Two weeks ago, the term “juggernaut” was being thrown around quite liberally in relation to the Angels as they had just finished steamrolling the A’s and running off a double-digit winning streak.
Since then, the term used most frequently is “oh no.” The offense has slowed down to a more human pace, but that is fine. The bullpen has hit a few bumps in the road, which is of mild concern, but not the end of the world. The big, scary problem that is keeping us up all night is that the rotation has fallen to pieces.
Matt Shoemaker has a strained oblique and might miss the ALDS or at least be limited physically. C.J. Wilson just got pulled from a start against the A’s, a team they could very well be playing in the ALDS, after getting just two outs. Hector Santiago has pitched a combined three innings in his last two starts. Jered Weaver is really the only starter that is healthy and effective. I suppose you could count Cory Rasmus as well since he has also been healthy and effective, but he’s barely a starter.
As good as the Angels looked a few weeks ago, there is no potential playoff team that has a worse rotation situation. So they’re screwed, right?
Maybe not, at least historically speaking. As bad as the Angels rotation is right now, they are heading into the playoffs with a 4.13 ERA in this final month. That isn’t all that bad. It isn’t great, but it will certalems nly work.
It turns out that there have been quite a few teams that have had a worse ERA in the final month of the regular season before heading into the playoffs. There have been 73, to be exact. (That isn’t adjusted to era due to the limitations of Play Index, sorry). So, yeah, it could be a lot worse.
Even if it was worse, it doesn’t necessarily spell doom. Looking at the worst of the worst, the ten teams with a September/October ERA of 5.00 or worse, there is actually a shocking amount of success. The absolute worst ERA of 5.87 is owned by the 2006 Oakland A’s. They went on to sweep the ALDS before getting swept in the ALCS. Most notably, they won that ALDS by allowing a combined seven runs. In the four ALCS games, their pitching let them down a bit with the starters coughing up 18 runs in four games.
The most recent example of a terrible September rotation was the 2010 Yankees. They also won the ALDS via a three-game sweep in which they allowed just seven runs. They did go on to lose the ALCS in six games with their rotation surrendering 25 runs in the process. To be fair, 11 of those runs were charged to Phil Hughes.
Of the ten 5.00+ ERA teams, the most success clearly went to the 1999 Yankees, a team you might remember well because they just steamrolled through the post season, losing just one game en route to a World Series championship. They swept the ALDS, allowing just one run. They won the ALCS in five games, with the starters surrendering 13 runs. They finished it off by sweeping the World Series with the starters responsible for seven runs allowed with five of those belonging to Andy Pettitte.
Obviously the circumstances for each of these teams are much, much different. The Angels don’t even have an ERA that is all that bad by comparison, but they have two guys who look like they don’t belong on a mound and one more that may not be able to get on it. Is that any better or worse than the three teams mentioned above?
Things look pretty dire right now, but if Santiago pitches decently in his next start, Shoemaker ends up healing in time for Game 2 of the ALDS and Wilson “gets back on the beam,” then suddenly things look pretty rosy for the Halos. Even if only some of that happens, they aren’t screwed. The 2010 Yankees achieved some success even though one of their starters was still a mess. The Angels have such a deep bullpen that they can cover some of the deficiencies of their starters, which is pretty much what they’ve been doing most of the year anyway.
We also shouldn’t overlook the problems that some of the other contenders are facing right now either. The A’s have similar rotation problems with the recent struggles of Scott Kazmir, Jason Hammel and, to a lesser extent, Sonny Gray. Hisashi Iwakuma and Chris Young have been terrible lately for the Mariners and they just lost Roenis Elias to injury. The Tigers have an underperforming Justin Verlander and an injured Anibal Sanchez.
Every team has problems heading into the postseason. All of them could be hosed if they can’t rectify or mask those problems. If they do, they could go all the way. That includes the Angels.
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