Joe Smith was reliable as ever in 2015, no matter what his ERA might indicate. He hit 70 appearances and 63 innings for the fifth consecutive season, kept his walk and strikeout rates above his career (and the league’s) norms, and allowed fewer than a handful of home runs for the ninth straight year. If he can do that again this season, while hopefully getting some better luck on batted balls, Smith should get his wish and score a big contract on the open market next winter.
Will that contract come from the Angels? Fat chance. Will it still be fun to watch Smith mystify hitters with his sidearm delivery knowing he likely won’t be back next year? Absolutely.
Position: RP | Age (2016): 32
Bats: R | Throws: R
Height: 6’2” | Weight: 205
2015 WAR: 0.5
2015 in a Tweet
After 7 straight years with a better-than-average BABIP (.256), Smith finally fell victim to bad luck (.321) and his ERA suffered for it.
2016 Projections
[table id=178 /]PECOTA’s projections for Angels relievers so far have been… uhh… let’s say interesting. Smith’s 50th-percentile ERA projection (3.93) is worse than anything he’s ever posted in an MLB season, and his 90th-percentile ERA projection (2.93)—i.e. his best predicted outcome—is a tenth of a run worse than his career average. The same things are true for Huston Street’s PECOTA projections. I get that their advancing ages—both are 32—might be cause to predict some decline, but expecting them at best to be worse than their career norm seems a bit much.
Steamer and ZiPS are much more bullish on Smith, with both expecting at least a small improvement on his 2015 numbers. For one of the more consistent relief pitchers of the last decade—he’s the only reliever to appear in 70 games or more in each of the last five seasons—that seems like a pretty good bet.
The WAR totals for Smith are less than exciting across the board, but that’s simply going to be the case for every reliever not named Dellin Betances or Kenley Jansen. Best to just ignore them.
*PECOTA uses DRA in lieu of FIP
Pitch Usage
The chart indicates Smith has come to rely a bit more on his sinker and a bit less on his fourseam since joining the Angels, but no big changes beyond that. If we dive into the month-by-month pitch usage for 2015, there was a considerable spike in slider usage in the final month of the season—up to 40%!—but that may just be a blip.
Smith randomly threw a single change-up last summer for the first time since 2010, and he’s thrown it at least a few times this spring, so it looks like he’s thinking about reintroducing the pitch into his arsenal.
Zone Profile
Smith’s got that low-and-away corner absolutely locked in against left-handed hitters—that chart is a thing of beauty. He mostly sticks in that same corner against righties, working to jam hitters inside with his sinker, but he also likes to bury that slider in the dirt away once he gets ahead. Almost everything he throws comes in at the batter’s waist or lower, for which he probably has his sidearm delivery to thank. Hard to miss up when your arm never lifts above your shoulder and everything you throw has downward action.
Fun Fact
Joe Smith was part of the three-team, 12-player trade in December 2008 that sent J.J. Putz to the Mets, Jason Vargas, Endy Chavez, and Mike Carp to the Mariners, and Luis Valbuena to the Indians. The fun part about this fact is that the Mets traded seven players to acquire a single season of an overpaid set-up man when they already had a perfectly good one (Smith) waiting in the bullpen. LOLMets.
What to Watch For
As noted above, Smith ran into some batted-ball trouble in 2015. His .321 BABIP and 8.8 H/9 were the highest since his rookie season, but all of his other rate stats stayed more or less the same. This would seem to indicate that positive regression is in store, but maybe his slight dip in velocity—down about a mile-per-hour across the board—had a bigger impact than one might expect.
A Bold Prediction
Smith will put together yet another strong season and hit free agency on a high note, immediately pricing himself out of the Angels’ offseason plans. Thanks, Arte.
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More Previews: Yunel Escobar; Kole Calhoun; Mike Trout; Albert Pujols; C.J. Cron; Daniel Nava; Carlos Pérez; Johnny Giavotella; Geovany Soto; Andrelton Simmons; Cliff Pennington; Jered Weaver; Andrew Heaney; Garrett Richards; Hector Santiago; Matt Shoemaker; Huston Street; Nick Tropeano
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