In a way, the Padres and Angels are in much the same boat. Both clubs entered the 2015 season with lofty expectations, albeit for two separate reasons (an outstanding 2014 for the Angels and a splashy offseason for San Diego), but have fluttered out of the gate, and now sit just below .500 as we near the conclusion of the season’s second month. So, one could have deemed this matchup as indicative of the paths these two teams will take over the remainder of the season. That wouldn’t be an optimistic assumption for the Angels.
After falling twice to the Padres, the Angels have now failed to come out as victors in three consecutive series. Despite three generally strong pitching performances from Jered Weaver, Matt Shoemaker, and Garrett Richards (Richards did struggle some) and a bevy of hits from the offense, the Angels were unable to hold things together, with some late game heroics being the only thing that kept them from being swept.
Boxscore Breakdowns:
Game 1: Angels 4, Padres 3 (in 10) | Game 2: Padres 4, Angels 0 | Game 3: Padres 5, Angels 4
Series Takeaways:
1) Is Jered Weaver “back?”
It’s no secret that Weaver is well past his heyday and has been on the decline for a number of years now. His FIP, ERA+, and average fastball velocity have all dipped in each of the past five seasons, with his fastball currently averaging 85.0 MPH; the fourth slowest mark among qualified starters (interestingly, the Blue Jays employ the owners of the two slowest fastballs: Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey).
Weaver’s struggles to open the season have been well-noted, with some proclaiming the end of Weaver’s days as a serviceable big league starter. However, Weaver has quietly turned his season around, throwing 6.2 quality innings against the Padres on Memorial Day, allowing seven baserunners and striking out seven. Weaver likely would have allowed zero runs had it not been for Mike Scioscia‘s questionable decision to remove Weaver with 104 pitches and two outs in the seventh in favor of Jose Alvarez.
Over his past four starts, Weaver has been just as excellent as he was atrocious to start the year. In 30 innings, he has posted a 1.50 ERA with a 4:1 K/BB ratio, while allowing opposing batters to hit just .179/.216/.226.
Looking at his cumulative numbers (4.06/4.38/93 ERA/FIP/ERA+), Weaver has clearly had a rough season, but if he can continue to trend upwards, the Angels would undoubtedly be quite happy with a productive 1-2-3-4 of Richards, Weaver, C.J. Wilson, and Hector Santiago.
2) Where, oh where has the offense gone?
The Halos’ offense was dynamic last season, leading the way to a 98-win rampage of the American League. All of the nine primary starting position players had an above-average OPS when adjusted for park factors, and the team’s 773 runs scored led the majors. The club also hit .259/.322/.406 as a unit, good for a second-place 110 wRC+, and their .321 wOBA was seventh.
This year, things couldn’t be more different. As of this writing, the Angels sit in 26th place per wRC+, 27th per runs scored, and last per wOBA. Just two of the club’s position players carry OPS+’s above league average (Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun).
So, how has 2014’s outstanding offense nosedived so quickly?
Well, Chris Iannetta, Erick Aybar, and C.J. Cron, all bright spots offensively for the Angels last season, have each struggled mightily. Iannetta has been especially disappointing. After posting a 122 OPS+ last season, he carries just a 48 mark this year.
Albert Pujols and David Freese have also seen their numbers decline. Both have been strictly power threats this season, offering little in the way of on-base ability. Pujols has seen his walk, line drive, and hard contact rates all decline, while his strikeout and soft contact rates have risen. This certainly hasn’t helped his .226 BABIP.
Even though he played in just 89 games last season, Josh Hamilton was still a valuable offensive piece, with a 114 OPS+. In his place, Matt Joyce has been downright awful, with a 46 OPS+ (and terrible defense).
Aside from Hamilton, the only other subtraction from last year’s squad is Howie Kendrick, who was dealt up the I-5 to the Dodgers for prized pitching prospect Andrew Heaney. While it’s way too early to determine how that deal will turn out (Heaney has pitched well in Triple-A), the Angels could surely use Kendrick right now. After hitting .293/.347/.397 (115 OPS+) last season, he is batting .298/.358/.450 (125 OPS+) this year. His replacement, Johnny Giavotella, has been quite a dropoff in terms of production.
Even Trout and Calhoun are down from their 2014 numbers, albeit the differences are slight.
It’s quite unordinary to see a unit decline so precipitously, even with two key contributors being subtracted. It really has been a worst-case scenario for the Angels this season.
3) Let’s (not) blame the bullpen
The Angels lost Tuesday’s extra-innings affair as a result of the rare Joe Smith implosion. But aside from Smith’s outing and the Jose Alvarez mistake, the Angels’ bullpen was excellent this series. And has been this season.
Overall, the staff ranks ninth in WAR and 11th in FIP. This hasn’t been an elite group, but they have been far from a burden. Smith (who also threw two shutout innings on Monday) and Huston Street haven’t exactly been the lights-out back-end duo that they were expected to be, but they have been pretty close, Tuesday’s blowup withstanding.
Fernando Salas and Cesar Ramos have been quite serviceable, and Alvarez and Vinnie Pestano have been adequate enough. Cam Bedrosian had been pitching well in the minors before his call-up. And a healthy Mike Morin could be an additional boon.
Of course, this group could be even better.
Remember Kevin Jepsen? Dealt for the struggling Matt Joyce in December, Jepsen has been fantastic down in Tampa Bay for the Rays. In 22 appearances, he has just a 1.77 ERA. Street, Smith, Salas, Ramos, and Jepsen would be one heck of a bullpen foundation.
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