The Angels decided that they needed to acquire a third baseman of the very near future this offseason. Kyle Kubitza ended up being that guy. Did Dipoto make the right choice?
Kyle Kubitza
In 10 words or less: More than meets the eye with newly acquired third baseman.
(Caveat: I haven’t watched Kubitza play live yet and have watched every single video and read every scouting report possible on him)
Position: 3B Born: 7/15/90
Bats: L Throws: R
Height: 6’3″ Weight: 210
Last Year Rank: unranked (in Braves organization)
2014 Season Stats
[table id=62 /]
OFFENSE
Contact – C-. Kyle Kubitza’s ability to make contact is pretty equal with run of the mill power hitters. He’ll swing and miss quite a bit, but he shouldn’t be terrible. Actually an interesting correlation, his strikeouts on a yearly basis almost always match the amount of games, so if we go by that, Kubitza should probably fan about once per game. I like that he finishes with his hands high
Power – B. Kyle’s an interesting case in this department. He hits a ton of doubles, his gap power is outstanding. Lots of doubles and triples. The thing is, not that many homers, especially as a corner infielder. But things could change in quite a hurry. As far as his natural strength goes, it’s all there. He’s built (6’3″, 210 lbs) and has the swing (a nice, fluid uppercut from the left-side) of someone that can hit 15 or 20 home runs a year. Then there’s the environment to take into account. His already solid power numbers (50 extra base hits) were accomplished in a hitter friendly setting, quite similar to the Angels Double-A field in Arkansas. It’s easy to imagine a fair amount of his doubles and some triples possibly going over the fence in a more neutral setting. We’ve also seen Kyle get increasingly comfortable with his swing as time has passed. Every year, he’s hitting for a higher average, getting on base more frequently and definitely hitting for more power than the year before. This typically doesn’t happen because most of the time numbers go down a bit due to more advanced pitching. Another area Kyle impresses in is his line drive %. Typically, these rates hover around 15%, this last season Kubitza was absolutely locked in at 21%. And despite the uppercut swing, he popped up on the infielder in less than 1% of his plate appearances. League average in this department is about 7%. All in all, I’d say Kubitza has good power for now, but it seems evident he could have very good power later. Possibly even 30 DB 15 HR type in the majors, which is Pablo Sandoval territory, which results in a hundred million dollars.
Discipline – A+. I can’t tell you how refreshing it is to finally be able to give one of these out in the discipline department. Not since Mike Trout have I been able to ole out an A+ here. A .405 OBP and 70-80 walks a year is fantastic! A perfect candidate to hit between Kole Calhoun and Mike Trout. What’s particularly impressive with Kubitza isn’t necessarily the fact that he can work and count and take a walk, though that’s important too. He never tries to do too much with the pitches. He seems to have no problem driving pitches on the outer half to the opposite gap and has shown the ability to hit the ball to all fields. This is what really makes him a good candidate for major league baseball.
Speed – C. Yeah, I see the 21 stolen bases and the 18 he stole a couple of years before that. Kubitza isn’t slow. I just don’t believe he’s fast really as much as he is a smart base runner. He picks his spots and still gets thrown out more than you’d prefer but he’s aggressive and that seems to be the Angels philosophy, take the extra base even when it looks iffy. Watching Kubitza run actually reminds me a bit of watching Mark Trumbo run. He was actually pretty fast for such a big guy. That’s how Kubitza looks on video.
DEFENSE
Arm – B. Kyle Kubitza has a good arm at third base with smooth actions and a quick release. It won’t be elite like Cowart’s but Kubitza’s arm will never be questioned in it’s fit for the hot corner.
Fielding – D. I know positive reports have flooded in above his glove and ability, and I’m guessing that if I get to watch him for longer than 5 minute segments my mind might change, but right now I have to adhere to the stats. His .924 fielding percentage this past season in AA would’ve have ranked him dead last among everyday third baseman in the major leagues. The average fielding percentage among third baseman is usually around .950, and you’re generally considered fine if you’re .940 or above. The issue is, while Kubitza has improved every year, his fielding percentage has never sniffed .940. I can’t give him an “F” here, so I’ll give him the “D” and wait and see.
Range – C. Everything I’ve read and seen reports Kubitza’s range is just fine for a third baseman, though I’ve heard he’s excellent when coming in on a ball.
