An entirely too early look at Mike Trout versus high pitches

Mike Trout entered the 2015 with a few different goals: he wanted to swing earlier and more often, he wanted to strikeout less and he wanted to solve his problem with pitches up in the zone. These are goals that in some ways are all in concert with each other and in conflict with each other at the same time. Trout is going to try to accomplish those goals nonetheless, and if anyone can pull it off it is Mike Trout. With that in mind, let’s check in on the progress being made by Mike Trout versus high pitches and strikeouts.

Are we really going to do that just eight games and 33 plate appearances into Trout’s season? Hell yes. Is that probably too early to draw meaningful conclusions? Almost certainly. Does that mean it isn’t interesting? Definitely not.

We’re talking about Mike Trout here. He’s the best player in the world and the fact that he might actually have a weakness is utterly fascinating. In other words, take your small sample size caveat and shove it. I get it. I’m aware of it, but we’re going to look at this anyway. Just because information isn’t completely conclusive doesn’t mean that it is without value.

First and foremost, the strikeouts. After seeing his whiff rate spike to 26.1% last season, Trout is down to just 18.2% this year. That means he has fanned six times in 2015, three of which came against Felix Hernandez, so you can’t be too mad about that. Considering how bad the problem was for him at times last year, eight games of relatively low strikeouts is exciting to see.

So far so good, right? Fewer strikeouts was one of the goals. But how is he accomplishing that goal? Good question, I’m glad I asked.

One of Trout’s professed beliefs was that he was putting himself in a hole by taking so many first pitches for strikes, something opposing pitchers were aware of and freely exploiting. Last year he only swing at 10.6% of first pitches. He’s literally doubled that in 2015 thus far by offering at 21.6% of first pitches. That hasn’t really resulted in anything meaningful in terms of results as he’s only put three of those first pitches in play, but it might be serving a greater purpose by keeping pitchers honest.

It has, however, seemingly had a trickle down effect on his aggressiveness. Trout is swinging more in general this year, up by nearly five full percentage points from his career swing rate (38.5% to 42.4%). That comes from Trout swinging more at both pitches in the zone and out of the zone. That part is less great. Trout has a great eye, but he might undermining that eye with this new approach if this increased rate of swinging at balls out of the zone persists. Given that his production has been strong so far and that his contact rate has only taken a small hit, the more aggressive approaching seems to be working… so far.

It may not be a problem though if Trout is swinging at the right pitches out of the zone. We all know that Mike is devastating on pitches low-and-inside. Just because it is a little out of the zone or a little off the plate doesn’t mean Mike Trout can’t put a hurt on it (just ask Chris Sale). But when it comes to Mike Trout versus high pitches, that is where he needs to show more restraint. That’s the “controlled aggression” Don Baylor is always going on about.

On that front, there is good news:

The image scale here makes the numbers hard to read, but it doesn’t matter that much. Just know that when it comes to Mike Trout and his swings per pitch, blue good, red bad. At least up in the zone. The 2015 map has a lot less red in the upper-third of the zone. That’s really Trout’s best strategy for combating his weakness. Trout’s problems weren’t just that he had a hard time making contact on high pitches, it was also that when he did make contract, it was poor contact. The solution? Don’t swing at high pitches and thus far Trout is doing just that.

Overall, Trout is swinging at roughly the same percentage of high pitches (there s some weirdness on the number in the top left corner of the 2015 map though) but he has drastically cut down on pitches in the upper third of the actual strike zone. He had been swinging at 56% of those pitches last year, but is down to 33% this year. Whether or not he will be able to sustain that is a multi-faceted question.

Is Trout really laying off high strikes or is this just small sample size nonsense? We are seeing it so far, but that doesn’t mean Trout is going to continue to be able to keep his “controlled aggression” in balance.

Will pitchers attack him up in the zone more or less if he doesn’t swing at as many high pitches? It might be that pitchers realize Trout isn’t going to swing at high strikes, so they exploit his unwillingness to swing and pick up free strikes. It might also mean that pitchers decide that pitching him up in the zone isn’t worth the risk now that he isn’t getting himself out as much because if they throw up in the zone and miss, they are going to get hit hard.

Will his increased selectivity help him have better results when he does swing at high pitches? Maybe now he is able to lock in on the types of high pitches he can do damage on and, in so doing, scare pitchers away from working him up in the zone.

Again, it is incredibly early in the season. None of this is to be considered anywhere close to conclusive, but it at least points us to the right areas to monitor as the games go on and the sample size becomes more and more meaningful. Things are looking up, for sure, but there is still plenty of time for these changes in approach to turn around and start working against Trout, especially once pitchers adjust to his adjustments.