Second Guessing Scioscia in advance of the postseason

Your regularly scheduled Second Guessing Scioscia column is being preempted this week for a special edition of Second Guessing Scioscia!

Normally, we would look back at the week that was and nitpick decisions that Mike Scioscia made and decide whether or not he made the right call. Honestly though, who really cares about some decisions Sosh made in games that were essentially meaningless for the Halos?

Not me. No, sir. What I care about are the decisions that Scioscia is going to make when the postseason starts. I’ve been in this second guessing game long enough to know that the playoffs is where good managers can go bad. There are just some managers that can’t WAIT to manage the ever-loving crap out of a playoff game just so everyone knows that they can manage. They are gonna manage so hard!

I don’t know that Scioscia will necessarily fall into that trap, but there are some blindspots that could be exposed or some old habits that might pop back up once the ALDS starts.

Don’t start Weaver on three days rest
Scioscia keeps hinting that this is going to happen. This really shouldn’t happen. Generally speaking, starting a guy on three days rest is a mixed bag of results. Some guys can handle it. Some can’t. Based on a two start sample, it doesn’t really seem like Weaver can. He done it twice and resulted in one decent start and one miserable one. Why take the chance of it being one of the miserable ones?

We’ve seen Weaver pitch much better in his last two starts thanks to improved health of his shoulder. That’s the performance level the Halos from Weaver all postseason long and starting him on short rest could jeopardize that not just for the one short rest start, but for the rest of the playoffs.

I understand the desire to want to get two starts out of Weaver and Shoemaker (assuming he’s healthy) if the series goes five games, but there is just so much risk. What I think might be a safer and possibly even better alternative to Weaver on short rest is to have Cory Rasmus and Hector Santiago combine for a piggyback start. It would work just like the first Rasmus start where the other team would load up on left-handed bats only to be forced to make a decision early in the game on who to pull when the left-handed Santiago comes in. That worked well against the A’s before rosters expanded and it should work even better now since the lefty entering the game is Santiago and not Michael Roth.

This might tax the bullpen a little bit more than normal, but with a day off before game three and another day off after Game 4, the risk of overworking the relievers is greatly reduced. It also comes with an added benefit that Santiago could pitch in relief the first two games of the ALDS. He can’t help but be an upgrade over Joe Thatcher in the LOOGY role and has the relief experience.

The one caveat is that if Matt Shoemaker is too hurt to make the ALDS roster, then Rasmus and Santiago won’t be able to piggyback. In that case, Weaver on short rest makes a lot more sense.

PROBABILITY:

This seems like a win-win to me, but there has been far too much talk from Scioscia about the three days rest option for it not to happen, especially if the Angels are down 2-1 in the series at that point.

Don’t play for one run
What I’m specifically talking about here is Scioscia resorting to smallball. In the postseason, it is easy to think that just getting that one run on the board is going to be huge. That leads to a lot of sacrifice bunting, something Scioscia avoided in the regular season. The Angels laid down just 26 sac bunts this year, with nine of those coming from John McDonald and Hank Conger.

There are rare times and places where playing for one run is fine, if not encouraged, like the bottom of the ninth of a tied game. What we can’t see Scioscia reverting to is the days when he wouldn’t hesitate to drop a bunt in the third inning. That’s the kind of thing he can leave to Ned Yost.

On a more macro level, Scioscia just needs to embrace the fact that the Angels are the best offense in baseball and that if he leaves them alone, they’ll do their job. He also needs to realize that with the troubles of the rotation, the Angels need to try and score every run available to them.

PROBABILITY:

Considering that the Angels sac bunted 37 times in 2013 and 47 times in 2012, it seems that Jerry Dipoto has gotten it into Scioscia’s head to knock that stuff off, but it remains to be seen if Scioscia will remain “on the same page” once his ass is on the line in the playoffs.

Don’t stop running
Not all the smallball philosophies should be thrown out the window though. Aggressive baserunning is a hallmark of the Scioscia era Angels. It is a big reason for their success.

