Before the season, we fans all obsess over the various projections models that attempt to tell us how our teams and players are expected to perform. As Angel fans know quite well, these projections are far from perfect as the Halos have made a habit of soundly beating the projections or getting savagely beaten by them.
Now that the season is over, it seems prudent to look back at those projections, including my own personal projections from my annual player profile series, to see just how right or wrong (mostly wrong) we all were. Today, we look at the Angels' hitters, with the pitchers on deck for tomorrow.
2012 Stats: 554 PA, .290 AVG, .324 OBP, .416 SLG, 67 R, 8 HR, 45 RBI, 20 SB, 4 CS, 61 K, .321 wOBA, 109 OPS+, 3.4 fWAR
2013 ZiPS Projections: 601 PA, .276 AVG, .317 OBP, .393 SLG, 72 R, 8 HR, 48 RBI, 23 SB, 6 CS, 69 K, .309 wOBA, 99 OPS+, 2.7 fWAR
2013 Bill James Projections: 553 PA, .278 AVG, .321 OBP, .389 SLG, 69 R, 7 HR, 48 RBI, 20 SB, 7 CS, 65 K, .307 wOBA
2013 CAIRO Projections: 488 PA, .274 AVG, .315 OBP, .392 SLG, 55 R, 7 HR, 44 RBI, 17 SB, 5 CS, 62 K, .309 wOBA
2013 MWAH Projections: 650 PA, .285 AVG, .318 OBP, .406 SLG, 88 R, 9 HR, 64 RBI, 28 SB, 6 CS, 80 K, .322 wOBA
2013 Actual: 589 PA, .271 AVG, .301 OBP, .382 SLG, 68 R, 6 HR, 54 RBI, 12 SB, 7 CS, 59 K, .299 wOBA, 93 OPS+, 1.6 fWAR
Clearly, it was a down season for Aybar, but nobody saw it being this bad. Nobody was egregiously far off on his average and power production, but what stands out is how far off the systems all were in terms of his OBP and base stealing. The leg injuries could explain his lack of stolen base attempts and success, but his decline in plate discipline is very unusual, especially when you consider that he is right in the prime age range for walk rates. That probably won't stop Scioscia from trying to have him bat leadoff next season though. Yay.
2012 Stats: 195 PA, .220 AVG, .291 OBP, .315 SLG, 27 R, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 3 SB, 1 CS, 44 K, .272 wOBA, 73 OPS+, 1.9 fWAR
2013 ZiPS Projections: 471 PA, .248 AVG, .302 OBP, .396 SLG, 63 R, 10 HR, 47 RBI, 18 SB, 6 CS, 102 K, .302 wOBA, 2.8 fWAR
2013 Bill James Projections: 613 PA, .262 AVG, .316 OBP, .411 SLG, 88 R, 13 HR, 57 RBI, 24 SB, 9 CS, 124 K, .315 wOBA
2013 CAIRO Projections: 453 PA, .255 AVG, .308 OBP, .401 SLG, 58 R, 10 HR, 43 RBI, 16 SB, 6 CS, 95 K, .309 wOBA
2013 MWAH Projections: 530 PA, .253 AVG, .308 OBP, .394 SLG, 58 R, 11 HR, 52 RBI, 31 SB,9 CS, 114 K, .313 wOBA
2013 Actual: 196 PA, .274 AVG, .333 OBP, .377 SLG, 26 R, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 6 SB, 0 CS, 43 K, .317 wOBA, 102 OPS+, 1.1 fWAR
Give Bill James credit for believing in Bourjos more than everyone else, but we all lose points for overestimating his power potential. Though, to be fair, 196 plate appearances is hardly a sufficient sample especially with a few dozen of those at-bats coming after he hurt his wrist. Really his whole comparison isn't worthwhile because of the injury issues.
2012 Stats: 520 PA, .252 AVG, .331 OBP, .361 SLG, 55 R, 10 HR, 53 RBI, 4 SB, 3 CS, 59 K, .308 wOBA, 98 OPS+, 2.7 fWAR
2013 ZiPS Projections: 553 PA, .265 AVG, .330 OBP, .376 SLG, 58 R, 10 HR, 55 RBI, 5 SB, 2 CS, 49 K, .307 wOBA, 99 OPS+, 2.7 fWAR
2013 Bill James Projections: 496 PA, .265 AVG, .337 OBP, .386 SLG, 54 R, 8 HR, 48 RBI, 4 SB, 3 CS, 49 K, .319 wOBA
2013 CAIRO Projections: 565 PA, .259 AVG, .325 OBP, .365 SLG, 58 R, 9 HR, 58 RBI, 5 SB, 2 CS, 59 K, .309 wOBA
2013 MWAH Projections: 565 PA, .268 AVG, .343 OBP, .373 SLG, 65 R, 7 HR, 57 RBI, 2 SB,2 CS, 52 K, .319 wOBA
2013 Actual: 516 PA, .258 AVG, .333 OBP, .369 SLG, 52 R, 10 HR, 58 RBI, 0 SB, 2 CS, 47 K, .312 wOBA, 100 OPS+, 0.6 fWAR
We're all winners! Callaspo is a pretty consistent performer, so it is no surprise that we were all grouped so closely and all so close to predicting his real 2013 numbers, though it should be noted that none of the projections accounted for him playing the final two months of the season with Oakland as his home park, which I suspect would've lowered his projections a bit.
