After opening the unofficial second half of the season with six straight wins, it was fair to assume the Angels had avoided their annual face plant immediately after the All-Star break. Ah, but how wrong we were. The Angels have now dropped six out of seven contests — four of those losses coming in games which they led at one point — to turn their once two-game division lead into a two-game division deficit. After avoiding a series loss of any kind since Father’s Day weekend, the Angels have now dropped two series in a row. I want to hop in a time machine to last week and just live in that head space of eternal Angels optimism forever.
Things don’t get easier for the Halos this weekend as they head to Los Angeles for a three-game set against the Dodgers and their duo of aces. I’d like to say I have faith the Angels can go to Chavez Ravine and take a series against one of the National League’s best clubs, but with matchups against Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke looming, I’m just crossing my fingers they salvage one game and don’t fall much farther behind Houston.
Game 1: Hector Santiago vs. Clayton Kershaw
Saying this is a matchup of All-Star left-handers is technically correct, but saying McDonald’s and In-N-Out both serve cheeseburgers is also technically correct. Kershaw and Santiago play different sports.
The strand rate gods were finally angry with Santiago in his last outing, a 7-6 loss to Texas which the Angels led 4-1 at one point. Rough starts happen for every pitcher, so it’s not fair to lambast Santiago for the performance considering that prior to last Saturday he hadn’t allowed more than one run in a start since June 17 at Arizona. Still, it is concerning that he has only lasted five innings in back-to-back starts and for the whole season he has been overly reliant and getting lucky with men on base.
Unfortunately for Santiago, his margin for error Friday night is essentially zilch. You know Kershaw. Best pitcher in baseball, etc. Kershaw hasn’t allowed a run in 29 innings, so for the Angels to realistically win this game they either need Santiago to pitch one of the best games of his life or win the lottery and catch Kershaw on one of his rare off nights. An off night for Kershaw meaning he allows, like, three runs.
The Angels are going to lose this game; don’t torture yourself. It’s Friday night. Binge Orange is the New Black. Grab some beers with friends. Read a book. If you’re one to get frustrated watching games — like me! — just avoid this game all together. Unless you want to hear Vin Scully call an Angel game. Which is a pretty damn good reason to watch, come to think of it.
Game 2: Andrew Heaney vs. Zack Greinke
If a “bad” Heaney start is going to be like his last start — two runs, four strikeouts, and one walk in six innings — the Angels have a hell of a pitcher on their hands, one the Dodgers probably wish they held onto. This game could be Heaney’s toughest challenge yet, a road game against a Dodger offense that has posted a 111 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this year, tied with the Rays (?!) for third best in baseball. Like Santiago, he will have to be close to perfect considering Greinke will toe the slab for the Dodgers.
We have the Mets to thank for ending Greinke’s scoreless streak last weekend, leaving him 13-1/3 innings short of equaling Orel Hershiser‘s record of 59 consecutive scoreless innings. Had Greinke pitched deep into that game in New York without allowing any runs, he could have broken the record in his start against the Angels on Saturday. But, the Mets saved the Angels from that potential embarrassment, so now they only have to face the embarrassment of facing one of the best pitchers in baseball, a guy they chose Josh Hamilton over. Greinke has been excellent this year, but he probably hasn’t been THAT much better than his typical self the last several years.
When you have a 1.37 ERA as a starter chances are you’re benefiting from some luck. Greinke is outperforming his FIP (2.63) and xFIP (3.19) by healthy margins; usually, his ERA more or less pretty close to FIP and xFIP. Greinke is also posting a career-best BABIP and strand rate, and his home run to fly ball ratio is his best since his immortal 2009 season (although, pitching in Dodger Stadium will help that quite a bit). To Greinke’s credit, though, he is also allowing the best soft-contact rate of his career at 23.2%, the fifth highest rate in baseball. His hard-contact rate is his lowest since his 2004 rookie season, too. He is likely getting a bit lucky, but he can also thank a new approach in which he has attacked the outside corner more often.
Game 3 – C.J. Wilson vs. Mat Latos
Psssst, Wilson hasn’t been very good for a couple months. He has had good starts, sure, but even when he isn’t giving up gobs of runs he’s still dancing around trouble throughout games, the threat of a meltdown always near. A few weeks ago I scoffed at the “Wilson for Ethier” rumors, but now I wish that had happened just so I wouldn’t have to watch him pitch ever again. Wilson allowed a .257 wOBA in April and .294 in May, giving Angel fans all those warm fuzzies that he had again turned into a usable starter after pitching like Charlie Brown for much of last season. But in June, that rose .327 and in July it was .320; the MLB average wOBA for batters is .311. Consider, also, that wOBA isn’t park-adjusted and Wilson has the luxury of playing in a friendly pitcher’s park for the bulk of his starts. July also saw Wilson’s season-worst strikeout rate and a walk rate that ballooned to 10.8%. Wilson is another bad start or two from everyone wondering if he should be the one that Jered Weaver replaces in the rotation. Matt Shoemaker has done his part to keep a rotation job, posting a 2.61 ERA his last ten starts. Wilson has bullpen experience and could help a thin Angels relief corp in the stretch run. 2009 is a long time ago — the year the original The Hangover came out! — but Wilson threw 73-2/3 innings in relief and was worth 1.7 fWAR for the Rangers. There’s no guarantee Wilson would be a good reliever, but there’s no guarantee he can be consistent starter, either. He would be a wildly overpaid reliever, but he is already a sunk cost and having him hypothetically excel out of the bullpen is preferential to him being an automatic loss in the rotation.
Nothing official on who will start for Dodgers on Sunday, but it will probably be newly acquired Mat Latos. Latos struggled early in the season with the Marlins before hitting the disabled list in late May. Since being activated, though, he has allowed only 15 runs in 45-2/3 innings with a nearly five-to-one strikeout-to-walk rate. Zach Lee was previously schedule to start this game for the Dodgers, which could have been a grand ol’ time for the Angels. In his big league debut last week, Lee allowed seven runs on 11 hits in 4-2/3 innings. Alas, Latos is an actual Major League-caliber pitcher, and a good one. Just one of those weeks for the Angels.
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