When should we actually start worrying about Jered Weaver’s velocity?

Everyone freaked out over Jered Weaver‘s velocity dip on Opening Day. Weaver has never been a fireballer, but with an 83.5 MPH average fastball, there’s some real concern that Weaver finally might have lost too much velocity. It might also just be a weird annual false alarm.

There’s really no sugarcoating an 83.5 MPH average fastball. Even by Weaver standards, that’s extraordinarily slow. We’re talking Jamie Moyer-esque velocity here. It is far and away the slowest single game average fastball velocity Weaver has ever posted. Seriously, look at the below chart and all the way on the right that black mark that looks like it might just be an accidental smudge is actually his velocity for Opening Day 2015.

The previous low for him was 85.8 MPH, almost two and a half miles per hour more. However, it doesn’t mean he is damned to throwing at the same velocity as the average D-III high schooler either.

You see, Jered apparently has an issue with reaching back and maxing out on velocity on Opening Day. In 2014, his first start of the season featured his second-lowest single game velocity of the season at 86.4 MPH. By his fourth start, he had ramped up to 87.8. In 2013, he was at 86.7 MPH on Opening Day. He got hurt early in his second start, but when he returned from the DL several weeks later he was at 87.9 MPH. 2012 broke the pattern though as that ended up being one of his top reading of the year. But 2011 he was back to his old tricks, throwing just 89.3 MPH on Opening Day before pumping up to 91.9 MPH in his third start. 2010, more of the same as he started at 88.8 and reached 91.7 in his fourth start.

In other words, Weaver isn’t exactly screwed. He has a proven history of quickly being able to add between 1.5 and 2.0 MPH to his fastball, and more or less hold there, within his first four starts. He just needs a little bit of time to warm up.

In fact, he might literally need to warm up. One of the commonalities in his slow starts has been that the temperature during those games has been downright chilly. All of the aforementioned Opening Day starts for Weaver had a start time temperature between 47 and 60 degrees. There was just one exception, which would be in 2012 when it was 69 degrees. Perhaps not so coincidentally, that was the one year he didn’t suffer the Opening Day velocity drop.

As you likely know, Weaver has a pretty extensive and arduous stretching regimen that he uses to ready himself to pitch and he considers himself to highly dependent on this routine. The idea behind stretching is to get oneself loose, but that is a lot harder to do when it is cold out.

The catch in all this is that Weaver is going to be “warming up” from such a low point. Even if he adds 1.5 MPH, he’d still be working at the very bottom of the velocity range that he’d been in before. That certainly lends one to think that the problem was that Weaver was not just cold but also old.

In my own stupidity, I actually thought there was a chance Weaver might gain velocity this year. We saw in his final handful of starts in 2014 that Jered was capable of reaching back for something extra when he is healthy and/or just plain feels like it. My working theory is that he is now healthy and doesn’t work in the 88-91 MPH range every game just to maintain that health. I figured he’d dust off the good heat on days where he felt particularly good or for big games. This 83.5 MPH performance really blew a hole in that theory.

At least I think it did. Weaver had some velocity ups and downs this spring too. There was an early Cactus League start that sparked a similar panic as Weaver was working in this same 83 MPH range. Later in the spring he was back to his new normal of about 87 MPH, so the fear was allayed. That could happen again now and history suggests that it will, but it might be time to admit that Weaver’s age and the mileage on his arm has finally taken its toll. He’ll come up from the 83.5 MPH mark, but 86 MPH might be his new, new normal and the days where he reaches back will be the 87 MPH range he mostly worked in last season.

I’d love to blindly believe that his Opening Day showing was strictly a result of the chilly weather, but 54 degrees isn’t that cold. Unless Jered returns to warmer climes in his next start or two and magically regains three to four miles per hour instead of one and a half to two miles per hour, then it might finally be time to admit that Weaver has passed the point of no return and will forever be lost to the realm of Jamie Moyer.