2012 Stats: 636 PA, .285 AVG, .354 OBP, .577 SLG, 103 R, 43 HR, 128 RBI, 7 SB, 4 CS, 162 K, .387 wOBA, 139 OPS+, 4.4 fWAR
2013 ZiPS Projections: 584 PA, .267 AVG, .333 OBP, .481 SLG, 73 R, 26 HR, 86 RBI, 7 SB, 2 CS, 130 K, .341 wOBA, 126 OPS+, 3.2 fWAR
2013 Bill James Projections: 630 PA, .289 AVG, .356 OBP, .540 SLG, 96 R, 35 HR, 114 RBI, 7 SB, 3 CS, 144 K, .376 wOBA
2013 CAIRO Projections: 522 PA, .270 AVG, .327 OBP, .469 SLG, 87 R, 21 HR, 83 RBI, 7 SB, 2 CS, 110 K, .341 wOBA
2013 MWAH Projections: 550 PA, .281 AVG, .338 OBP, .492 SLG, 84 R, 26 HR, 94 RBI, 8 SB, 3 CS, 125 K, .360 wOBA
2013 Actual: 636 PA, .250 AVG, .307 OBP, .432 SLG, 73 R, 21 HR, 79 RBI, 4 SB, 0 CS, 158 K, .319 wOBA, 108 OPS+, 1.9 fWAR
None of the systems expected Hamilton to be putting up MVP-caliber numbers. High fives all around! What none of them saw was just how badly Hamilton would crater. CAIRO seemed to be the most prescient in that it most closely foresaw his power shriveling. Even still, it was off by nearly 20 ISO points, which is pretty significant. It just goes to show what a shocking disappointment Hamilton was. I'll be very curious to see how much his projections drop by next season.
2012 Stats: 253 PA, .240 AVG, .332 OBP, .398 SLG, 27 R, 9 HR, 26 RBI, 1 SB, 3 CS, 60 K, .323 wOBA, 107 OPS+, 1.3 fWAR
2013 ZiPS Projections: 333 PA, .224 AVG, .334 OBP, .384 SLG, 33 R, 11 HR, 37 RBI, 2 SB, 2 CS, 80 K, .314 wOBA, 103 OPS+, 1.8 fWAR
2013 Bill James Projections: 430 PA, .240 AVG, .352 OBP, .426 SLG, 49 R, 16 HR, 55 RBI, 2 SB, 2 CS, 99 K, .339 wOBA
2013 CAIRO Projections: 363 PA, .218 AVG, .320 OBP, .365 SLG, 45 R, 10 HR, 41 RBI, 3 SB, 2 CS, 78 K, .308 wOBA
2013 MWAH Projections: 425 PA, .253 AVG, .336 OBP, .413 SLG, 44 R, 12 HR, 48 RBI, 2 SB, 2 CS, 95 K, .331 wOBA
2013 Actual: 399 PA, .225 AVG, .358 OBP, .372 SLG, 40 R, 11 HR, 39 RBI, 0 SB, 1 CS, 100 K, .330 wOBA, 109 OPS+, 1.2 fWAR
ZiPS and CAIRO were both able to predict Iannetta's troubles hitting for average and waning power, but ZiPS was also able to predict much of the spike in Iannetta's preposterous strikeout rate. His absurdly good 17% walk rate definitely wasn't predicted though, which is probably a good thing because predicting that kind of walk rate seems borderline reckless. Almost as reckless as me thinking he could hit .253. I really don't know what I was thinking.
