2016 Angels Preview: Matt Shoemaker

The Angels struck gold in 2014 when Matt Shoemaker, a 27-year-old rookie who wasn’t even viewed as a legitimate prospect in a weak Angels system, threw 136 innings and netted 2.1 fWAR. A strong strikeout-to-walk rate and an attack that resembled many of the best Japanese pitchers suggested Shoemaker was no fluke, either. After Garrett Richards suffered a gruesome injury in August that knocked him out for the final weeks of the season, Shoemaker was the best starter on a 98-win team and fared well in his lone playoff outing. Quite the turnaround for a pitcher that initially was pegged as an emergency starter and an innings-eater in blowouts. With a glorious beard and nicknames like Shoebacca and The Cobbler, Shoemaker looked poised to become a modest breakout star in 2015.

It didn’t happen. Shoemaker struggled all season with the long ball, allowing 24 homers—10 more than in 2014 despite a nearly identical amount of innings. Home runs were always Shoemaker’s bugaboo in the minors, allowing 25+ in Triple-A in 2012 and 2013. But that was at altitude in Salt Lake, and maybe he turned a corner after all? That was the hope after 2014, but regression attacked Shoemaker in a big way. The strikeouts and ground balls were down while the walks and fly balls were up.

What type of pitcher is Shoemaker? The 2015 version is what he was projected for prior to 2014, a long-relief guy out of the bullpen and occasional starter. But if he improves upon that a little, even if not necessarily back to his 2014 excellence, Shoemaker is a valuable commodity at the back of a rotation. With Tyler Skaggs and C.J. Wilson sidelined for Opening Day, Shoemaker will have a shot to make amends on last year’s disappointment.

Position: SP | Age (2016): 29
Throws: R | Bats: R
Height: 6’2” | Weight: 225
2015 WAR: 0.5

2015 in a Tweet

Shoe struggled with the splitter in 2015: Batters posted a .231 ISO against the pitch compared to a .064 mark in 2014.

2016 Projections

ZiPS is the only system that sees Shoemaker starting the bulk of the season. With recent news that Wilson will miss significant time, the likelihood of Shoemaker lasting the summer in the rotation is increased. None of the projections see a return to 2014 form and that’s probably fair. A portion of Shoemaker’s early success can probably be attributed to teams not having much of a book on the career minor-leaguer. Some better home run luck would be a welcome addition and might be a necessity for Shoemaker to stand out among a deep Angels slate of potential starting arms.

*PECOTA uses DRA in lieu of FIP

Pitch Usage

Shoemaker increased his diet of fastballs despite a velocity drop of nearly half a mile per hour. Though not as dramatic as the splitty, the effectiveness of his fastball also waned last season, resulting an isolated slugging 39 points higher than in 2014. The most important pitch is obviously the splitter, and even though it got hammered at times last year Shoemaker has to keep going to that well. When it’s right, it’s a ground ball and strikeout machine. When it’s not…well, bombs away.

Zone Profile

Low and away for days. That’s where Shoemaker has to live to survive. Shoemaker doesn’t have a huge platoon split—a career .310 wOBA allowed against LHH and .301 against RHH—which is likely why these charts look fairly similar. He’s comfortable attacking both sets of hitters the same way. Though, as expected, he will work off the outside corner more against left-handed batters.

Fun Fact

Matt Shoemaker was not selected at all in the 2008 draft, yet his 2.9 career fWAR is more than 18 of the first round picks that year, including recognizable names like Justin Smoak, Aaron Hicks, and Tim Beckham. Drafting is hard.

What to Watch For

It seems overly simplistic, but if Shoemaker isn’t allowing home runs at a clip in the teens he should be fine. His stuff is good enough to force batters to hit the ball into the ground or whiff entirely. And the Halo defense behind Shoemaker should be good enough to convert balls in play into outs. Homers are going to be a fact of life for The Cobbler; that’s fine, so long as he keeps them enough in check to give his team innings and a chance to win the game before the opponent blows the game open. All three projection systems forecast that Shoemaker will reduce his 1.6 homers per nine innings from last season, which is a good sign for beard fans everywhere.

A Bold Prediction

Shoemaker will throw 180 innings and not lead the staff in home runs allowed. That’ll be Jered Weaver.

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More Previews: Yunel Escobar; Kole Calhoun; Mike Trout; Albert Pujols; C.J. Cron; Daniel Nava; Carlos Pérez; Johnny Giavotella; Geovany Soto; Andrelton Simmons; Cliff Pennington; Jered Weaver; Andrew Heaney; Garrett Richards; Hector Santiago