2015 Player Projection: Jose Alvarez

Jose Alvarez missed most of 2013 but his offseason work impressed the Angels front office. He continued his strong work this spring and now looks poised to make the Opening Day roster.

[table id=94 /] *The MWAH projections are simply my best guess based off my own personal opinion and research (my wOBA calculation is approximate because my math skills are only “meh”)

What happened in 2014?
The Angels were desperate for starting pitching depth going into the 2014 season, so they traded utility infielder Andrew Romine to Detroit for Jose Alvarez. The Tigers were also desperate for rotation depth, so that was kind of weird, but I guess they were more desperate for shortstop depth. Either way, the Angels got what they needed.

Alvarez was actually an intriguing acquisition at the time because he was coming off a highly successful season in Triple-A the year before. He never had much of a prospect profile, but the Angels were hoping that whatever he was doing in the minors would play in the majors.

After getting off to a slow start in Triple-A, Alvarez got a called up to the bigs to help out the beleaguered pitching staff. He made two very brief appearances, facing a combined three batters, and was returned to the minors where he continued to struggle. However, he was shut down after 30.2 innings due to elbow problems. So much for rotation depth, right?

Alvarez ended up having to have loose bodies removed from his elbow, so the elbow problems ended up not being all that severe, but it did cost him most of the season and a big opportunity to impress the Angels brass.

What do the projections think he will do in 2015?
Based on the innings projection, we can probably just throw Steamer out. That’s too bad for Jose Alvarez because it was the one projection that had his back. ZiPS pretty much hates Alvarez and CAIRO just really, really dislikes him. In both instances they see Alvarez being incapable of missing bats and incapable of keeping the ball in the park.

Does the Monkey agree or disagree?
To me, the big question for Alvarez is whether or not he can miss bats. In his 2013 Triple-A campaign, he fanned over eight batters per nine, but he was below five per nine in Double-A in 2012 over 136.1 innings. That’s kind of a massive disparity. Because I’m just not very bold and daring, I figured I’d split the baby and project Alvarez to have a modest strikeout rate.

Actually, I think the real issue for Alvarez is that he isn’t going to be used as a LOOGY much. Much of that work is going to go to Ramos, so Alvarez is not going to have his stats padded by having the platoon advantage. However, he has been able to generate whiffs decently more often than he has been totally incapable, so he should be able to post a decent number.

The rest of his line seems to be problematic though, again because of the lack of platoon advantage. I also don’t believe that his stuff is going to play up much as a reliever. And I base that on the whopping three MLB batters I’ve seen him face and a handful of Spring Training appearances, so you might want to take that with a mine of salt.

THREE OPEN QUESTIONS FOR JOSE ALVAREZ IN 2015
1) Is Alvarez really going to make the Opening Day roster?
It sure looks like it. The Angels even bumped him up to be a starter in yesterday’s game just so he would have a chance to work with Chris Iannetta before the season began. He satisifies the Angels’ desire to have a second left-handed pitcher in the bullpen but also have a pitcher with some length. There is a small chance that the Halos might decide that Drew Rucinski provides enough length and go with Scott Snodgress as more of a LOOGY, but the organization seems too high on Alvarez after a very strong winter ball season to go that route.

2) Will he actually be able to stay on the roster?
He probably has a better chance of holding down his roster spot than Rucinski does because he has the benefit of being a second lefty. When Richards comes back, the length won’t be as necessary, but the flexibility of a second lefty won’t change. However, he’ll have to pitch well to keep his spot because he is the arm most likely to be cycled up and down from the minors as the Angels mess with the composition of the bullpen based on the current need. That means both pitching well in mop-up duty and pitching well as a specialist.

That latter part could be the key for Alvarez. He’s mostly worked as a starter in the minors, so he isn’t really accustomed to changing his approach. How quickly he adapts to being a LOOGY will go a long way towards his tenure on the roster. He’s normally a four-pitch pitcher, so he’ll need to figure out the best way for him to trim down his arsenal in short outing situations. He’s shown pretty disparate platoon splits in the minors, so maybe he already has a basic idea, but we will need to see him put that idea into practice.

3) Are these the exact same questions used for Rucinski yesterday?
What? WHO TOLD YOU?!?!! Errr, I mean, I don’t know what you’re talking about. This is a totally original projection profile put together with a great deal of thought and consideration and definitely not one hastily put together because I didn’t really expect Alvarez to make the roster when I first started this series. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

The Final Word (and GIF)
“POP!”

As much as fans are excited about Drew Rucinski, the Angels coaches and scouts are excited about Alvarez. He’s the guy that they’ve been going out of their way to talk up when chatting with reporters. He’s the one with helium, their eyes. The tricky thing about helium though is that it makes balloons float and balloons pop sometimes. I don’t know if Alvarez will go pop, but despite all the nice things the club is saying about him, it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising if he gets demoted by the end of April to never be heard from again. To be fair, it wouldn’t be surprising either if he pitches 80+ innings this year, flipping between the bullpen and the rotation either.