2012 Stats: 594 PA, .287 AVG, .325 OBP, .400 SLG, 57 R, 8 HR, 67 RBI, 14 SB, 6 CS, 115 K, .316 wOBA, 106 OPS+, 2.8 fWAR
2013 ZiPS Projections: 614 PA, .272 AVG, .314 OBP, .405 SLG, 68 R, 12 HR, 70 RBI, 14 SB, 6 CS, 109 K, .309 wOBA, 102 OPS+, 3.0 fWAR
2013 Bill James Projections: 619 PA, .287 AVG, .327 OBP, .424 SLG, 73 R, 12 HR, 73 RBI, 14 SB, 7 CS, 119 K, .324 wOBA
2013 CAIRO Projections: 598 PA, .275 AVG, .318 OBP, .410 SLG, 65 R, 12 HR, 73 RBI, 12 SB, 5 CS, 110 K, .318 wOBA
2013 MWAH Projections: 581 PA, .293 AVG, .326 OBP, .423 SLG, 72 R, 12 HR, 72 RBI, 17 SB, 7 CS, 118 K, .328 wOBA
2013 Actual: 513 PA, .297 AVG, .335 OBP, .439 SLG, 55 R, 13 HR, 54 RBI, 6 SB, 3 CS, 89 K, .336 wOBA, 118 OPS+, 2.7 fWAR
Not to brag, but I pretty much nailed it. Some of the systems actually seemed to be rather down on Howie, but he really stepped his game up both in terms of his on-base skill and hitting with more consistent power. He is still hardly a beast in either area, but he well out-performed expectations.
2012 Stats: 670 PA, .285 AVG, .343 OBP, .516 SLG, 85 R, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 8 SB, 1 CS, 76 K, .360 wOBA, 141 OPS+, 3.9 fWAR
2013 ZiPS Projections: 638 PA, .285 AVG, .359 OBP, .516 SLG, 88 R, 31 HR, 94 RBI, 10 SB, 2 CS, 72 K, .354 wOBA, 133 OPS+, 5.3 fWAR
2013 Bill James Projections: 690 PA, .305 AVG, .394 OBP, .564 SLG, 105 R, 38 HR, 117 RBI, 9 SB, 4 CS, 73 K, .398 wOBA
2013 CAIRO Projections: 672 PA, .284 AVG, .359 OBP, .517 SLG, 95 R, 33 HR, 111 RBI, 10 SB, 2 CS, 76 K, .374 wOBA
2013 MWAH Projections: 685 PA, .300 AVG, .361 OBP, .533 SLG, 95 R, 33 HR, 121 RBI, 7 SB, 4 CS, 83 K, .385 wOBA
2013 Actual: 443 PA, .258 AVG, .330 OBP, .437 SLG, 49 R, 17 HR, 64 RBI, 1 SB, 1 CS, 55 K, .329 wOBA, 116 OPS+, 0.7 fWAR
So, it turns out that there is no "anticipate horrible foot and knee problems" setting in any of these projection models. I mean, wow, we were all way, way off. Bill James should be ashamed of himself.
2012 Stats: 21 PA, .412 AVG, .500 OBP, .412 SLG, 2 R, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 SB, 0 CS, 32 K, .413 wOBA, 165 OPS+, 0.2 fWAR
2013 ZiPS Projections: 494 PA, .232 AVG, .288 OBP, .295 SLG, 48 R, 3 HR, 31 RBI, 17 SB, 8 CS, 95 K, .260 wOBA, 65 OPS+, -0.1 fWAR
2013 Bill James Projections: not available because, really, who cares about Andrew Romine?
2013 CAIRO Projections: 485 PA, .231 AVG, .292 OBP, .294 SLG, 57 R, 4 HR, 34 RBI, 19 SB, 10 CS, 91 K, .267 wOBA
2013 MWAH Projections: 200 PA, .210 AVG, .290 OBP, .290 SLG, 20 R, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 8 SB, 3 CS, 29 K, .267 wOBA
2013 Actual: 123 PA, .259 AVG, .311 OBP, .278 SLG, 9 R, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 1 SB, 0 CS, 24 K, .270 wOBA, 71 OPS+, 0.4 fWAR
I was shocked to learn that I even bothered doing a projection piece on Romine. I failed pretty hard on that front just in assuming he would win a bench job out of training camp. Then again, given how poorly Brendan Harris played, I'd say Scioscia and Dipoto failed pretty hard on that decision as well. Let's all just pretend this never happened.
