The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are going through a bit of an offensive dry spell this season. The team currently ranks 22nd in baseball in runs scored, 22nd in OPS, 22nd in wOBA (Weighted On Base Average), 23rd in OBP, and 16th in wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus). With all the shuffling the lineup has gone through lately, is there a viable solution ahead or are the Angels just stuck in this quandary for the rest of the year?
Let’s preface this entire piece with averages. The baseline wOBA that can be classified as “average” is .320. That means if you have a .320 wOBA, then you’re performing as a league average hitter that season. In the wRC+ realm, the league average hitter mark is 100. That one’s simple to understand. With those averages stated, can you name how many current Angels hitters are at or above the league average hitter mark in both categories (minimum 50 plate appearances)? Take your time. The answer won’t surprise you, though. *puts on “The Wrestler” by Bruce Springsteen.* Done guessing? It’s two. A measly two hitters. And, not shockingly, those hitters are Mike Trout and Albert Pujols.
That means that on any given day (or night) of baseball, the Angels are trotting out a lineup of two massively better-than-league-average hitters and seven others who are below-average hitters. Not exactly a great recipe for success this day in age. Runs win games. The Angels aren’t scoring nearly enough of them to offset whatever good pitching they’ve gotten that day. Anytime this is the case, managers will attempt to juggle and flip guys in the lineup in order to get them “hot” or just find some semblance of offense. This is exactly what Angels manager Mike Scioscia has done. It’s hard to blame him entirely but change isn’t always good.
With the way the modern era of baseball is played and less of a spotlight towards “small ball”, it would behoove the Angels and their manager to throw out a consistent lineup on a daily basis. At least in construction form. There is a good lineup structure out there for the Angels but it might take too much forward thinking for Scioscia to actually implement. Especially when only five hitters on the team rank above the “Poor” category in wOBA (.300) and eight rank below the “Awful” category (sub-.290) among the 13 players with at least 50 plate appearances. With that said, let’s get into what the lineup should theoretically look like.
Leadoff Hitter
One of the common baseball ideas has been that the leadoff hitter has to be someone that can use their speed to get on base and make life a living hell on opposing pitchers. He’s supposed to be the “table setter” and the guy who will help hitters behind him see an increased number of fastballs if he’s on base because the pitcher (and catcher) have to worry about him running. This day in age, on-base percentage is the big deal. The Angels only have five hitters above the “Poor” category in wOBA, so one of them has to be the guy for the job. You’re not going to have your best hitter do it — so that rules out Mike Trout — and you’re not going to have your best power threat do it — so that rules out Albert Pujols.
In theory, you would like your leadoff hitter to be one of the three best hitters on your team but the one who doesn’t hit home runs. You want him to get on base more often than most everyone else in order to really help the guys behind him. If you go off of on-base percentage (OBP), the third best hitter on the Angels is Johnny Giavotella. If you go off of wOBA and wRC+, it’s David Freese. Let’s assume here that you want Freese a tad lower in the lineup for run production. And, also, because Giavotella swings at far less pitches out of the zone and has the third lowest swinging strike rate on the team. Giavotella also possesses the third best line drive rate. He makes sense as a leadoff hitter considering who would be hitting behind him.
Two Spot
It used to be that you’d put a bat control guy here. Essentially, a guy who could move the leadoff guy into scoring position by just knocking the ball to the right side or bunting him over. Not this day in age and not with two massively capable hitters on the Angels. According to “The Book”, the number two hitter should be a better than the guy you put directly behind him. He also needs to be a high-OBP player and one of your three best hitters. This is where Mike Trout enters. Because of Trout’s all-around ability at the plate, having him hit second actually reverts back to maximizing his value. As the three hitter, he comes up to hit with no one on and two outs quite often.
While Trout is OPS’ing 1.117 out of the three spot this year, it doesn’t matter as much since guys ahead of him aren’t doing anything. Trout only has 3 RBI since moving into the three spot ten games ago. By putting Trout back into the two spot, Scioscia and the Angels would be capitalizing on the already monumental value that the superstar brings to the team. One spot, while it seems insignificant, can make all the difference in the world. Especially when realizing that Trout has come to bat 25 times with two outs in the three spot already. 15 of those 25 have come with no one on. He came to bat in similar situations 15 percent less often when in the two spot. Trout goes here.
Number Three Hitter
This is the real interesting one. Conventional wisdom leads you to believe that one of your two best hitters should go here since he’s one of the run production guys; and it’s usually the guy that’s your best average hitter. If the Angels were to stick with conventional wisdom, this would still be Mike Trout in this spot and the Angels would be living with him as their number three hitter for the foreseeable future. However, according to “The Book”, the number three hitter comes up to bat with fewer runners on base than the two guys behind him. Why waste this spot on a guy who is a run producer if runners aren’t on base? Instead, you can put in one of your five best hitters but not one of your three best.
