPS Projections: 308 AB, .273 AVG, .333 OBP, .386 SLG, 45 R, 5 HR, 43 RBI, 9 SB
2011 Bill James Projections: 352 AB, .278 AVG, .347 OBP, .394 SLG, 49 R, 5 HR, 39 RBI, 10 SB
2011 Marcel Projections: 363 AB, .269 AVG, .332 OBP, .389 SLG, 49 R, 6 HR, 44 RBI, 10 SB
2011 MWaH Projections: 350 AB, .284 AVG, .358 OBP, .390 SLG, 52 R, 5 HR, 35 RBI, 12 SB
2011 Actual: 449 AB, .276 AVG, .334 OBP, .388 SLG, 51 R, 5 HR, 38 RBI, 9 SB
Aside from the at-bats, ZiPS was eerily close to getting Izturis spot on and I don’t think we can blame anyone for not predicting 449 ABs for Mr. Glass.
Kevin Jepsen
2011 ZiPS Projections: 65.1 IP, 4-4, n/a SV, 4.27 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 62 K
2011 Bill James Projections: 64 IP, 3-4, 0 SV, 3.94 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 62 K
2011 Marcel Projections: 60 IP, 4-4, 0 SV, 4.12 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 53 K
2011 MWaH Projections: 62 IP, 3-3, 2 SV, 3.65 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 60 K
2011 Actual: 13 IP, 1-2, 0 SV, 7.62 ERA, 2.31 WHIP, 6 K
I’m embarrassed. Let’s just move on.
Scott Kazmir
2011 ZiPS Projections: 154.1 IP, 9-12, 5.07 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 123 K
2011 Bill James Projections: 162 IP, 8-10, 4.22 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 151 K
2011 Marcel Projections: 150 IP, 10-11, 4.62 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 115 K
2011 MWaH Projections: 34 IP, 1-5, 6.20 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 18 K
2011 Actual: 1.2 IP, 0-0, 27.00 ERA, 4.20 WHIP, 0 K
The funny thing is, I thought I was being bold by saying that Kazmir would “only” last 34 innings.
Howie Kendrick
2011 ZiPS Projections: 544 AB, .279 AVG, .315 OBP, .415 SLG, 67 R, 11 HR, 68 RBI, 15 SB
2011 Bill James Projections: 543 AB, .295 AVG, .329 OBP, .435 SLG, 71 R, 10 HR, 73 RBI, 13 SB
2011 Marcel Projections: 529 AB, .284 AVG, .323 OBP, .414 SLG, 67 R, 10 HR, 68 RBI, 13 SB
2011 MWaH Projections: 535 AB, .303 AVG, .330 OBP, .442 SLG, 68 R, 14 HR, 80 RBI, 17 SB
2011 Actual: 537 AB, .285 AVG, .338 OBP, .464 SLG, 86 R, 18 HR, 63 RBI, 14 SB
I did my best to predict a breakout season for Howie, but even then I still came up short.
Jeff Mathis
2011 ZiPS Projections: 274 AB, .212 AVG, .270 OBP, .332 SLG, 32 R, 7 HR, 33 RBI, 3 SB
2011 Bill James Projections: 146 AB, .212 AVG, .277 OBP, .322 SLG, 17 R, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 1 SB
2011 Marcel Projections: 336 AB, ..217 AVG, .279 OBP, .330 SLG, 34 R, 5 HR, 35 RBI, 4 SB
2011 MWaH Projections: 385 AB, .225 AVG, .280 OBP, .350 SLG, 36 R, 11 HR, 40 RBI, 2 SB
2011 Actual: 247 AB, .174 AVG, .225 OBP, .259 SLG, 18 R, 3 HR, 22 RBI, 1 SB
In my defense, I even said at the time that I was going out of my way to be positive on Mathis. What amazes me though is that I projected a .630 OPS and missed by a mile.
Joel Pineiro
2011 ZiPS Projections: 146 IP, 8-8, 4.44 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 84 K
2011 Bill James Projections: 193 IP, 10-11, 4.06 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 110 K
2011 Marcel Projections: 157 IP, 10-8, 3.93 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 91 K
2011 MWaH Projections: 135 IP, 6-8, 3.72 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 72 K
2011 Actual: 145.2 IP, 7-7, 5.13 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 62 K
ZiPS is smart once again. Me, I am an idiot because I contradicted myself. I dropped his innings pitched down because he was having arm problems in spring training but failed to realize that he might pitch poorly as well.
Fernando Rodney
2011 ZiPS Projections: 59.2 IP, 3-3, n/a SV, 4.53 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 52 K
2011 Bill James Projections: 74 IP, 4-4, 19 SV, 4.14 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 67 K
2011 Marcel Projections: 67 IP, 3-4, 16 SV, 4.23 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 53 K
2011 MWaH Projections: 66 IP, 2-5, 22 SV, 4.40 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 56 K
2011 Actual: 32 IP, 3-5, 3 SV, 4.50 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 26 K
I was right about him losing the closer’s gig, just not about the timing. Otherwise I was pretty close, same goes for ZiPS who was even closer than me, which is annoying. Stupid computers.
Ervin Santana
2011 ZiPS Projections: 195.2 IP, 12-10, 4.23 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 164 K
2011 Bill James Projections: 211 IP, 11-13, 4.14 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 169 K
2011 Marcel Projections: 185 IP, 13-9, 4.09 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 148 K
2011 MWaH Projections: 205 IP, 15-12, 4.35 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 158 K
2011 Actual: 228.2 IP, 11-12, 3.38 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 178 K
Oh god dammit. I back Santana for years and finally have a momentarily lapse in faith only to see him go out and have a great season. Damn you, Ervin!
Hisanori Takahashi
2011 ZiPS Projections: 106 IP, 8-6, n/a SV, 4.16 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 95 K
2011 Bill James Projections: not available
2011 Marcel Projections: 94 IP, 7-5, 4 SV, 3.93 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 82 K
2011 MWaH Projections: 87 IP, 7-3, 0 SV, 4.05 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 75 K
2011 Actual: 68 IP, 4-3, 2 SV, 3.44 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 52 K
I didn’t remember being so down on Taka. I regret nothing.
Jered Weaver
2011 ZiPS Projections: 201.1 IP, 15-8, 3.53 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 195 K
2011 Bill James Projections: 222 IP, 14-11, 3.45 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 199 K
2011 Marcel Projections: 193 IP, 12-10, 3.50 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 176 K
2011 MWaH Projections: 215 IP, 16-9, 3.38 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 192 K
2011 Actual: 235.2 IP, 18-8, 2.41 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 198 K
Everyone loved Weaver, but not enough apparently.
Vernon Wells
2011 ZiPS Projections: 565 AB, .260 AVG, .313 OBP, .432 SLG, 70 R, 19 HR, 74 RBI, 9 SB
2011 Bill James Projections: 587 AB, .283 AVG, .338 OBP, .480 SLG, 85 R, 25 HR, 89 RBI, 7 SB
2011 Marcel Projections: 542 AB, .266 AVG, .320 OBP, .445 SLG, 71 R, 20 HR, 71 RBI, 9 SB
2011 MWaH Projections: 550 AB, .272 AVG, .327 OBP, .487 SLG, 81 R, 27 HR, 95 RBI, 13 SB
2011 Actual: 505 AB, .218 AVG, .248 OBP, .412 SLG, 60 R, 25 HR, 66 RBI, 9 SB
Well, this is depressing. Why did I do this exercise again?
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