2012 Stats: 639 PA, .326 AVG, .399 OBP, .564 SLG, 129 R, 30 HR, 83 RBI, 49 SB, 5 CS, 139 K, .409 wOBA, 170 OPS+, 10.0 fWAR
2013 ZiPS Projections: 695 PA, .282 AVG, .364 OBP, .507 SLG, 122 R, 29 HR, 83 RBI, 47 SB, 8 CS, 149 K, .371 wOBA, 142 OPS+, 7.4 fWAR
2013 Bill James Projections: 679 PA, .325 AVG, .402 OBP, .564 SLG, 122 R, 30 HR, 87 RBI, 53 SB, 9 CS, 135 K, .410 wOBA
2013 CAIRO Projections: 654 PA, .300 AVG, .383 OBP, .498 SLG, 104 R, 25 HR, 77 RBI, 46 SB, 10 CS, 134 K, .385 wOBA
2013 MWAH Projections: 720 PA, .319 AVG, .393 OBP, .541 SLG, 138 R, 27 HR, 92 RBI, 60 SB, 8 CS, 125 K, .408 wOBA
2013 Actual: 716 PA, .323 AVG, .432 OBP, .557 SLG, 115 R, 26 HR, 79 RBI, 33 SB, 7 CS, 136 K, .423 wOBA, 179 OPS+, 10.4 fWAR
ZiPS whiffed hard on its regression-heavy projection for Trout, while Bill James totally redeemed himself for the Pujols mess. What's even more amazing though is that Trout was even able to outplay all of these projections. Personally, I thought I was being quite bold in making such a rosy projection at the time and it turns out I still ended up looking conservative. Again, we all sucked at projecting the stolen base totals which really makes me wonder what was going on with Scioscia and the running game in 2013.
2012 Stats: 586 PA, .268 AVG, .317 OBP, .491 SLG, 66 R, 32 HR, 95 RBI, 4 SB, 5 CS, 153 K, .346 wOBA, 126 OPS+, 2.4 fWAR
2013 ZiPS Projections: 596 PA, .263 AVG, .310 OBP, .481 SLG, 67 R, 31 HR, 94 RBI, 6 SB, 5 CS, 144 K, .337 wOBA, 119 OPS+, 1.8 fWAR
2013 Bill James Projections: 584 PA, .266 AVG, .315 OBP, .495 SLG, 71 R, 31 HR, 98 RBI, 5 SB, 3 CS, 130 K, .344 wOBA
2013 CAIRO Projections: 586 PA, .258 AVG, .312 OBP, .467 SLG, 66 R, 28 HR, 95 RBI, 6 SB, 4 CS, 135 K, .335 wOBA
2013 MWAH Projections: 580 PA, .262 AVG, .314 OBP, .484 SLG, 70 R, 31 HR, 84 RBI, 5 SB, 3 CS, 140 K, .345 wOBA
2013 Actual: 678 PA, .234 AVG, .294 OBP, .453 SLG, 85 R, 34 HR, 100 RBI, 5 SB, 2 CS, 184 K, .322 wOBA, 109 OPS+, 2.5 fWAR
Well, yuck. Ironically, Trumbo was able to draw walks at a higher rate than any system anticipated, but his ability to hit for average and keep his strikeout rate at a sub-Mark Reynolds level was wildly overestimated.
2012 Stats: 262 PA, .230 AVG, .279 OBP, .403 SLG, 36 R, 11 HR, 29 RBI, 3 SB, 1 CS, 35 K, .296 wOBA, 91 OPS+, 0.6 fWAR
2013 ZiPS Projections: 449 PA, .248AVG, .290 OBP, .426 SLG, 53 R, 17 HR, 52 RBI, 7 SB, 3 CS, 67 K, .308 wOBA, 99 OPS+, 1.3 fWAR
2013 Bill James Projections: 284 PA, .244 AVG, .297 OBP, .429 SLG, 33 R, 11 HR, 36 RBI, 4 SB, 2 CS, 42 K, .312 wOBA
2013 CAIRO Projections: 430 PA, .231 AVG, .278 OBP, .403 SLG, 51 R, 16 HR, 53 RBI, 6 SB, 3 CS, 66 K, .294 wOBA
2013 MWAH Projections: 175 PA, .245 AVG, .286 OBP, .411 SLG, 19 R, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 2 SB, 1 CS, 27 K, .303 wOBA
2013 Actual: 458 PA, .233 AVG, .282 OBP, .349 SLG, 45 R, 11 HR, 50 RBI, 7 SB, 3 CS, 73 K, .279 wOBA, 72 OPS+, -0.8 fWAR
OK, this one I threw in just for fun. I assumed at the time that Wells was going to stick with the Angels but they mercifully unloaded him. What really stands out is that he badly underperformed the projection systems and those were all done assuming he'd be in the tough Big A and not the hitters' haven that is Yankee Stadium. He was way, way worse than anyone could've predicted.
And with that, we end on a high note. Join us again tomorrow to go over what are sure to be some very depressing notes on how horrifically the Angels pitchers fared in comparison to their pre-season projections.
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