The ten-game road trip is finally over and the Angels head back home exactly as they left it: two games under .500. The sweep in Oakland got everyone’s hopes up, then the sweep at the hands of the then 0-9 Twins left fans despondent, then the split in Chicago left everyone pretty meh. But hey, it looks like Mike Trout is back after five hits in the last two games. It was a matter of time before Trout heated up, and his struggles reminded everyone how important he is to the club. Without Trout hitting like a superstar, the Angels won’t go anywhere.
Anyway, the Angels get to play against Jerry Dipoto’s new squad for the first time since he took over as GM. Whether by Dipoto’s doing or complete happenstance, the Mariners offense looks respectable for seemingly the first time in 15 years. Red-hot Robsinson Cano is pacing an offense that ranks fourth in the AL in isolated power at .158. The Mariners are still only middle-of-the-pack in runs, but FOR YEARS Seattle has tried to be just decent with the bats, trusting that great pitching combined with a mediocre offense would be enough to sneak into the playoffs. Good news for Seattle? Kyle Seager and Adam Lind haven’t started hitting and Nelson Cruz hasn’t quite found the power stroke one would assume is coming. At the end of the year, the Mariners could have a dare-I-say above average offense. That’s as rare a thing as Haley’s Comet.
Game 1: Nick Tropeano vs. Hisashi Iwakuma
So far so good for Tropeano this season, who has allowed only one run in 10-2/3 innings. The next step in his progression would be longer outings. In his nine total starts for the Angels, dating back to last season, Tropeano has only reached the six-inning mark three times. Part of that is on Mike Scioscia. In Sunday’s game against the Twins, Tropeano was relieved after throwing only 89 pitches and the situation — two outs and a runner on first base — didn’t signal extreme danger. We know pitchers pay a tax of sorts the more times they face batters in a game, but that move felt like Scioscia over-management more than anything else. Tropeano has more than acquitted himself over the last two seasons; it’s time to take the training wheels off
The Angels had to be thrilled when Iwakuma appeared to sign with the Dodgers. The Mariners would lose a valuable starter, yes, but Iwakuma has a history of owning the Halos in particular. In 14 games against the Angels, 13 of them starts, Iwakuma has a 2.71 ERA, sub-1.00 WHIP, and 8.38 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His career K-to-BB ratio is only 4.26!!
Game 2: Hector Santiago vs. TBD
Is Santiago possibly…good? His last start was the best in his Angels tenure, and the spring afterthought is muscling his way towards the top of the rotation. Nathan theorized earlier this week that Santiago’s newfound efficiency is due to an increased focus on his fastball and changeup. A large arsenal is a nice luxury but Santiago never quite figured out how to employ it, constantly trying to throw the perfect pitch and falling behind batters rather than just attacking. The league will adjust, but at least Santiago is forcing an adjustment rather than rolling out the same ineffective plan of attack every start. We call that The C.J. Wilson.
Iwakuma was initially scheduled to start this game but was bumped up a day because Felix Hernandez was scratched from Friday’s start with an illness. The Mariners haven’t yet announced who will start this game, so let’s talk about Hernandez, because he’s the most interesting pitcher on the team and it might be him anyway.
What a strange three starts for King Felix in 2016. A 1.00 ERA with a 25.3% strikeout rate and 64.3% groundball rate signals dominance, but Hernandez has walked 16.5% of batters and benefited from an 82.6% strand rate and a .200 BABIP from his opposition. Mike Podhozer at RotoGraphs notes that all three of Hernandez’ starts this year are in the bottom five of his average fastball velocity since 2013 and that his strike percentage has plummeted to under 60% after years of consistently throwing strikes at a mid-to-upper 60s clip. This could all just be early-season noise and the King will stay the King in short notice. But Hernandez is an old 30, racking up nearly 2300 innings on his arm and making at least 30 starts every season since 2006. It wouldn’t be a shock if the regression or injury bell tolls. I’m not doubting the future Hall of Famer yet, and in recent years he’s taken the Angels’ lunch money and shoved them in a locker.
Game 3: Matt Shoemaker vs. Wade Miley
Two good starts in a row for The Cobbler but the home run ball did him in on Wednesday. At least Shoemaker gets to come home to the more comfortable confines of Angel Stadium. Unfortunately the M’s have hit the third most homers in the American League, and that’s with their home games coming at Safeco. Cano has only hit one fewer home run than the Angels, by the way.
Wade Miley has allowed a .480 BABIP. That 8.04 ERA will drop when the BABIP inevitably does, and then he’ll settle in as Wade Miley: Fine Number-Four Starter. Maybe the Angels can get some punches in before Miley enjoys the fruits of his forthcoming positive regression.
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