Matt Shoemaker and his luxuriant beard were the breakout stars of the 2014 Angels. Let’s take a look back at how he went from farm team fodder to a potential franchise building block.
How did nobody see Matt Shoemaker coming?
Anybody who says they saw Shoemaker’s breakout campaign coming is a liar. There were definitely some who thought that maybe he could emerge as an inning-eating #5 starter, but no sane person ever thought he’d be become a high quality pitcher that could dominate for stretches.
His numbers in the minors weren’t that great. He really just had one great year in a very pitcher-friendly environment in Double-A. After that, the best thing you could say about him is that he was a tough competitor in the brutal Salt Lake environment. His ERA was always ugly, but his strikeout and walk rates were respectable. His problem was that he was just a bit too hittable. To me, he had the makings of a Joe Blanton type, and I mean that in a good pre-2013 way.
For him to then jump to the majors and cut down his walks while posting the best strikeout rate of his career at any level is impossible to foresee. The hittability thing shouldn’t have been though. Shoemaker is in the zone a lot and that’s a problem at high altitude, but as we saw during his time in Arkansas, it can actually be a benefit. Sure enough, Shoe gets promoted to pitcher friendly Angel Stadium and his BABIP returns to a normal stratosphere and his problems with the longball get minimized. That should’ve given us more confidence that he could survive in the majors, but the rest was all him breaking out on his own.
Are we sure this wasn’t a fluke?
No, but I’m also not too worried. Maybe he won’t be quite this good in 2015, but he doesn’t have any peripherals that suggest he is going to crater either. There are only two things to worry about, as far as I can see.
The first is that Shoe only made 20 starts last season. That’s a decent amount, but only a few teams actually got to see him more than once and he really didn’t start going deep into games until the last six of those starts. The league just doesn’t have a good scouting report on him yet, which is one of the benefits of being an under-the-radar prospects.
The other issue is that Shoemaker struggled a bit on the road (4.08 FIP). It could easily be a small sample size blip, but it also matches up with the aforementioned theory that he’s particularly well-suited for pitching in a big ballpark. Most of the elevated FIP just comes from a 1.32 HR/9 on the road. Homers were an issue in the minors, so it could be very real, but keep in mind that three of those eight of those road dingers came while Shoe was working in relief in the early part of the season.
Did he deserve his Rookie of the Year second place finish?
I already went off about this before, but no, he didn’t. Masahiro Tanaka had a better FIP, K%, BB% and ERA- and he did it in the same number of starts and innings, but without seven relief appearances padding that inning total. Collin McHugh threw a lot more innings, had a better strikeout rate, FIP and ERA-. Quantitatively, they were better. I understand Tanaka falling off the voting radar because of his injury. I kind of understand McHugh getting overlooked because he was an Astro. Mostly though, I think the BBWAA writers just really liked Shoemaker’s “nobody ever believed in him” story. Plus, the beard. I can’t prove this, but I am pretty certain BBWAA voters are heavily influenced by quality facial hair. Apologies for raining on the parade.
Is Mike Butcher going to get any credit for Shoemaker having this breakout campaign?
No, of course not. That isn’t how Angels fans work. They won’t give Butcher credit for Shoemaker or Richards. They will, however, trip all over themselves to blame Butcher for Wilson’s decline. No Angels hitting or pitching coach has ever done anything good for anyone ever, except Bud Black.
Final Answer
In a great display of irony, the Halos spent all offseason looking for rotation depth but didn’t find it until they were forced to move Shoemaker into the rotation. That couldn’t have worked out better for everyone involved. Hooray for happy accidents!
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