I love sabermetrics and the way that they can be a filling for the game. Why is this happening? Here’s a number that explains why that is possibly happening. It’s a wonderful system. One of the championing ideas of sabermetrics is lineup optimization, and Sky Kalkman wrote this piece in 2009 that I still reference today in reference to lineup optimization. Sky breaks it down nicely with this closing:
Another way to look at things is to order the batting slots by the leveraged value of the out. In plain English (sort of), we want to know how costly making an out is by each lineup position, based on the base-out situations they most often find themselves in, and then weighted by how often each lineup spot comes to the plate. Here’s how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:
#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9
So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots. Distribute them so OBP is higher in the order and SLG is lower. Then place your fourth and fifth best hitters, with the #5 spot usually seeing the better hitter, unless he’s a high-homerun guy. Then place your four remaining hitters in decreasing order of overall hitting ability, with basestealers ahead of singles hitters.
Simple enough, right?
I openly admit to wanting Kole Calhoun pushed into the cleanup spot throughout most of last season, as well as the beginning part of this season. And now, Calhoun has 121 plate appearances in both the leadoff and cleanup spot in the lineup this season. So, let’s see how that is going.
Well, um, that’s not going nearly as well as I had hoped it would. And the idea has almost caused Kole’s season to go right down the pooper. His first game at cleanup came on the last day of April, an April that saw Kole post a slash line of .315/.367/.493. A torrid start by any measure, but an incredibly valuable hitter to have at the top of the lineup. But it begged the question, why wasn’t Calhoun being placed in a more prominent “run producing” spot in the lineup? He was hitting for good power and he was hitting often, it makes sense that you would want that bat lower down the lineup with a chance to push across runs.
That is, of course, until he tanked in that role. The last time Kole hit leadoff was on May 17, and when that game concluded, his slash line sat at a healthy .302/.359/.434. Since then, he has been the team’s primary cleanup hitter, hitting in the fourth spot in the lineup in all games except for two starts in the five-spot, one start in the six-spot and last night in the two-hole. His slash line in that time has dropped to .268/.323/.391 thanks to his .225/.275/.309 slash line over the last four weeks.
Last night saw Kole Calhoun get his first crack at the second spot in the lineup, and, I don’t hate the idea. I am almost positive that it wasn’t so much Calhoun’s lineup placement that led to him being the solid major league hitter that he has become. But more importantly, it was probably the person residing in the spot behind Kole that has helped him. Of course, I’m talking about Mike Trout.
Pitchers are more willing to attack Kole and not expand the zone too much when Trout is waiting in the on deck circle. Better to take your chances and hope Calhoun makes an out than possibly give him a free pass and have someone on base with Trout coming up. Without Trout behind Kole, pitchers are getting Kole to hit their pitches, and are getting Kole to hit into the shift against him. Calhoun has tried to beat the shift this season, going to the opposite field 26% percent of the time, five points above last season, probably sapping his power in the meantime.
Kole Calhoun is that interesting player who is good at everything, but not great at anything. And in this Angels lineup, Mike Trout is his Sucellus. Hitting him fourth, on it’s face, made sense. It made a lot of sense. But, after more than 100 plate appearances, it is time to pull the cord on that endeavor. Mike Trout doesn’t really need anyone (although a healthy and productive Albert Pujols isn’t hurting), but it seems as though Kole Calhoun does need Mike Trout and the Angels absolutely need a productive Kole Calhoun. Because, and let’s face it, there isn’t a whole of hitting going on anywhere else in the lineup.
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