Series Preview: Angels vs. Yankees vs. Monuments

Juuuuussst when you thought the Angels finally turned a corner this season with a five-game win streak, four of those coming in a sweep against playoff regulars Detroit, the Halos dropped two in a row to the Rays. They get a pass for the first loss because Chris Archer is now a Terminator, but the second loss stung. The Angels had a 95% chance of victory in the fifth inning and a 4-0 lead with Hector Santiago, their best pitcher this year, on the mound. They eventually fell 6-5 in ten innings. And of course, there was TOOTBLANs. There’s always TOOTBLANs.

The Angels may have just finally worn down after playing 20 games in 20 days; an 11-9 record in that stretch is good as long as you don’t go back and count some of the other games they could have won (like, two or three). With the day off Thursday and another day off on Monday, weariness is no longer a valid excuse for the Angels as they hit the road this week for six games on the east coast. First up, the New York Yankees.

Game 1: Jered Weaver vs. Nathan Eovaldi
Weaver looks to continue his upward trend, but he’ll have to do it in a park that has caused him fits. In four career starts at this current incarnation of Yankee Stadium, Weaver owns an 8.17 ERA while allowing seven homers and a 1.09 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Clearly, the short porch in right field and spacious outfield in center give Weaver and his flyball tendencies trouble. It would behoove Weaver to maintain his career-high 40% ground ball rate, at least for one more start. Given that the Yankees rank third in baseball in homers, a soft-tossing Weaver that reverts back to allowing flyballs will probably see a couple leave the yard on Friday.

Captain Eovaldi is having a pretty typical Eovaldi season, save for the increased BABIP and home run rate. Such is life for a pitcher when they move from run suppressing yards in Los Angeles and Miami to a more hitter-friendly stadium. As has always been the case, Eovaldi doesn’t want for velocity, consistently touching in the mid-90s — yet, even with the big stuff Eovaldi is again posting strikeout and whiff rates that are below average for American League starters. To remedy his lack of swing-and-miss stuff, Eovaldi is utilizing his four-seam fastball about 8% less this year in favor of a splitter to induce more ground balls, which he throws 7.42% of the time, per Brooks Baseball. Eovaldi has already thrown his splitter, a pitch he threw a grand total of six times in his career before 2015, 72 times this season. Eovaldi is currently enjoying a career-best 48.2% ground ball rate, something he’ll need maintain if he wants to survive in Yankee Stadium this summer.

Game 2: Garrett Richards vs. Adam Warren
Mike Scioscia is using the off days to shuffle the Angels rotation. Saturday would have been Matt Shoemaker‘s turn, but with they day off Richards can draw in on normal rest. Shoemaker kinda sorta looks like he’s rounding into form if you squint, but he has still been the Angels’ worst starter and the #5 spot in the rotation is more befitting of him, at least for now.

Mike mentioned in his Rays preview that the Garrett Richards: Budding Ace we all saw in 2014 may have been a mirage. Monday’s start against Tampa Bay, where he threw six innings and allowed three runs, was fine but did nothing to assuage those fears. Richards has been good this year, but he’s clearly not the same pitcher that would have been an outside Cy Young contender if his knee didn’t explode. The strikeouts are down, the walks are up, and he has already allowed four home runs in 58 innings; last year he allowed five in 168-2/3 innings. He’s been good this year, but each start he doesn’t bring the 2014 dominance is disappointing in a way. Maybe a return trip to the site of his 2014 origin will “fix” Richards? The general baseball public didn’t really notice Richards until April 27 last year in New York, when he dueled Masahiro Tanaka on Sunday Night Baseball for seven innings, striking out seven Yankees and allowing two runs on three hits. Tanaka was also brilliant in the Yankee win, striking out 11 Angels, but Richards finally entered the national consciousness.

After appearing in 69 games as a reliever last year — nice — the Yankees moved Warren to the rotation and have benefited from fine #5 starter performance. Warren was knocked around early in the season, but settled in the latter half of May and has thrown four quality starts in a row, increasing his strikeouts a bit and seeing some better batted ball luck. The Angels are masters at allowing mediocre pitchers to cruise to a quality start, so don’t be surprised if Warren is effective.

Game 3: C.J. Wilson vs. Michael Pineda
Very quick rant. I’m in Hawaii this weekend (#humblebrag and such, I know), so this game will start at 7:00 am local time. Angels with my morning coffee, how neat! Except with MLB.tv, the Angels are blacked out in Hawaii because…reasons? I previously didn’t realize the tyranny of MLB’s blackout restrictions or the plight of the noble Iowan. But if you’re in Hawaii and want to watch any of the California teams, well, too bad. On some nights, a third of the games will be blacked out for you. Good way to expand the fan base, MLB. Yes, I shouldn’t be staying inside and watching sports in friggin’ Maui. You’re right.

ANYWAY, I swear Wilson didn’t pitch THAT poorly against the Rays on Tuesday. And, for what it’s worth, Wilson practically needed to give up negative runs the way Chris Archer pitched. In the first inning, Logan Forsythe hit the flukiest home run; off the bat it looked like a pop up in foul territory, but it carried just over the left field wall and somehow stayed fair. The game was essentially over, because Archer, but Wilson cruised and retired the next 12 batters. Then, the infamous C.J. inning, when in the sixth he really put the game out of reach when he helpfully loaded the bases for the Rays with a hit-by-pitch, a walk, and another walk. Two singles and the game was over. Wilson is not as hopeless as he was late last year, but his penchant for big innings still dooms the Angels chances on occasion.

After sitting out 2012 and 2013, many left Michael Pineda for dead. Sure, he might come back and contribute eventually, but his 3.3 fWAR season as a Mariner rookie in 2011 would be his ceiling. At least, from the Yankee’s perspective, Jesus Montero wasn’t doing anything for the Mariners so the trade didn’t cost them much. However, Pineda came back last year and had a 1.89 ERA in 13 starts, and this year he’s been one of the best starters in baseball. Pineda ranks in the top three among AL starters in FIP-, xFIP-, and fWAR while walking a miniscule 2.4% of batters and ranking in the top 10 in ground ball rate. We’ll see if Pineda can stay healthy for a full season, but for now he’s on the Cy Young short list. Meanwhile, Montero has ice cream sandwiches chucked at him while hanging out in the minor leagues.

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Monument Miscellany
Going to the games this weekend? Like the Thomas Jefferson Memorial, it’s best to avoid crowds and visit monuments nobody else will. Here are your three best bets:

1) Paul O’Neill — I know he was an important player in the 90s, but don’t the Yankees and their fans pride themselves on being more judicious? Any Yankee not confident in his ability to hit two homers in a game is not a True Yankee.

2) Ditto Tino Martinez. Scott Brosius anxiously waits by the telephone for word that the Yankees will honor him with a plaque.

3) Derek Jeter. Better pay your re2pect for the Captain and take a gander at his future home before swaths of people make viewing his plaque impossible.