Hector Santiago turned in another solid performance Sunday, holding the Red Sox offense to three runs in 6⅔ innings of work. The outing was Santiago’s fourth consecutive quality start and his sixth overall in nine tries. The southpaw has now allowed three runs or fewer in eight of his nine starts on the year, and owns a staff-best 2.47 ERA as a result.
As I see it, there are two ways to look at Santiago’s early success: Either something’s clicked and he’s now one of the better pitchers in the American League, or he’s pitching over his head and it’s only a matter of time before he falls back to earth. So which is it?
Well, there are arguments to be made on both sides. Santiago’s walk rate (9.5%) and strikeout rate (21.6%) are right in line with his career norms as a starter, and he’s still just as extreme a flyball pitcher as ever. However, he is throwing more strikes overall — up to an MLB-average 63.9% — and his cutter is suddenly a legitimate weapon, getting 37.33% whiffs per swing. If he’s able to hold those numbers steady for the rest of the year, and perhaps figure out what the heck it is that makes him so much more hittable with two outs, there seems to be a pretty good chance he’ll continue to be an above-average starting pitcher most nights.
Unless he’s not. There are two numbers we haven’t considered yet, and they may hold the key to why Santiago’s been able to keep runs off the board this year while walking a batter nearly every other inning. The first is his BABIP-against (.262), which is currently 20 points below his career norm, and the second is his 85.8% LOB%, which is more than 15 percentage points better than league average for starting pitchers. Much as he may want, Santiago has little to no control over either of these numbers, meaning one or both could come crashing down at any time. This is why his earned run average looks all nice and shiny while his fielding independent pitching (FIP) sits at a much less impressive 4.05.
When all is said and done, his ERA will likely end up much closer to his FIP than it is now. That doesn’t mean he’ll tumble all the way to a 4.05 ERA — flyball pitchers like Santiago and Jered Weaver are notorious for “outperforming” their FIPs — but he’s probably not going to stay under 3.00 either. The Angels front office knows this, I’m sure, it’s just a matter of what, if anything, they want to do about it.
As Scott noted last week, Santiago is one of the strongest trade assets in the Angels organization: He’s relatively young, relatively cheap, and has a solid MLB résumé, a clean injury history, and two-plus years of team control remaining. Meanwhile, the Angels have a dire need for help on offense. Like, it’s-unbelievable-how-bad-we-are-for-the-love-of-god-someone-save-us dire.
All of which brings me to this: So long as Santiago’s pitching like a staff ace, why not drop his name on the trade market and see what happens? His value will probably never be higher, so what’s to lose?
A pitcher, Nathan. We would lose a starting pitcher.
Well, yeah. But look at it this way: At some point this season — *cough* in June *cough* — Andrew Heaney will join the rotation, giving the team three righties and three southpaws (plus Jose Alvarez) to choose from. Next year Tyler Skaggs will return and Sean Newcomb will potentially push his way into the conversation at some point , making it five lefty starters with a legitimate chance at a rotation spot (plus Alvarez, Nate Smith, and Tyler DeLoach). I suppose it’s possible for a team to field an all-lefty rotation, but it’s certainly not probable, especially with Weaver and Matt Shoemaker around.
At least one of those lefties is gonna have to go, and it’s not going to be Heaney, Skaggs, or Newcomb. The best-case scenario would naturally be to part ways with C.J. Wilson, but his contract and start-to-start volatility make that highly unlikely. Unless the Halos want to take on another albatross contract like Ryan Howard‘s, there’s little chance Wilson will find any takers. This leaves us with Santiago, who is a useful piece to have for the time being, but who once Heaney is called up and settles in suddenly looks rather expendable. At one point in time Santiago could have simply been stored in the bullpen for a rainy day, but now he’s even been crowded out of his that role by Jose Alvarez and Cesar Ramos. Sure, Alvarez could probably be optioned to the minors without much fuss, but would the value Santiago brings by throwing an inning here and there out of the ‘pen outweigh the acquisition of someone who might jumpstart the team’s lifeless offense?
I hear the Dodgers have bats to spare and are in need of starting pitching. Just sayin’.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