OVERALL
Performance – B+. Kyle Kubitza keeps getting better every year and it became apparent when Cowart continued to flounder in AA that the Angels would need a replacement for Freese should he leave in free agency after this year. Sure, the Angels probably overpaid for Kubitza in Ricardo Sanchez who might be an elite pitcher at some point, but they were absolutely in a hard place. There aren’t too many quality 3B prospects in the minors that are available for trade. Teams tend to hang onto the good quality ones. Not only did the Angels get themselves what looks to be a good bat and adequate fielder, in the same player it looks as if they managed to add another LH bat to balance the lineup and someone that gets on base enough and is quick enough to slot between Calhoun and Trout, who are both excellent at getting on base and are fast. Kubitza’s .290 batting average a .405 OBP are a rarity in the minor leagues, especially in the Angels system.
Projection – B. This should be really interesting. Kubitza’s low minor numbers weren’t really impressive. In fact he was really only eye-openingly good this last year. Is he progressing and maturing or are the numbers a fluke? Metrics indicate they’re very much authentic, but the thing is, will will really know in AAA his season. Salt Lake is the most hitter friendly field in the most hitter friendly league in the minors. Kubitza might hit 30 HR’s there and we still wouldn’t know if the numbers would translate. Right now, my best guess is Kubitza becomes the Angels #2 hitter and produces something like .280/.360 with 30 doubles 10 HR’s and average defense (once Alfredo Griffin works with him). Seems pretty solid for a major league third baseman in this pitching heavy era.
Grade as a Prospect – B. Kyle Kubitza’s size, athleticism, premium position, strength and discipline all make him a high ranking prospect. He’s heading into his age 24 season, so he’s a little on the older side to receive a lot of prospect hype, but he just keeps getting better every year.
Estimated Time of Arrival – 2016. I expect Kubitza might spend some time with the Angels in 2015, but 2016 should be the year he actually enters their starting lineup. The numbers he puts up in the PCL should be fun to watch though.
2014 in Review*
With Kyle Kubitza being a Braves prospect up until about a week or two ago, we are very much playing catch up on exactly what his deal is. Just diving right into his stats, he’s a very interesting position player that hasn’t seen an equivalent in the Angels organization for quite some time. The current knock on Kubitza is that despite being a big guy, he doesn’t hit for that much power as he popped just eight dingers in Double-A last season and 12 in Advanced-A the year before. However, he also had a .175 ISO in each of those seasons, which is pretty solid and built on the back of him hitting a ton of doubles and triples (he had 11 in 2014!).
The other knock is that Kubitza strikes out a lot. He has gone down swinging in 25% of his plate appearances each of the last two seasons. That’s a profile we’ve typically seen the Dipoto regime shy away from the last few years.
However, what looks to be the real selling point of Kubitza is his ability to get on base. He walked in 14.6% of his plate appearances last year which led to his stellar .405 OBP. It was also probably a major contributor to his strikeout rate. There is plenty of swing-and-miss in Kyle’s game, but the strikeouts get inflated due to the sheer number of deep counts he works himself into. If he can continue to maintain the same kind of walk rate as he reaches the majors, it will make all the whiffs more than palatable.
Defensively, reports are that Kubitza made some real strides in the last few years and has become a quality defender at the hot corner. There are som reports that disagree with that assessment, so let’s just say that the jury is still out.
Looking Ahead*
Thanks to the untimely demise of Kaleb Cowart’s hitting ability, Jerry Dipoto specifically went out to land a third baseman of the future this offseason and found that guy in Kyle Kubitza. As such, Kubitza is virtually assured of being the Opening Day third baseman in 2016. All he needs to do is just not screw it up over the next year.
One of the way that Kubitza could “screw up” is by seeing his BABIP crate. Kubitza was able to achieve that .405 OBP last season thanks in large part to a .295 average, an average that was built upon a .401 BABIP. Obviously, that is a very high BABIP, especially for a big guy. However, Kubitza has generally had high BABIPs, including a .344 in 2013. That’s kind of a problem because BABIP isn’t all the much under his control. As a result, there is a chance that if he hits the BABIP wall, that his average could crater and make him look bad.
Even if that happens though, Kubitza still has all those walks to buoy his offensive profile. In a lot of ways he is like a third base version of Chris Iannetta. Lots of whiffs, not as many homes as you’d like, a subpar batting average but just a metric ton of walks. That seems like a pretty reasonable future for Kubitza.
It will only be all the better if Kubitza can avoid falling into a platoon role. Despite swinging left-handed, Kubitza’s wOBA split is virtually even over his minor league career. He was actually a good bit better against southpaws in Double-A in a small sample size. Continuing to hold his own against lefties assures that Kubitza gets to be the starting third baseman of the future for the Halos and not just part of the future third base solution.
*As we do every year, the scouting reports and grades are provided by Scotty Allen while Garrett Wilson provides the 2014 in Review and Looking Ahead sections.
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