UFC 268 Picks

UFC Welterweight Championship: Kamaru Usman (c) (19-1) vs. Colby Covington (16-2)

Luke Irwin: What, exactly, has Covington shown that indicates this fight will go any differently at all from their first contest? Fading Tyron Woodley? Over a year ago? No. Usman might be the best fighter in the world, and Covington hasn’t shown any indication that things will go any differently. He’ll bring lots of pressure, and Usman will be waiting for him like last time. Usman via R4 TKO.

UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship: Rose Namajunas (c) (10-4) vs. Zhang Weili (21-2)

Luke: The Strawweight triumvirate of Namajunas-Weili-and Jedrejczyk continue to exchange the belt back and forth. Neither are really capable of a boring fight, and Rose did this to Zhang last time they faced each other. Zhang has showed in her bouts with Joanna that she can hang and outstrike a much-larger opponent, but whereas Joanna will wear you down and dot you up until you fall, Rose is capable of more one-shot finishes. Zhang was so caught off-guard by Rose’s headkick, and that was her first professional knockout loss. You never know how you’re going to come back after your first KO, but most come back a little gunshy. And if that’s the case, Rose can easily use her length to outpoint her. Namajunas via UD.

Bantamweight Bout: Frankie Edgar (24-9-1) vs. Marlon Vera (17-7-1)

Luke: I just don’t trust Edgar’s chin at this weight, and without his mobility, he loses his biggest asset. Vera doesn’t have killshot power, but he can dot someone up. Vera via UD.

Lightweight Bout: Justin Gaethje (22-3) vs. Michael Chandler (22-6)

Luke: If this gets lugged into a firefight, and both men seem to think that’s how it’s going to go, Gaethje is much, much better-equipped for it. Chandler’s chin can be touched in a back-and-forth, and it’s not exactly getting better with age. Chandler via R3 TKO.

Featherweight Bout: Billy Quarantillo (16-3) vs. Shane Burgos (13-3)

Luke: LIVE DOG ALERT! Burgos tends to be weak against the takedown, and, to paraphrase Doc Holliday, that’s just Quarantillo’s game. Look for Burgos to be looking at the lights for a while this fight. Quarantillo via UD.