10 words or fewer: Non-exciting pitcher with non-exciting name produces exciting results.
Position: SP | Age (2016): 24
Throws: L | Bats: L
Height: 6’3″ | Weight: 205
2015 Rank: 14
Fastball – C-/D+. The average LHP in MLB throws a 90/91 mph fastball (92/93 for RHP), three years ago, Nate Smith was clocked throwing 87-89. Two years ago, 89-92, and last year, a combination of the two. He’d top out at 93, but when he was feeling good, Smith would live around 90/91, which is average for a LHP. But again, mixed in, there were starts here and there where Smith just didn’t have it, and would labor at 87-89. But the velocity is what has always kept Smith off most radar maps. He simply doesn’t light up the gun.
Off-speed Pitches – B+. Smith comes equipped with a “plus” changeup and an above average curveball. As I’ve come to understand, he’s begun to rely too heavily on the change up in AA and AAA and has paid the price for it at times. Of course, this doesn’t make Smith the dreaded “junk-baller”. He gets by with a decent fastball-change combo.
Control – B. Smith is an above average strike thrower. In fact, that was his predominant trait in most scouting reports coming out of college, that he pounded the strike zone. He’s suffered through small bouts of control problems in the majors, but for the most part, you’re seeing a skill here that easily translates to the major leagues.
Command – B. A main culprit behind Smith’s success is his ability to spot his pitches. He’s no Greg Maddux out there, but he’s shown enough intelligence and pinpoint accuracy in his pitching that he should be able to make it to the majors someday.
Mechanics – A. Picture-perfect mechanics. Nate Smith uses his long frame to generate a longer extension toward the plate. There’s a lot of forward momentum/movement which comes from good push-off with his legs, yet he always seems to land nice and balanced. There is little torque of his shoulder or elbow. Smith has the look of a future workhorse.
Performance – B. We expected Smith to spend a few starts in AA, not quite as many as the Angels made him endure. Then they sent him to Toronto for the Pan-Am Games, where he represented his country quite honorably. By most metrics, being the best pitcher on the international circuit for that brief tournament which resulted in a silver medal for the U.S. It should be noted that most major league organizations won’t allow any of their decent prospects to participate in this competition, so Smith was outpitching a lot of “also-rans”. Upon returning, Smith was sent to AAA, and while the results weren’t pretty, we should keep in mind, this is the PCL, a pitcher’s nightmare. When we look at his adanced statistics, Smith paints the picture of an average pitcher in most forms. Everything from % ahead, even and behind in the count, to swinging strikes and contact. You name it, Smith is at least average at it. This continued in 2015.
Projection – C+. Of course, being average at everything doesn’t mean you’re an average player. On the contrary, being average at everything frequently results in an above average player as a result of a lack of weaknesses. Smith shouldn’t be moved to the pen, his mechanics are too pretty and his stuff is just good enough t remain in the rotation. The facts that he’s young, tall and lean like a pitcher and left handed are all simply icing on the cake. Smith projects favorably into a swing-starter role, and more than likely, a 4th or 5th starter and no more. As he’s progressed through the minors, he’s lost his ability to get outs via the K and hitters are squaring him up more frequently. But if Smith makes the adjustments and uses his pitches more effectively and allows hitters to get themselves out more frequently, he should make it to the majors rather than top out in AAA.
Estimated Time of Arrival – 2017. Smith’s minor league journey has gone swimmingly thus far, but there are still a couple more refinements to be made before he’s fully ready for the show. Luckily for the Angels, they have the depth to be able to allow Smith to fully develop before promotion. I expect he’ll take his lumps in AAA before pushing his way onto the roster.
What to expect in 2016 – Expect to see Smith back in action at AAA Salt Lake. Because the Angels already have seven viable starters, I expect Smith will round out what is expected to be a rather talented AAA rotation to start the year. The numbers should get better as he spend more time there, and if they do, he positions himself nicely to push his way onto the roster by his 25th birthday.
Most Likely Scenario – Smith gets the Shoemaker treatment and switches between mop-up duty in the bullpen, emergency starts, 5th starter and also AAA. There is a small chance that the ERA’s posted in the minors somehow translate despite a lack of stuff which could slot him as a #3 or 4 starter based off the numbers, but the likeliest scenario is the former.
Grade as a Prospect – C+. He’s done everything asked of him and has been successful at every stop. He looks to be primed to spend several years in and out of the major leagues and thus, he is an above average prospect.
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