Do we really know the guidelines Jerry Dipoto is working under this offseason? I think that we think we know, but do we really know?
Last offseason, we knew. Angels management said time and time again that they would not do anything that would cause them to forfeit their first round draft pick. They followed through on that by not actively pursuing any free agent that had received a qualifying offer. Instead they tried to sign guys like Matt Garza and Jason Hammel. It made sense. They were picking 15th, their highest draft pick in years. That was too valuable to give up given their beleaguered farm system.
Last trade deadline, we knew. Angels management made it quite clear that they would not do anything that would cause them to dip into the luxury tax that season or the next. Again, they backed up their words with their actions. Even when their rotation had been ravaged by injury, forcing them to conscript Cory Rasmus and the bullpen into the rotation. Guys like Bartolo Colon, Trevor Cahill and Scott Feldman were there to be had, but Jerry Dipoto shied away because while those pitchers would have helped in 2014, their contracts would’ve created luxury tax issues in 2015.
When the Angels front office doesn’t want to do something, they let us know. It isn’t always completely overt, but it also doesn’t take a mindreader either.
That’s why it is a bit curious that Dipoto and his cohorts haven’t made their restrictions this offseason known, at least not yet. We can assume from their luxury tax concerns at the trade deadline that paying the tax is once again off the table in 2015, but they haven’t come out and said it yet. Maybe they don’t feel like they need to, which they don’t. But maybe that’s also because they haven’t fully closed that door.
The most we’ve gotten out of the GM is claims that he is going to focus on strengthening the bottom of the roster, which he should do. But it also doesn’t mean that’s all he is going to do. As much as it appears that the Halos are primed for an offseason of austerity, they continue to have their name come up in regards to the big ticket pitchers on the market. Just about every rumor monger in the business believes that the Angels will be a factor in the races to sign Jon Lester, Max Scherzer and/or James Shields.
Maybe that’s why Dipoto hasn’t gone on record about their 2015 luxury tax stance. The most we’ve gotten from him is this quote:
“We are not really looking to surf in the free agent market, at least at the top end of it.”
That sounds like he is punting on signing any big names, but it also doesn’t rule it out entirely. One of the hallmarks of Dipoto’s tenure as GM is that he chooses his words carefully. He almost never puts himself in a position where he says one thing publicly and then goes against it with his actions. Dipoto has conveniently not commented on the luxury tax, specifically, yet this offseason. Perhaps he just doesn’t see the point of tipping since that has long been the team’s stance, but perhaps he wants to also keep that option available. As it just so happens, Yahoo’s Jeff Passan said on the radio the other day that he believes the Angels will definitely pay the tax so they can sign one of the big name pitchers.
It just so happens that Dipoto has gone radio silent on the topic of surrendering their first round draft pick as well. “Surfing” the free agent market for a Scherzer-type would mandate such a forfeiture. Again, Dipoto’s keeping his options open by keeping his mouth shut. And, again, it makes sense. With the best record in 2014, the Angels also have the last pick in the first round. That isn’t nearly as valuable as the 15th pick, so giving that up won’t be nearly as painful, though it will still hurt the farm system. But maybe that’s what Jerry is planning for. Maybe that is why he dropped $8 million on Roberto Baldoquin and blew past the international signing bonus pool threshold.
Or maybe we are all just trying to force our hopes onto the situation, that includes Passan. Fans always want their team to sign the star free agent. Reporters always like the narrative of a team spending big. The only people that really know what the Angels are going to try and do are the Angels themselves. Everything else is just guessing and wishcasting.
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