10 words or fewer: Electric arm offers plenty of intrigue as starter or reliever.
Position: SP/RP | Age (2016): 23
Throws: R | Bats: R
Height: 6’2″ | Weight: 190
2015 Rank: 10
Fastball – A. Victor Alcantara used to pump his heater up in the triple digits with regularity. He also used to walk in excess of five batter per nine innings. He’s toned things down the last couple seasons, to where now we’re seeing him sit 94-97. That’s still an “A” grade fastball, but not the “A+” he used to rock.
Off-speed Pitches – A. Alcantara not only has the bets fastball in the system, but likely the best slider as well. A large reason why they keep pumping him out there as a starter is because of the development of a change up that really isn’t bad.
Control – C-. Believe it or not, Alcantara can throws strikes, lots of them too. Every single year he’s pitched, his BB/9 has dropped, and it’s not down to 3.8 per nine innings, which is only slightly below average in comparison to the embarrassment it was before in Rookie Ball.
Command – D. It’s not there, at all. Alcantara gets away with so much because because of the quality of his pitches, not the pin point accuracy between each side of the strike zone.
Mechanics – D. Alcantara’s mechancis really aren’t that bad…..for a reliever. As a starter, I openly question if the Angels are actively trying to destroy this kid’s arm by making him starter 25+ games per season. He pitches only out of the stretch, struggles with balance, release point, arm angle and just general consistency. It’s getting better, as he’s now in the modified stretch, which is similar to what you’ll see from major leaguers like David Price and Yu Darvish. It’s possible this grade gets better if he remains in the starting role.
Performance – C. Don’t sweat the ERA. Alcantara was pitching a 90-something mile per hour fastball in an extremely hitter friendly league. He provides all the power in an environment that provides it as well. He’s doubling down, so of course the numbers will be skewed. What matter is that he’s cleaned up his mechanics a bit, is throwing more strikes, walking less batters and still striking out his fair share, and is healthy. He can check off all those. This ins’t a lost year for Alcantara, just an unfortunate circumstance is all.
Projection – A. As a starter, sure, Alcantara can be an ace. There aren’t many starters that can match his velo and off-speed pitches. And there’s a legitimate argument toward keeping him a starter. He’s like a more dynamic version of Ervin Santana. Ervin came up with only two pitches and rocked and fired his way into the middle of an MLB rotation. Alcantara has the stamina to do the same. But still, his future is considerably more likely to be found in a bullpen role. The fastball and slider are just too good. In short stints, he could again starter firing 98-101 with regularity, if he can find the strike zone, otherwise he may need to stay at the 95-96 he’s at currently in order to stay in the zone. At any rate, he looks like a closer to me.
Estimated Time of Arrival – 2017/2018. I’m guessing they’ll give Victor another go as a starter this next year before moving him to the bullpen. But once he’s moved to the pen, I can’t imagine him staying in the minors for any more than a year. He’ll likely rocket straight to the major leagues. But if by some strange turn of events he does manage to stay in a rotation, I’d slide this estimate back further toward 2019 or 2020.
What to expect in 2016 – He should get one more go-around as a starter. The Angels should probably start him back in the Cal League again, and I imagine half way through the season or so, he’ll get moved up to AA. He may begin pitching out of the bullpen though, and if that’s the case, watch out.
Most Likely Scenario – Alcantara moves into a relief role and storms the upper minor and major leagues before establishing himself as one of the premier closers in baseball.
Grade as a Prospect – C+. The numbers aren’t pretty and the future as a reliever don’t bode well for his letter grade, but anyone that’s taken the time to watch this kid in person will understand that he’s worth every bit of the “plus” we’re giving him here.
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