I really should learn my lesson. Anytime a big name hits the trade market, I wonder what it would take for the Halos to trade for that big name only to have them not really show any interest. I know that. You know that. The Angels know that. Yet here I am wondering what an Angels trade for Troy Tulowitzki would look like now that he is allegedly considering requesting a trade.
Really, I blame Jay Jaffe who gave credence to the idea by suggesting the Halos as one of four best matches as a new home for Tulo:
Like the Mariners, the Angels appear to be in need of some offense. They’re 16–17 and second-to-last in the American League in scoring at 3.73 runs per game. Via the Orange County Register’s Jeff Fletcher, GM Jerry Dipoto is already thinking about additions. Particularly since Josh Hamilton has been run out of town, the team’s primary needs are in leftfield and at designated hitter, where both Matt Joyce and C.J. Cron have taken up residence below the Mendoza Line.
At shortstop, 31-year-old Erick Aybar is hitting just .246/.298/.270. He is making $8.5 million this year and owed the same amount next year, his final one before free agency—not too shabby for a player who has averaged 3.5 WAR for the past four seasons. If Colorado isn’t interested in Aybar directly as part of a deal (obviously, it would take more than him), he could be used to fetch something that might provide a better fit, such as a young arm.
Dammit, it makes so much sense! It does make sense, right? I’m not crazy to think that?
Yeah, the Angels have Erick Aybar entrenched at shortstop already. His slow start is really of no consequence to me though as few players in baseball have been more consistent over the last several years. He’s been consistently regarded as one of the most underrated players. Of course, if you are being consistently underrated, there’s usually a pretty good reason behind it.
Aybar is a nice player, but hardly someone who is considered a franchise cornerstone. Tulowitzki, however, very much is. Six of the last seven seasons he has been worth over five wins. The lone exception came in a year where he only played 47 games. That’s a big upgrade over Aybar. That’s a big upgrade over anyone not named Trout on this stars and scrubs roster, which is actually more like a star and scrubs roster, especially on offense. Arte Moreno is on record as saying Aybar is his favorite player, but even he has to admit that replacing him with a superstar makes sense.
With Tulowitzki, the Angels would actually have another legit stud to pair with Mike Trout in the middle of the order, which has been more like a donut hole in the order this year. Albert Pujols clearly isn’t a star anymore and is currently playing like he’s barely even a league average starter anymore. The mere fact that Scioscia has had to resort to batting Aybar fifth this year speaks to how much the lineup needs another elite bat like Tulo’s.
No one would argue with needing a bat like Tulo’s, but the question is should it be Tulo’s bat specifically. The Angels have other roster holes that need addressing long before they look to upgrade at short. Left field, DH, third base and second base all seem like bigger areas of need when it comes to roster improvements. The wrinkle is that finding an actual player of Tulowitzki’s caliber is not all that easy at any of those positions. Stars don’t come on the trade market all that often, so the Angels have to at least consider Tulo regardless of what the current depth chart looks like.
Affording Tulowitzki is an entirely different question. The Angels don’t have a lot of high-end prospects in their system, so they’d be hard-pressed to trump the offers of prospect-rich clubs like the Mets, who have already been linked to Tulo. However, having Aybar might actually help them in that regard. For one, the Rockies might value adding a quality veteran who can step in for Tulo immediately. The Rockies are kind of weird that way. They are strangely content to win about 70 games each year with a collection of “good guy” veterans. More likely though is that Aybar could be used by the Angels to flip to another club in exchange for prospects that the Rockies like, thus allowing the Angels to supplement their offer with assets they normally wouldn’t have. Maybe the Rockies want a younger shortstop, which the Angels don’t really have in their system (Baldoquin can’t be traded for months still), but they could get one by sending Aybar to San Diego for Jose Rondon and another prospect, or something like that. That may not be all that easy though as whatever team that would have interest in Aybar would likely have interest in Tulowitzki as well, so they’d probably try to build their own package around the prospect in question. No one said this would be easy.
The Angels would have to find a team with a need at short but also the lack of budget space available to take on Tulo’s contract. That’s where they best hope that the Mets and Padres simply decide that they don’t have quite enough financial flexibility to acquire Troy. That creates a market for Aybar that otherwise isn’t there.
Speaking of that contract, that is kind of an issue unto itself. He’s owed $20 million per year through 2019 before his salary drops to $14 million in 2020 with a $15 million team option in 2021 (or a $4 million buyout). That’s $118 million in guaranteed money. That isn’t an entirely ridiculous number in this market. Troy would probably get twice that if he hit the open market. It is also a number the Angels can afford, barely, under the luxury tax thanks to clearing out Josh Hamilton.
The problem is whether or not it is a sound investment. Remember how I said that Tulo had been worth 5+ wins in six of the last seven seasons? Well that one season he missed was because of injury. He’s also played 126 or less games in each of the last three seasons due to injury, which make his 5+ win value impressive, but his lack of durability highly concerning. With Tulowitzki now on the wrong side of 30, it doesn’t seem likely that he is magically going to develop an ability to stay healthy, although getting out of the fatiguing altitude in Denver should help a little bit.
It certainly is concerning that Tulowitzki has gotten off to a slow start this year. Everyone has bad months, but Tulo has virtually stopped walking, seen his strikeouts spike and his power dip. It could be a fluke, but given that his defense is also rating rather poorly, it could also be a sign that all those injuries are starting to catch up with Troy. The last thing the Angels need to do is make a long-term commitment to another star that is on the verge of falling off a cliff. Been there, done that, got the t-shirt and the $68 million bill still to be paid for the last guy. I highly suspect that Arte Moreno will come to the same conclusion.
Let’s assume for a second that Moreno has another “damn the consequences, I want him” moment and orders Dipoto to get Tulowitzki. Is there even a package that they can offer that would entice Colorado given what we already discussed?
They’d certainly have to include Andrew Heaney or Sean Newcomb or both. I can’t imagine Dipoto would surrender both though, so it would likely end up being a Heaney-based package. They’d have to supplement the deal with another big arm in their top 10 like Victor Alcantara. Even if you factor in whatever they could get by flipping Aybar elsewhere, that package still feels well short of what other teams could offer. You could even have Colorado pick any other non-Newcomb prospect from the Angel system and it still feels pretty weak. Their only real hope is that the Halos prove to be the only team that doesn’t balk about giving up a premium package of prospects and paying all of Tulowitzki’s deal.
Stranger things have happened (see the Greinke trade), but I doubt the Angels even bother trying. Moreno seems to be real into this austerity thing and Dipoto has worked too hard to get the farm system back onto the road to not being a total joke. This might be their only chance to land another star player this year, but an Angels trade for Troy Tulowitzki appears to have much more long-term risk than short-term or long-term reward.
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