I’ve already written my eulogy for the Angels’ 2015 season, so it’s no secret I lack any grand hopes for this home stand. I will admit, though, that I technically buried the team alive. They didn’t exactly show great resolve during their make-or-break road trip, going 4–5 against allegedly lesser competition, but they’re still just one sweep away from being right back in this thing.
The Halos thoroughly dismantled a free-falling Rangers team at the beginning of July, outscoring Texas 33–8 in a three-game sweep, only to meet a very different iteration of that team at the end of the month and lose two of three. That version of Texas went on to go 23–15 over its next 35 games, and is now the Wild Card-holding team that comes strutting into Anaheim this weekend.
As fantastic as Shin-Soo Choo (.939 OPS), Rougned Odor (.924) and a few others—oh hey there, Mike Napoli—have been in the second half, this is still a team that’s been outscored on the year and is currently besting its expected win total by six wins. If ever there was a time to pray to the regression gods, this is it.
The odds certainly aren’t in the Angels’ favor this weekend, but the opportunity is there.
Game 1: Garrett Richards vs. Martin Perez
Maybe tonight’s the night Garrett Richards puts that goop back on the brim of his hat and rediscovers the bite he had on his pitches last season. Gotta dream that impossible dream, man…
Goop or not, Richards was strong in his last trip to the mound. He held Cleveland to three runs in seven innings of work, retiring 13 of the final 14 batters he faced—seven by punchout. Perhaps the biggest positive from the night was the zero free passes he allowed. He’s now been walk-free in two of his last three starts, the only times all year he’s managed that. Texas isn’t all that much better with plate discipline than the Angels, but making sure they don’t get any easy baserunners is key given how quickly the Halos offense can disappear and how lost the defense has looked lately.
Martin Perez is pitching a lot like a pitcher who’s still feeling his way back into a groove following Tommy John surgery. The velocity is mostly there, and he doesn’t seem to be on any pitch limit, but his ability to miss bats has taken a hit thus far. He’s struck just 13.2% of batters, which is better than Jered Weaver but still stuck between Shane Greene and Jerome Williams, who are not great company. Perez was never a high-K guy before going under the knife—career 6.1 K/9—but batters still seem to be making a lot more contact this year, and hard contact at that. He remains a ground-ball fiend (60%), which helps keep his home-run rate low, but that doesn’t help much in the ERA department when there’s also a .340 BABIP for which to account.
Game 2: Jered Weaver vs. Derek Holland
Jered Weaver has always been a far better pitcher at the Big A than anywhere else. Despite a nearly equal number of innings (~900) home and away over his career, both his ERA (2.68) and FIP (3.25) are more than a full run better in Anaheim than on the road, not to mention 100 more strikeouts and 57 fewer walks. Some attribute this to the fortuitous location of the centerfield rockpile in relation to Weaver’s release point, others to the combination of the nightly marine layer with a fly-ball pitcher in a fly-ball-friendly park. Whatever the reason may be, it seems pretty clear that opportunities to pitch at home are Weaver’s only saving grace at this point.
The right-hander’s home/road ERA split this season is 3.02 to 6.24; he’s solid at home, wholly untenable on the road. I doubt Weaver or the Angels would ever go for it, but it seems pretty clear that their best chance of remaining competitive night in and night out is to make sure he starts as few games as possible away from Orange County. Right now, the rotation’s set up to give him three more starts at home (including Saturday) and three on the road—in Seattle, Houston, and Texas. Safeco Field is probably fine, even though he has a career 4.57 ERA there, but Houston and Texas are serious bad news. If the Halos discover some hip tightness after his Seattle start, though, they could push a start back a few days and give him his final two starts at home, skipping the final series against the Rangers entirely. It’s one fewer start overall, sure, but it absolutely gives Weaver the best chance to succeed. And isn’t that what it all comes down to as a manager/coach? Putting your players in a position to achieve their best?
But I’m getting ahead of myself… that scenario, of course, all hinges on the season not being over after this weekend. Weaver still has to do his job on Saturday. He hasn’t faced Texas yet this season, so it should be interesting to see how they fare against the slow stuff.
Oh right, Derek Holland is pitching too. Holland’s missed most of the season with a shoulder injury, but hasn’t shown any signs of residual wear and tear since returning to the rotation three weeks ago. The southpaw is not only sporting an amazing haircut, but also a pretty snappy five-pitch mix. He tossed a three-hit shutout in Arlington his last time out.
Game 3: Colby Lewis vs. Hector Santiago
This one has the all makings of a bullpen game, so of course they’ll each go seven shutout innings.
Colby Lewis has been a serviceable starter for the Rangers this season, but dude gives up gopher balls like nobody’s business and always seems to bring out his worst for the Angels. Lewis owns a 5.91 ERA vs the Halos, going all the way back to 2002, including an 8.65 ERA over eight starts the past two seasons. The veteran actually fared well in Anaheim his last time out, surrendering just two runs in 7.2 IP, but history is not on his side in terms of a repeat performance.
Meanwhile, Hector Santiago has gone full pumpkin and is now on the brink of going into a full-on 2014 C.J. Wilson second-half reenactment, which I strongly wouldn’t recommend. His transformation over the last month-plus has been incredibly difficult to watch, and it’s to the point now where you actually can see Mike Scioscia’s patience thinning with each pitch. Santiago isn’t going to be sent to Triple-A now that rosters have expanded, but he might get the indefinite boot to the bullpen if he can’t make it through the fifth inning for the fourth straight start.
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