The offense has been a mess for most of the month. Jered Weaver and Matt Shoemaker have been bombed more than once each. Huston Street, Daniel Nava, and Andrew Heaney hit the DL. The bullpen caught a case of blowpen-itis against an 0-9 team. And yet, if the Angels win today and tomorrow they’ll be in first place on May 1 (depending on what Seattle does, but you get the point).
I’m not sure if this April has made me more optimistic or pessimistic about the Angels’ chances this season. When Mike Trout was struggling they looked like the worst team in the American League. Yet, they survived when literally nobody on the team was hitting other than Kole Caloun and Yunel Escobar. That couldn’t possibly last. The starting lineup is thin, but they’re better than a Jeff Mathis Voltron.
It helps the Halos’ chances too that the rest of the AL West looks pretty mediocre. Houston could be a sleeping giant, but their slow start dampens their playoff odds and last year’s surprise success could have just been an early mirage in that franchise’s rebuilding plan. Texas, the other favorite, is currently in first place but that speaks more to the quality of the division more than Texas’ own good play. I was more bearish on the Rangers chances this season than most—the tl;dr summary of my preview was I didn’t think a lot of key offensive contributors from last season would be as healthy or productive this season. And, so far, I haven’t really been wrong*. Prince Fielder has a 40 wRC+. Delino DeShields has a nice 69 wRC+. Robinson Chirinos and Shin-Soo Choo are hurt, though Choo’s injury did open the door for Nomar Mazara, who is awesome but still a rookie. The Rangers lineup is being carried by Mazara, Elvis Andrus, and Adrian Beltre. That’s a rookie, a bad hitter in the midst of a hot streak, and a 37-year old with a recent injury history. That doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. So you know how bad the Angels offense has been, right? Well, their team 89 wRC+ is only 1 point worse than Texas’ 90 wRC+.
* I also said Houston could win 100 games, so let me have this.
Meanwhile, by fWAR Texas’ pitching is below replacement level. Pitching WAR is always tricky, but it is concerning when the staff’s ERA is 1.31 runs lower than its FIP. Yu Darvish’s return this summer could remedy this, but it’s possible the Rangers pitching staff is just a collection of mediocre dudes.
The AL West is for the taking. And for all my/our hand-wringing over the Angels this month and their history of crappy Aprils, the Halos have the opportunity to claim first place by Sunday. It means very little in the grand scheme of the season, but it symbolically suggests the Angels could be in the thick of the race through September.
Game 1: Hector Santiago vs. Colby Lewis
Santiago’s early season excellence has largely been attributed to an increase in efficiency, pitching deeper into games thanks to a more focused approach with his large arsenal. He’s striking out more batters, walking fewer, and, crucially, posting a 47.1% groundball rate that that blows his 33.8% career rate away. So even though Santiago is allowing home runs on 13.3% of fly balls, he’s keeping the ball on the ground more and letting his shiny new shortstop toy do work. That approach will come in handy in Arlington, a house of horrors for any flyball pitcher.
ERA-wise, Lewis has had a nice start to the season. But his 5.94 FIP suggests a crash is coming, and the Angels would like to be present for it. The Halos don’t seem to own many pitchers, but Lewis is usually the first that comes to mind. In 124⅔ innings against the Angels, Lewis owns a 6.28 ERA, his worst against any American League team; and remember, a large chunk of those innings have been in pitcher-friendly Anaheim. If the Angels bats finally awoke in the Kansas City series, Lewis could be in for a bludgeoning.*
*Yes, I realize I just jinxed the Angels.
Game 2: Matt Shoemaker vs. Derek Holland
Oh boy, this probably won’t go well. It would have been a nice bit of strateg-ery for Mike Scioscia to utilize yesterday’s day off and bump Shoemaker to a Monday start in Milwaukee, but here we are. Shoemaker has allowed five homers this season, four of them in the last two games. Even though I just spent a paragraph discussing how Texas’ offense isn’t that good, even the Braves would tattoo Shoemaker if his trend for walking batters continues. As long as Jered Weaver is fine-ish, Shoemaker will be without a rotation spot when Tyler Skaggs returns.
Like Lewis, Holland has a healthy ERA (3.13) but there are red flags to his early success, namely a 6.7% home run-to-fly ball rate despite allowing fly balls at a clip nearly 6% higher than his career rate. That doesn’t seem sustainable during the hot Texas summer.
Game 3: Garrett Richards vs. Cole Hamels
A rematch from the first week of the season. Richards got some run support against the Royals this week and earned his first win. Funny how that works. We’re still waiting for that dominant Richards start where he shoves for eight innings—every time he doesn’t, the doubt starts to creep in that he isn’t actually a top-of-the-rotation ace. 2014 was a long time ago, after all.
The Ranger starters are the kings of defying FIP and Hamels is their leader, posting an ERA about two and a half runs lower than his 5.15 FIP. Even Hamels park-adjusted FIP- is 128, and for his career his ERA- and FIP- are nearly identical. I wouldn’t worry yet if I was a Ranger fan, but this version of Cole Hamels isn’t what Jon Daniels had in mind when he sent a bushel of prospects to Philadelphia last summer.
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