Potential Running Back Draft Strategy

Since 2003, the Cowboys have added a running back from the draft consistently, every 2-3 years. The Cowboys will continue that trend in 2015 when they draft a running back.

Here’s a brief refresher of running backs the Cowboys have drafted since 2003:

2004: Julius Jones, Round 2 (#43)
2005: Marion Barber III, Round 4 (#109)
2008: Felix Jones, Round 1 (#22)
2008: Tashard Choice, Round 4 (#123)
2011: DeMarco Murray, Round 3 (#71)
2013: Joseph Randle, Round 5 (#151)

The consensus for 2015 says the running back class is deep, and while this is true, it is not that deep in regards to the Cowboys type of back they covet for starter potential. We like our primary backs bigger and able to catch the ball. I wrote about my Top 4 running backs the Cowboys could target, read more here.

Basically, I’m talking about:

Jay Ajayi, Boise State, 6-0, 4.57 (MWC)

David Johnson, UNI, 6-1, 4.50 (GATE)

Javorius Allen, USC, 6-0, 4.53 (PAC 12)

Todd Gurley, Georgia, 6-1, (SEC)

My other three backs, that fit the size profile, but less utilized in the passing game are Melvin Gordon, T.J. Yeldon, and Jeremy Langford. By looking at the Cowboys visits, we know the Cowboys have interest in all of these players, except Johnson and Langford.

— So, knowing all of this, where will the Cowboys draft their running back? What is the potential strategy?

Early on in the draft process, it was thought the Cowboys could go until the 3rd round to get their next back, but that is not realistic, especially drafting towards the bottom of each round. Drafting at the bottom of each round in essence means you may need to take a player a round higher than expected.

So, drafting any running back in the 1st round is not out of the question. We know Gurley is the crown jewel, and Gordon is the consensus #2 best running back, but what if both are gone before the Cowboys draft at #27? And what if there is a “run” on RB early in the 2nd round? The Cowboys could be in trouble if they wait until the #60 pick.

Dane Brugler’s 2-round mock illustrates such a scenario, luckily the Cowboys nabbed T.J. Yeldon at #60, which is a good pick.

— Let’s go over some scenarios/strategy now.

Scenario 1:  The Cowboys want to assure they grab Gurley

The Cowboys could do a 2010 draft all over again. In 2010, the Cowboys were sitting at #27 and had to jump up to #24 to get Dez Bryant. In 2015, the Cowboys may have to follow the same strategy and move up to #23 (Detroit) or #24 (Cardinals) and give up this year’s 3rd round pick (same as 2010).

Scenario 2: The Cowboys want to assure they get Gordon

It’s quite possible Gurley goes higher that the 20s, and becomes too rich for the Cowboys liking in a trade up, so the Cowboys could use the same strategy as above and get Gordon. Personally, I do not like this idea as I am not high on Gordon in the 1st round as most are. He’ll do well behind our offensive line, but he may need more work in the passing game.

Scenario 3: Both Gurley and Gordon are gone by #27

As we get closer to the draft there’s a feeling both Gurley and Gordon will be gone before the Cowboys draft, so in this scenario, the Cowboys could trade down and pick up a late 3rd round pick or a 4th round pick. If the Cowboys trade down and want to assure they get a running back they covet, the pick could be Jay Ajayi. I know this may not be a popular scenario, but it’s one that fans should prepare for.

If the Cowboys decide to go another position in the 1st round, they will be playing with fire in the 2nd and 3rd rounds in regards to getting a starting back. The Cowboys could end up in another draft scenario where they feel compelled to trade up before the 2nd day starts and give up their 3rd round pick like last year, but probably more this year since we’re at the bottom of the round. Taking Ajayi at the end of the 1st round gives you a stud running back, and let’s you get a good corner back in the 2nd round.

Scenario 4: Wait until #60

In Brugler’s mock, many of the backs the Cowboys would covet were wiped out early in the 2nd round, but Yeldon was still on the board. Taking Yeldon would be the best case scenario, and the last back that fits the Cowboys primary back profile, unless you want to wait until the 3rd or 4th round and hope Javorius “Buck” Allen is still available. If the Cowboys don’t land any of the backs they brought to Valley Ranch, then they may be rolling the dice with McFadden and Randle for the 2015 season. We could then see the Cowboys take a smaller sized back in the 5th or 6th round.

The first two rounds are going to be interesting for Cowboys fans, and I expect some fireworks and some possible disgruntlement from some fans. For me, I feel the Cowboys are going to go RB and CB in the first two rounds, and that can be flip-flopped. If the Cowboys have a premier cornerback falling to them, that could be the guy. If their corner is gone, I could see a trade down and take Ajayi. Then in the 2nd round, the Cowboys go to work on corner back with someone like John Shaw, Eric Rowe, Quentin Rollins, or PJ Williams.

What strategy do you think the Cowboys will do to get their next running back?