Boxscore Breakdown #54: Regress – Rays 6, Angels 5

Hector Santiago, staff ace! Well, that was the claim entering the game, but we got ourselves a big heaping helping of the bad old Hector in this one. It was straight out of his 2015 playbook where he dances through the raindrops for the first five innings, but then that order rolls over for the third time and his start turns into a San Andreas-proportion disaster. We knew Santiago would regress to the mean before long, we just didn’t expect it to happen all in one inning.

Rays 6, Angels 5

Run Expectancy Rundown
[googleapps domain=”docs” dir=”spreadsheets/d/1D5rOM9vMuV8JoO4W6062ac3cg53dUCaZidwDh6Ry9kY/pubchart” query=”oid=1976391661&format=interactive” width=”623″ height=”389″ /] Johnny Giavotella had himself a fist-pumping night. He not only had the two-run homer, but set up the game-tying run (which may have been a game-winning hit had Taylor Featherston not gotten caught stealing). Mike Trout got himself going again, but we once again saw him get intentionally walked with the game on the line, which I totally understand but find immensely frustrating. What I don’t find frustrating was Matt Joyce finally trying to bunt against the shift for a base hit in the tenth inning. It didn’t work, but I actually respect the idea.

[googleapps domain=”docs” dir=”spreadsheets/d/1D5rOM9vMuV8JoO4W6062ac3cg53dUCaZidwDh6Ry9kY/pubchart” query=”oid=1154832181&format=interactive” width=”620″ height=”341″ /] It kind of sucks when the defensive replacement ends up being the offensive difference maker, doesn’t it? Know your role, Kiermaier. Homers were the problem all night as dingers by Souza and Butler were responsible for the abrupt end to Santiago’s night

Starting Pitcher Scores
[googleapps domain=”docs” dir=”spreadsheets/d/1D5rOM9vMuV8JoO4W6062ac3cg53dUCaZidwDh6Ry9kY/pubchart” query=”oid=161400381&format=interactive” width=”584″ height=”293″ /] Hey, guess whose strand rate and BABIP is suddenly starting to regress to the mean? Hi, Hector.

Bullpen Battle
[googleapps domain=”docs” dir=”spreadsheets/d/1D5rOM9vMuV8JoO4W6062ac3cg53dUCaZidwDh6Ry9kY/pubchart” query=”oid=1141913419&format=interactive” width=”620″ height=”315″ /] Frustratingly, Huston Street blew the game after the Angels got four innings of one-hit ball from the volatile group of middle relievers. That included two innings from a steadying Cam Bedrosian. He hasn’t been dominant, but at least he is looking useful finally. On the Tampa side, I was so excited to see Kevin Jepsen return in a situation where he could blow the game, which he nearly did if not for Kole Calhoun‘s TOOTBLAN. The real shame though is that the Rays had almost burnt through their entire bullpen, so if the Halos had just been able to hold on for another two or three innings, they likely would’ve won by attrition.

Game Flow
[googleapps domain=”docs” dir=”spreadsheets/d/1D5rOM9vMuV8JoO4W6062ac3cg53dUCaZidwDh6Ry9kY/pubchart” query=”oid=41272350&format=interactive” width=”619″ height=”315″ /] The Angels were SO CLOSE to making this thing a wrap when Santiago went to pieces in the sixth inning. Then they had a good shot at winning again late, but some truly awful hitting with the game on the line totally submarined them. Pro tip: feel free to swing the bat when all you need is a sac fly, David Freese.

Halo A-Hole

Regression is a real pain in the ass sometimes.