10 words or fewer: May be past the injuries, figured out AA.
Position: SP | Age (2016): 24
Throws: R | Bats: R
Height: 6’3″ | Weight: 200
2015 Rank: 11
Fastball – B. McGowin settled on what appears to be a cut fastball and traditional four-seamer in AA this year. The cut fastball creates all sorts of movement in on the hands of a LHB (cuts away from a RHB), and hovers around 91-92. I watched him use the four-seamer in on the hands with some success this past year, and the velo topped out around 94. He seems to be deploying both more effectively this year, vs last year when he fell in love with the cut fastball and over-used it.
Off-Speed Pitches – B. McGowin came prepackaged with a “plus” slider from the college ranks, and the same has held true as he’s climbed his way into the upper minors. The change-up always appeared to be nothing more than a “show me” pitch, but McGowin has found a way to deploy it low and in the strike zone, which can only enhance it’s effectiveness. The slider grades out as an A, the change-up a C (average offering), the end result is a B.
Control – B+. McGowin’s problems have never been keeping the ball in the strike zone. He’s the type of pitcher coaches love, as he can deploy all four of his offerings in the strike zone frequently. While this does cut down on the amount of swing and misses he’s capable of, it makes McGowin a much more refined, effective starter. It was once believed he’d fare better in the bullpen, but because of his control and stamina, a future as a starter appears just as likely.
Command – B. Once he had hitters down two strikes, McGowin frequently struggled to put hitters away, despite such an effective breaking ball. The reason was, he was trying to live outside the strike zone when ahead in the count. It’s a smart move, seeing as there’s less risk of pitches being hit as hard, but pitchers that find success in that arena must have the ability to live on the fringes. McGowin will get there, if he hasn’t already.
Mechanics – C. McGowin’s mechanics have changed a little since being drafted. While he used to deploy the “inverted w” (both elbows bent, glove and ball hand pointed downward) that we’ve seen common in pitchers like Strasburg and C.J. Wilson, McGowin’s moved away from that and settled on a release that offes more deception. The newest delivery more resembles Garrett Richards, as he doesn’t stand as tall, and pitches more across his body, though not as much as someone like Weaver. This can make McGowin a nightmare for RHB, but also open things up so that lefties can pick up on his pitchers earlier. The high leg kick, balance and athleticism are all big pointers that indicate McGowin should remain a starter.
Performance – C. T’was a tale of two seasons for McGowin. He entered 2015 with questions about the health of his elbow, as well as whether or not he could hack it as a starter in the high minors. By the all-star break, I would’ve said those questions were founded in truth (an ERA in the mid fives). McGowin was being knocked around. But post all-star break he righted the ship and closed out the final three months of the season with a 3.29 ERA. The Angels may either use this as justification for a promotion to AAA or for reason to keep him in AA to prove the second half adjustments can stick. It should be noted that the Texas League is a bit friendlier toward the hitters these days, with the one glaring exception being Dickey Stephens park, the Angels affiliate in Little Rock. McGowin has a 2.96 ERA at home vs. a 6.13 ERA on the road.
Projection – B. There’s no reason for McGowin to move to the bullpen, as we were worried about this time last year. He pitched the full year with minimal time on the shelf and showed at times a possible future as a mid-rotation starter in the majors. When he’s going good, he’s hitting his spots with an above average fastball, very good slider and average change up.
What to expect in 2016 – I suspect McGowin may return to AA for only a brief time to shore up some things and prove he’s ready for a promotion, in a very similar fashion to Nate Smith in 2015. But I expect McGowin to struggle like most pitchers do in AAA Salt Lake, so we should take those numbers with a grain of salt.
Estimated Time of Arrival – 2017. McGowin’s come a long way, and certainly has the stuff to be a major league starter. But he’s got some tough obstacles to overcome. The first would be convincing the brass that he’s ready for promotion and successfully navigated AA (which I believe he did). Of course, that would mean heading to Salt Lake, where he’d be pitching in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the most hitter friendly league on the planet. Not appetizing when you consider the 6+ ERA he posted away from home in AA. The final obstacle would of course be the Angels pitching depth. McGowin’s battling it out with the likes of Nate Smith and Nick Tropeano for a spot in an Angels rotation that already has more candidates than spots.
What to expect in 2016 – McGowin finally put it together in the second half of last year. The first half we seemed to see him pitching tentatively after rehabbing his injury, which leads me to believe it may have been worse than let on. But in the second half, we saw more of a glimpse of what Kyle is capable of, which is strong K rates, solid ERA and a good amount of innings. I’d expect the Angels to maybe give him a start or two in AA, but I think he’ll spend the majority of the season in AAA.
Most Likely Scenario – McGowin is either going to become fully healthy and let loose as a starter, eventually emerging in the majors as a decent #4/5 starter, or he’ll switch to relief and grow into a role as a setup man. Either way, if he’s healthy, he looks like a major leaguer to me.
Grade as a Prospect – C+. McGowin’s control, slider, fastball all make it likely he’ll stick as a starter and make it to the majors. You just have to wonder, which uniform he’ll be wearing when that happens.
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