In this instance, this task falls on the shoulders of Kole Calhoun. In some ways, this makes sense from a lefty-righty standpoint as it does a real baseball standpoint. Putting Calhoun here breaks up the right-handed heavy Angels lineup and allows a lefty to get in on the action. But Calhoun has value here. He’s second on the team in line drive rate behind Trout, is fourth in wOBA, and fourth in wRC+. You can get away with Calhoun here simply because he has his moments and can drive the ball, which would allow him to get on base for the two guys behind him. Some would argue that Calhoun should bat leadoff over Giavotella, but Calhoun in the three spot makes the Angels versatile. It also allows Trout to steal more bases which, in turn, allows Calhoun to see more fastballs. Especially since he’d have Trout on base and Pujols on deck.
Cleanup Hitter
Welcome to the power spot, or so you’d think. This spot was reserved for the guys who could mash the ball a mile but you didn’t care about their average. Essentially, think the Adam Dunn types. Or, in the future, Joey Gallo. The reason I mention Dunn is because 40.2 percent of his career plate appearances came in this spot. It’s the highest of any spot he batted in. Anyways, your cleanup hitter is just as important as your number two hitter but with a little more thump if possible. The number two hitter comes up to bat more often than the number four guy so they’re relatively even in terms of value. Since we went with Trout in the two spot, we go with Albert Pujols here.
While Albert Pujols recently made the switch to this spot in the actual Angels lineup, this is the spot he should have been hitting in all along. When you combine the power, low strikeout rate, and performance that he’s had thus far this season, it makes sense why Pujols would go here. It’s the most no-brainer lock of the lineup after Trout batting second. Pujols has been the second best hitter on the Angels this season and their top run producer. Having the Giavotella-Trout-Calhoun triumvirate batting above him would give him even more opportunities to knock runners in.
Five Hole Hitter
Four of the five best hitters for the Angels have been added into the lineup already. We only have one guy to go in that top five before hitting a massive gulf and having to patch the rest of the lineup with below-average hitters that you pray can do the job. “The Book” says that the number five hitter is just as valuable as the number three hitter but perhaps even more so when factoring in home runs. That’s exactly what’s going on here with picking David Freese. There’s a possibility that you could flip-flop Freese and Calhoun and still make the lineup work, but it seems better off having Calhoun up there and Freese here as another run producer.
While a .700 or so OPS out of the five spot guy isn’t anything great, the fact Freese is third on the team in wOBA and wRC+ is a big deal. And, even though he’s not hitting particularly well, he still has a higher OPS than Calhoun does and slugs the ball over the fence more. Freese makes sense in the five spot as another run producer even if he isn’t the run producer we’d all hope he would be. You have to patch holes sometimes and Freese is the best option in this spot above anyone else left for the Angels to plug in here. This caps off the top five hitters on the team and gives you a Giavotella-Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Freese start to the lineup, which isn’t that bad.
Six Through Nine
This is where things get sort of simple. “The Book” agrees with the general philosophy that you just slot guys in based on decreasing talent and hitting ability, but it does offer an alternative which is to put somewhat of a speedy guy in the sixth spot who can get ahead of raw singles hitters below him. In that instance, we go with Erick Aybar as the sixth hitter since he can, sometimes, steal a base and also he is the sixth best hitter on the team according to wOBA and wRC+. After him, we go with Carlos Perez in the seventh spot. Perez is the seventh best hitter on the team and provides some hitting ability behind Aybar.
The final two spots are really just a who’s who of who cares. In this case, we’ll go with Efren Navarro in the eighth spot and a platoon between Matt Joyce (against right-handers) and Chris Iannetta (against left-handers) in the ninth spot while also acting as the DH for the day. Having Iannetta and Perez in the lineup together isn’t all bad since you can always give one the day off as the DH and let the other catch without ever flipping their spots in the order; especially if facing a left-handed pitcher. Neither is a world beater but Perez has been better than Iannetta this year so having him in there every day makes some sense.
Conclusion
So, there you have it. The Angels are stuck in a bit of a pickle here since they only have two capable hitters that fit well above the above-average line and a bunch of guys way back in the rear view mirror. The Angels, and Mike Scioscia, have to get creative with the lineup a little bit. I just don’t agree with batting guys like Efren Navarro and Erick Aybar in the leadoff spot. It goes against the new age style of play. Aybar isn’t as fast as he used to be so using him as a leadoff hitter because of his speed is weird. And he doesn’t take nearly enough pitches to be effective for other guys there. While Giavotella only sees an average of 0.22 pitches per plate appearance more than Aybar, his hitting profile is far better than Erick’s right now.
I’m not saying this newfangled lineup will win the Angels the World Series or even the division. It’s a mere philosophy change from what Mike Scioscia is doing right now. Rather than jumbling guys around Trout and Pujols in an effort to find a solution, use this for a little while and see if guys just start hitting. The Angels offense is a far cry from where it was last season but you have to believe they’ll start hitting as a collective unit soon rather than just a guy here and a guy there. Patience is always the key in situations like this. That or a trade might unlock the potential of this team.
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