Kyle McGowin was a rising star in the Angels farms system who had his ascent halted by elbow problems. Can he pick up where he left off?
Kyle McGowin
10 words or less: Great potential, but can the elbow hold up?
Position: SP Born: 11/27/1991
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6’4″ Weight: 185
2014 Rank: #28
2014 Season Stats
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PITCHING
Fastball – B-. Last year at this time, it was believed that McGowin’s success as a starter would largely be dependent upon the movement of his fastball as the offspeed pitches were seen as more of a sure thing. That’s changed slightly since, as McGowin’s 91-92 mph fastball with movement has proven to be a solid pitch to base all others off of. Last season I saw McGowin’s fastball cut, fade and sink. I can’t say whether or not this is by design or more of a go with the flow thing. Either way, it’s proven effective at the lower levels thus far.
Off-speed Pitches – B. McGowin has the hard snapping wipeout slider in place already. This is his go-to strikeout pitch and is classified as a plus-pitch, meaning it’s already above average even at the major league level. McGowin’s changeup also took a major step forward into 2014, as it was seen as a pitch that could someday be average. Instead McGowin’s changeup proved to already be an effective pitch to deploy. It isn’t “plus” the way his slider is, but it certainly looks like at least an average major league offering.
Control – B+. McGowin’s 2.5 BB/9 at Inland Empire fell directly in line with his career average. It’s safe to say Kyle McGowin has very little trouble throwing strikes.
Command – B. McGowin actually surprised me a bit in 2014. In my mind, he profiled as much more of a strikeout pitcher given the movement on his fastball and the quality of slider. This wasn’t necessarily the case as he showed a willingness to pitch to contact when needed, and the contact in general was weak, as evidenced by his high ground ball percentage and low fly ball percentage. McGowin worked both sides of the plate with all three of his pitches, and this sort of advanced approach proved too much even for the hitting friendly Cal League.
Mechanics – D. This is bound to cause a bit of a rift among those who evaluate McGowin. McGowin uses what is called the “inverted W”, and it’s used by guys like Stephen Strasburg and C.J. Wilson. The inverted W is when as the pitcher strides he keeps his glove elbow up with his glove pointed toward the ground and his throwing elbow up and throwing hand in the same down position as his glove, pointed toward the ground. This gives the pitcher a specific whipping or snapping action. Some scouts really don’t like this motion because it places an extreme amount of stress on the elbow, despite the extra zip on the fastball and break on the sliders. I gave McGowin the benefit of the doubt because this motion never caused him any arm troubles, until July of last year. It was believed he’d need Tommy-John surgery, but upon receiving a second opinion it was revealed rehab and rest may do the trick. Personally, I’m torn, because I LOVE his motion but I have to admit, it does look like an injury waiting to happen.
OVERALL
Performance – B. In his first full season, McGowin skipped over A-Ball and headed straight to the hitter-friendly California League, where he was very good. He was even promoted to Double-A. Typically this would get an “A” grade, but given that McGowin was hurt and made only one rehab appearance, we have to knock it down to a “B”. It was already believed by some that his future was in the bullpen, and I think that if McGowin can’t stay healthy that’ll definitely be an option. But the reason he ranks so high on our list is because he’s a starter.
Projection – B. In the rotation, McGowin looks like a #3-4-5 starter with his ability to throw strikes and spot his array of average to above average pitches. If he ends up transitioning into the bullpen, he’d probably scrap the changeup and amp up his fastball toward 93-94 and use his slider just the same. He could figure to be a good late inning option there too.
Estimated Time of Arrival – 2017. Despite reaching Double-A, McGowin still looks like he’s two years off, whether he’s a starter or reliever. He should be in Double-A for 2015 and if success as a starter, move on to Triple-A and then the majors. If he’s a reliever, he could spend both this year and next year in Double-AA before being promoted to the big stage.
Grade as a Prospect – C+. McGowin’s three-pitch mix makes him easily an above average prospect, but his health concerns and the fast he may need to transition to the pen knock his grade back down.
2014 in Review*
This is why the Angels can’t have nice things. Kyle McGowin was a college arm drafted in 2013, but coming from a small school, he was a bit of an under-the-radar guy, one I was actually quite excited about. Sure enough, McGowin came out this year and justified my excitement by pitching very well in the California League that earned him a quick promotion to Double-A Arkansas. McGowin was on the fast track to success and then his elbow decided “nah, I’m cool.”
Kyle made one start for the Travs and was done for the season save for one aborted rehab start in the AZL. Instead of rocketing up the organizational ladder, he logged a grand total of 65.1 innings, meaning he still hasn’t gotten a full season under his belt, something that is sure to set back his development even if his elbow ends up being fully healed next season.
Make no mistake, McGowin has some work to do. He’s been devastating versus right-handed batters with a .605 OPS, 23.0 K% and 5.9 BB%. Against lefties, however, he’s not so hot with .767 OPS, 13.0 K% and 8.3 BB%. He’s obviously not getting battered, but that’s a pretty substantial gap, one that he’ll need to close to survive as a starter in the upper levels of competition.
Looking Ahead*
Kyle McGowin was fortunate to avoid Tommy John surgery for now. The key phrase there being “for now.” Maybe he is able to rehab the injury and get back on the mound for a long period of time, but it seems like whenever we hear about these kind of scenarios, it only delays the inevitable. There is no MRI clean enough that will have the Angels treating his elbow like anything other than a ticking timebomb for the next few years.
That doesn’t mean the Halos are just going to punt him into the bullpen though. They’ve been very patient with other health challenged pitchers (see Wood, Austin), so there is no reason to think he won’t get a shot at proving himself in 2015. However, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they treat him with kid gloves should his elbow start barking again.
*As we do every year, the scouting reports and grades are provided by Scotty Allen while Garrett Wilson provides the 2014 in Review and Looking Ahead sections.
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