I was planning on writing this post for about a week now. It was going to be more in the vein of wondering whether or not going with the “bullpen day” starter could hypothetically work, knowing full well that the Angels would never dare try it. But thanks to the oblique injury to Matt Shoemaker, this now has to take on the tone of, “Gosh, I hope they can make it work because they might actually have to now.”
As crazy as it seems, if Matt Shoemaker’s oblique doesn’t heal up, Mike Scioscia will have no other choice but to tab Cory Rasmus as his nominal Game 4 starter, though really it means just using Rasmus for three or four innings and then turning it over to the bullpen. It has mostly worked for the Angels so far in the four times the Angels have employed this tactic, but the playoffs are an entirely different beast compared to September baseball.
The Rasmus part of the equation is the least of the concerns. He’s pitched remarkably well since being conscripted into the rotation. Like, well enough that there is a high probability that he will enter next spring training working as a starter. The problem is that they haven’t been able to get him stretched out. His pitch count max right now is at about 50 pitches. He’s got two more starts in the regular season though, so perhaps the Angels can get him to a point where he can throw 65 pitches and safely be counted on for four innings, maybe five if things go well.
The problem is what to do in the five or so other innings. They have plenty of good relievers, but they’d be going into that game knowing that pretty much everyone is going to get used. They also lack anyone that can pitch more than two innings, which is a real problem if Rasmus gets bounced earlier than expected.
The more condensed rosters also limit the strategic options in the bullpen. One of the key features of the “bullpen day” starts has been Scioscia tabbing Michael Roth or Wade LeBlanc to immediately follow Rasmus, forcing the opposition to make a tough call on whether or not to use up a pinch-hitter early or potentially gets stuck at a platoon disadvantage in a key moment. The only left the Angels figure to carry is Joe Thatcher, who is good for at most one inning and really isn’t someone you want to expose to a right-handed batter. With him being the only southpaw bullet in the bullpen chamber, Scioscia himself might be reluctant to call on him early in the game in order to force that tough decision for the opposing manager. Heaven forbid Sosh find himself without his LOOGY in a high leverage spot in the late innings.
On the other hand, since the opposing team won’t have a deep September call-up laden bench, that “pinch-hit or not to pinch-hit” decision becomes much more difficult. Of course, part of that might depend on who the Angels draw in the ALDS. It could be a left-hand dominant Seattle lineup or a right-hand heavy Tigers team or the platoon-crazy A’s.
The bigger concern though might be that the non-super-sized roster also means that the Angels have few relievers to turn to. In the four bullpen games to date, Michael Roth, Yoslan Herrera and Vinnie Pestano have factored in heavily. If they go with the bullpen day in the playoffs, they go with it knowing full well they are going to tax their bullpen.
Part of the reason for that is the bullpen day itself, but the bigger factor is that the three remaining healthy starters aren’t exactly workhorses. C.J. Wilson is such a mess right now (or at least he was before last night) that I was originally going to suggest replacing him with a bullpen day start. If he makes another third inning exit, the bullpen is going to be toast before Rasmus’ turn in the rotation even comes up.
Before C.J. in the rotation would Hector Santiago, he of the well-documented history of being unable to pitch into the seventh inning. His starts are almost bullpen days in their own right already.
Jered Weaver isn’t the inning eater he used to be either, so counting on him for more than six innings probably isn’t very smart either. That’s potentially 10 innings of work, at a minimum, the bullpen will have to cover before the bullpen days rolls around.
In the ALDS, that might actually not be that big of a concern though. First off, the Angels bullpen should be well-rested heading into the postseason since they figure to clinch the best record in MLB with a week to go in the season. The short format of the ALDS itself is on their side. The two games-day off-two games-day off-one game format assures that no reliever has to pitch three days in a row. Pitching five times in seven days isn’t healthy either, but it also isn’t an abnormal thing. Things would get a little hairier if this arrangement had to roll into the ALCS too, but if they only have to cover one start, it seems like they should be able to handle it.
If they are really nervous about the workload, they could carry an eight-man bullpen. That would be unorthodox, but their projected bench figures to include Gordon Beckham and John McDonald. They could easily get by carrying just one of those players. They’d almost certainly get more utility out of the roster spot if they ditched McDonald in favor of Vinnie Pestano or Wade LeBlanc.
There’s nothing ideal about any of this, but desperate times call for desperate measures. As unorthodox as this might be, the “bullpen day” start has a much higher probability of success than trotting out Wade LeBlanc or Michael Roth out and crossing your fingers that they don’t get pummeled, which they probably would.
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