The team has rated in middle of the pack in terms of value this year, so it hasn’t been a real strength. Then again, I wonder how much negative value was accrued from Gary DiSarcina’s multiple misadventures trying to run on Yoenis Cespedes. Thankfully Cespedes won’t be a problem in the postseason, though DiSar might still be.

Regardless, aggressive baserunning is a central component of their offensive attack and deeply ingrained in all the players. Though it might burn them at times, the one rule of the postseason is to not suddenly start changing how you do things. It can be very disruptive and counterproductive as it results players second guessing their own decisions in the middle of a play.

The one legitimate concern about the aggressive baserunning is that the Tigers are really the only defense they’d be facing that isn’t a very good defense, so they may not be able to pressure their opponents into mistakes as much as they might normally do.

PROBABILITY:

Scioscia is way too stubborn to stop running. It was a philosophical sticking point between him and Dipoto. There’s no reason he’d suddenly rein everyone in now. If anything, the Angels should run more, especially Mike Trout.

Don’t screw with the bullpen roles
Scioscia’s bullpen management isn’t perfect, but it has been a lot better this year. Everyone knows their role. Street closes. Jepsen and Smith set-up. Morin comes in when they need a double play and Grilli comes in mid-inning when they need a strikeout. Salas can only start an inning clean. Again, not perfect, but it will and has worked.

One of the things that Scioscia has avoided with just about everyone but Morin and Salas is having a reliever work more than an inning. While there is merit in having relievers doing that, now is not the time to suddenly ask his guys to start doing that.

That means no four-plus out saves for Huston Street. No asking Grilli to pitch two innings. No bringing in Salas to get the Angels out of a bases loaded jam.

The most tinkering he should be willing to do is bring in guys a little earlier than normal. Joe Smith shouldn’t just be reserved for the eighth inning. Anything more than that, and you are asking guys to leave their comfort zone and that is something that can really backfire in a big way.

PROBABILITY:

Scioscia’s actually been pretty dogmatic about his bullpen roles and usage rules this year. Unless the situation is truly dire, I don’t see him suddenly changing everything up.

Don’t get match-up happy
This is sort of a corollary of the last point with the bullpen. The Angels have survived all season long without really having a southpaw in the bullpen. Be it Thatcher or Santiago, the Angels figure to have at least one lefty in their bullpen.

Given how left-hand heavy the A’s, Mariners and (to a lesser extent) Royals are, there is a need to have someone around to face the tough lefties, but let’s not go crazy with it. Just because their is a platoon advantage to be exploited doesn’t mean that you should exploit it.

An example of what I mean is that if it comes down to a crucial situation where Robinson Cano is at the plate, don’t bring in the marginally talented but left-handed Joe Thatcher when you can bring in a pitcher like Street, Smith or even Jepsen who is clearly more talented.

This same suggestion can be applied to Scioscia’s pinch-hitting choices. There aren’t many situations where I envision him doing something silly though. Basically, so long as he never sends up Gordon Beckham to pinch-hit for Kole Calhoun, we’ll be cool.

The only real decision he has to make here is whether or not he starts Chris Iannetta every game against right-handed starters or if he tries to mix in Hank Conger. That’s going to have to be a case-by-case decision, but one would hope he picks Iannetta more often than not since Conger’s offensive ineptness more than cancels out the platoon advantage.

PROBABILITY:

He should know better, but I just can’t shake the feeling Scioscia is going to get a little too cute at some point along the way.

Don’t try be afraid to pull the starter
This is not time for heroes. Each and every starter is going to want to go as deep into each game as possible because they can, DAMMIT!

Scioscia should pay that no heed. Dipoto went out of his way to build an incredibly deep bullpen and Scioscia should not be afraid to use it.

Clearly Scioscia hasn’t been afraid all season long as the Angel relievers have pitched 15 more innings than any other AL team. Even with the “bullpen starts” bloating that number, they are still easily among the leaders in bullpen usage. And who could blame him? Clearly it has been working.

PROBABILITY:

Yeah, this isn’t going to a problem. Scioscia has been almost trolling his starting pitchers, especially Santiago, with how early he’s been yanking them from their starts.