Putting the Huston Street contract extension in perspective

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Well it took about six weeks longer than expected, but the Angels finally have their Proven Closer locked up for a few extra seasons. Huston Street agreed to a two-year, $18 million extension on Wednesday that will keep him in Anaheim through at least 2017. The deal also includes a $10 million team option (with a $1 million buyout) for a third year, meaning if all goes well Street gets to join Mike Trout and Albert Pujols as the only Halos under contract through the 2018 season.

$18 million is the most guaranteed money the Angels have ever handed out to a reliever, besting the immensely regrettable Brian Fuentes deal by half a million. As Garrett noted yesterday, the typical concerns about handing over gobs of guaranteed money to relievers apply here, just like they always do. Still, it’s hard not to like paying $9 million annually for three years of a guy with Street’s pedigree—especially when you consider that he was asking for as much as $46 million over four years. What’s more, his new annual salary is about $600k less than the average closer has received from multi-year deals since 2008. That’s not a lot of savings, but it is some. And the discount the Angels got isn’t really even an extension vs. free agency thing: Closers have actually netted slightly more money from extensions ($9.91M AAV) than on the open market ($9.30M AAV) the last eight years.

It’s tempting to wonder whether his two blown saves last week somehow played into the lesser cost, but it’s hard to imagine two poor outings would trump ten years of solid production. If it somehow did, Street should definitely fire his agent.

Street Salary History

Street’s salary history is kind of fascinating to look at, with its trio of three-year extensions and oddly static dollar amounts. My favorite part is the way it slowly dawns on you that if he makes it through all three years of this latest extension, he will have 14 MLB seasons under his belt, for at least four different teams, and not have spent a single day on the open market. The Players Union must throw a fit every time an extension rumor pops up with his name attached.

 

Thank You, Scott Boras?

One of the few reliever comps for Huston Street, in terms of his combination of relative youth and experience, is Rafael Soriano. The former Yankees and Nationals closer was just two years older than Street (33) upon entering his 11th year (2013) in the big leagues, at which time he and Scott Boras negotiated a two-year, $28 million contract with Washington that included an option for a third season.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Street’s agent cited that specific deal as a reason his client deserved a seven-figure annual contract like the one David Robertson (4/$46M) got this winter. Street has 187 more saves and 176 more innings pitched than Soriano did at the time that contract was inked, so there was really no way to argue that Street didn’t deserve at least what Soriano got.

Except that the Soriano story doesn’t end with that contract. All the Angels had to do to effectively counter that argument was to point out how that deal ended (with a buyout), and where Soriano stands now. Namely, that he’s still without a team six weeks into the regular season and that Boras doesn’t seem any closer to finding him a home than he did in January. If that’s the kind of risk baked into signing a seemingly elite closer who hasn’t been on the disabled list since 2011, how much higher are the stakes for one who’s visited the DL three times in the last three years? High enough to keep Street from getting that third guaranteed season? Maybe. I’m convincing myself that this was a thing, even if it never was.

 

Climbing the Saves Leaderboard

Street’s recorded 11 saves already this year, putting him at 286 for his career. With another 28, he will move into the top 20 on the all-time list. If we assume that he’ll save at least 25 a year over the life of the extension, he’ll be just outside the top seven by the time 2019 rolls around.

There’s not much in the way of historical precedence to indicate whether Street will be able to maintain even the meager pace of 25 saves a season, but there is one guy we can compare him to:

Street vs KRod

These are the strikingly similar numbers for the first 10 full seasons, ages 21-30, of Street (Player B) and Francisco Rodriguez (Player A). K-Rod began his age-31 season (2012) at 294 saves, but lost his closer job midway through the season, regained it the next, and has now added an additional 61 saves in the two-plus years since then.  If K-Rod can continue to rack up saves like that while giving up dingers every other inning and being something of a league pariah, then Street should do just fine in that department, barring injury.

 

Channeling Mariano

Of course, saves aren’t the end-all, be-all in determining whether the extension will be a success. (They aren’t the end-all, be-all for anything, really.) For Street and his limited firepower, it all comes down command. Can he continue to trick batters into offering at a ridiculous number of pitches out of the zone?

Over the last three seasons, Street has been the best in baseball at inducing contact on non-strikes. Per Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs, more than half of the balls put in play against Street in 2014 were pitches out of the zone. As you might expect, batters not named Vlad Guerrero have a very hard time squaring up pitches off the plate, which is probably a big part of why the league owns just a .226 BABIP against Street since 2012.

So long as he can continue to pepper the corners with elite precision, there’s no reason to think he won’t produce at an All-Star level. Hitters aren’t going to suddenly develop the ability to hit bad pitches well, and they can’t force Street to throw a pitch down the middle.

 

Reliever Roulette

For the Angels front office, the Street extension likely marks the final move in what’s been a stretch of extreme bullpen restructuring for the organization. In the past 10 months, Jerry Dipoto has traded for seven relief pitchers and traded away five others, leaving literally one guy in the ‘pen, Cory Rasmus, who was with the team even two seasons ago.

While building a bullpen is probably one of those things that’s never truly finished, the Halos now have the foundation they need to move on to more pressing matters. All the main cogs of the bullpen are either under contract or team-controlled through at least 2016, and the next wave of talented arms (Cam Bedrosian, Trevor Gott, Nate Hyatt, etc.) are not too far off should injuries and/or small-sample madness take hold.

The bullpen will forever be fickle mistress, but having someone as reliable Street at the top of the pyramid should go a long way toward preventing the bLOLpen catastrophes of 2012 and 2013.

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