2015 Player Projection: Jered Weaver

Jered Weaver showed in 2014 that he isn’t an ace anymore, but he did have his moments towards the end of the season. Could we be in for a return to the Weave of old in 2015 or should we ready ourselves for another year of his decline into mediocrity?

What happened in 2014?
Jered Weaver had one of the worst years of his career, but also one of that inspired hope, which is kind of weird. He allowed a career-high in homers and FIP and also had an ERA and walk rates well above his career norms. For a guy in his age 31 season, that would be cause for concern except that Weaver turned around two important trends.

After three straight seasons of declining velocity and strikeout rates, Jered managed to correct both. He actually bumped his strikeout rate up to 19.0% from 18.5% in 2013. That’s still a full percentage point short of where he was at his peak, but at least the number is moving in the right direction. In a possible related development, Weaver also finally stopped shedding MPHs off his fastball, once again finishing the year with an 86.8 MPH average fastball. There is some nuance in that number to be sure, but the high level takeaway is that whatever physical or mechanical issues that caused him to drop from 90.1 MPH in 2010 have at least temporarily been stopped in their tracks. That portends well for Weaver being able to extend his effectiveness for another few years.

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*The MWAH projections are simply my best guess based off my own personal opinion and research (my wOBA calculation is approximate because my math skills are only “meh”)

What do the projections think he will do in 2015?
Well, they are kind of all over the map, aren’t they? Steamer paints what appears to be doomsday scenario of Weaver turning into a Home Run Derby pitcher and struggling to stay above replacement level. ZiPS sees Weaver getting slightly worse and significantly less durable. CAIRO though doesn’t see much reason for panic. In other words, just about everything is on the table.

Does the Monkey agree or disagree?
I guess you could say that I’m a Be-Weaver… I am so sorry…

Anyway, yes, I have faith in a mini-resurgence for Jered Weaver. I can’t say that my belief stems from any deep analytical finding or anything even close really, this one is totally gut feel. What I saw from Weaver last year was a guy that would be clicking along for five innings and then just start falling apart. He had been such a workhorse in the past, but it became a struggle for him just to get through six innings, something he used to do with ease.

Finding out that he was somehow under 200 lbs. last year despite being 6’7″ certainly seems like an issue for stamina. Weaver has always been skinny, but that seems like Christian Bale in The Machinist skinny. With his increased bulk this year, I’m hopeful that it will help him handle heavy workloads again.

I also am a believer in his velocity resurgence as it all but confirmed what I’d thought about Weaver for a good two years now. To refresh your memory, Weaver magically amped up his velocity with three games left in the 2014 season and carried it into the postseason. In those games, Jered was working in the 88-91 MPH range like he did in his prime. Early in the 2014 season, Weaver would go entire starts without touching 88 MPH.

via Fangraphs

When asked about it, Weaver said he was finally feeling healthy for the first time in years, which I totally buy. Jered has given hints for the last few seasons that he’s been nursing shoulder and biceps soreness. I firmly believe that Weaver was either still plagued by these issues in 2014 or, more likely, was deliberately holding back to preserve his arm for the stretch run. When the playoffs got near, Jered decided to cut loose and see what would happen and the results were excellent.

THREE OPEN QUESTIONS FOR JERED WEAVER IN 2015
1) Where’d that late season velocity come from?
As I said, I think Weaver had been holding back. Either he just decided to damn the consequences and pitch with pain but more velocity late in the season or he had been tinkering with his arm slot to try and find a way to throw harder and/or with less pain. Those late seasons starts are where his plan all came together. His arm slot did change this season, but he didn’t risk removing the governor on his velocity until it was worth it. I think now that he has seen that he can do it, he’ll be less conservative about letting it rip in 2015. Of course, maybe he only let it rip for a few starts in 2014 because he knows that he can only gut through the pain for so long and he’ll have to manage himself carefully again in 2015.

2) What happened with all the homers in 2014?
My belief is that the homer issue is related to the same mechanics changes he made regarding his velocity. By dropping his arm slot, my theory is that Weaver needed to time to find his command, which led to the spike in dingers. Throwing slower doesn’t help either as there is less margin for error. There are other factors that may play into this though. Weaver threw a lot more curves and changeups last year, so it could be a drop in the effectiveness of those pitches or just a side effect due to a change in his pitch sequencing.

3) How much crap am I going to get from Angels fans everytime I point out that Jered Weaver isn’t an ace anymore?
All. The correct answer is “all.”

The Final Word (and GIF)
“#@&!”

This is how I’m going to feel if my lofty projection for Weaver goes horribly awry. I almost feel like I should say “when” instead of “if” because Weaver really is walking such a thin line between being a front-of-the-rotation starter and a back-of-the-rotation slop baller.