Yesterday, Josh Hamilton made a surprise return to the Angels lineup. This is a good thing.
Let me repeat that. THIS IS A GOOD THING.
For some reason, there are folks out there who do NOT think that this is a good thing. Leading up to his return, anytime I posted an update to Twitter on the health status of Hamilton, I got the following responses:
“Who cares? The Angels have been doing just fine without?”
“NO! He’ll mess up the chemistry!”
“Derp DERP derpy derp DERP”
To which I reply, “Dammit.”
I fully understand the folks who aren’t losing any sleep over Hamilton. I count myself among them. Hamilton just hasn’t been that good this year as he is just a 1.2 fWAR player carrying a 113 wRC+. That’s a far cry from the superstar he was supposed to be, but it is solid production. Solid is actually nice to have. However, the way that certain segment of fans reacts, you’d think the Halos were awaiting the return of the illegitimate offspring of Jeff Mathis and Vernon Wells.
Sorry, but as it turns out, the Angels are generally better with Hamilton in the lineup. I know, it sounds crazy to think that they’d be better off with a former MVP in the lineup than a fourth outfielder, a DH with a sub-.300 OBP or a guy whose best trait is his walk-up music. But don’t just take my word for it, look at the numbers.
With Josh in the lineup, the Halos have .632 winning percentage but a .619 winning percentage without him. But, yeah, tell me about the chemistry again.
With Josh in the lineup, the Angels have scored 4.68 runs per game. Without Josh, they’ve scored 5.24 runs per game. Aha! You’ve got me there! Or do you?
A lot of that run differential has come during Josh’s recent absence, an 11-game period in which the Halos have plated a staggering 90 runs. Either Josh was really holding them back or the Angels must’ve been playing a bunch of crappy teams in September when they had nothing to play for and a lot of September call-ups in the lineup. Nah, that latter scenario certainly wouldn’t be the case with the Angels playing nine games against the lowly Twins, Rangers and Astros during that span. A more accurate representation of Josh’s impact would be his run differential Josh’s previous and more lengthy injury. During that stretch, the Angels scored 4.62 runs per game, which, you know, is worse. Both stretches have small sample size issues, but the recent injury is a much smaller sample.
A corollary to the “we don’t need Hamilton” mantra is that it is OK that Josh plays, so long as Howie Kendrick continues to bat clean-up. There is at least some logic to that argument. Hamilton has the profile of a clean-up hitter, but his numbers aren’t nearly good enough this year to make it obvious that he must bat fourth. Then again, neither are Howie’s. He just got hot around the same time Hamilton went away. Again, small sample size warning.
For some though, his hot streak is good enough and him getting hot while batting clean-up (actually, he started getting hot August 20th, but that fact is very inconvenient to the anti-Hamilton crowd) is all the justification they need because him batting fourth apparently magically imbues him with improved hitting prowess. In his career, Howie has an .807 OPS batting fourth. That’s better than his career OPS, though it is only over a 178 plate appearance sample. However, if you dig deeper into Kendrick’s numbers, we find that he hits for an .804 OPS while batting seventh. And that’s over an 801 PA sample. In 288 PAs batting eighth, his OPS jumps all the way to .847. By this logic, the Halos are not getting the most out of Howie, which is supposedly the reason to keep him batting fourth.
Actually, it is just people falling victim to the hot hand fallacy. Yes, Kendrick is on fire right now but it is going to come to an end. The problem there is that nobody can predict when. He’s going to have to turn in a 2-for-18 stretch before anyone wises up to it and even starts thinking about dropping Kendrick back down in the order. If the Angels grok that and still feel like Kendrick is the best man for the job even after he cools off, fine. But if not, getting Hamilton back in the clean-up spot once he proves that he won’t be hindered by his shoulder injury would seem prudent because the offense clearly worked quite well in that arrangement.
What is probably really at play here isn’t people genuinely believing that the Angels are better off without Hamilton or by minimizing Hamilton’s role, but rather people who just plain don’t like Hamilton. He’s wildly overpaid, prone to injuries and has a polarizing personality. And now that there is a tiny window where the Halos have found success without Josh, it is all the excuse needed to try and bury an unpopular player.
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