It’s finally here.
The Cincinnati Bearcats are making the short trip up I-71 North to Columbus this Saturday to play the Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium in front of a crowd likely to exceed 105,000.
To say this is a tall task for Cincinnati is a bit of an understatement when you consider the following: Ohio State has won 44 straight games against in-state opponents, last losing in 1921, and holds a 12-2 record against UC with both losses coming in the 1800s. The two teams last met in Columbus in 2006, where the Buckeyes won 37-7.
That being said, since that game in 2006, UC has made quite the turnaround program-wise. Since 2007 (the year Brian Kelly took over as head coach), the Bearcats are tied for ninth in college football in winning percentage at .725 (66-25), and have had five seasons of 10 or more wins and won their conference four times.
Kelly left for Notre Dame in 2010, but Butch Jones (now at Tennessee) and now Tommy Tuberville have kept the program’s national exposure high while being even more competitive in recruiting. Needless to say, the overall talent level Cincinnati has from that 2006 team to now is much higher, especially on the offensive side of the ball with quarterback Gunner Kiel and his highly-skilled bevy of receivers and backs around him.
Kiel’s early season success, albeit against Toledo and Miami (OH), has the Bearcats ranked ninth in the country in passing yards per game with 353.5 and 14th in points per game with 44.5. Kiel has completed passes to 12 different receivers, and his 10 touchdowns have been spread around to seven different players. Look for that trend to continue as Cincinnati will look for big play opportunities against an OSU pass defense that allowed 24.3 yards per completion in its loss to Virginia Tech.
The four stats I think will be critical to a Bearcats upset victory Saturday are third-down conversions, red-zone scoring, sacks and turnovers.
Ohio State’s best defense against Cincinnati’s offense is to keep its own offense on the field to control the game tempo and the clock. The more Kiel is on the field, the better for the Bearcats, so they will need to convert their third downs while getting J.T. Barrett and the Buckeyes off the field with several third down stops. UC has converted 54 percent of its third downs so far this season, but OSU has held its opponents to just a 35 percent success rate. On the flip side, the Buckeyes have only converted on 39 percent of their third downs, while the Bearcats have allowed a 50 percent conversion rate defensively.
In short, Cincinnati needs to stay on the field on offense and get off the field on defense–the latter of which has been a challenge thus far in 2014.
The Bearcats have been really good in the red-zone so far, on both offense and defense. Offensively, they have scored on all 10 of their possessions inside their opponents’ 20-yard line, coming away with a touchdown on eight of those occasions. Defensively, they have allowed just five scores on nine red-zone visits by their opponents, and only three of those five were touchdowns.
Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have struggled a bit in the red-zone. They have made it inside their opponents’ 20 16 times this season, coming away with 13 scores, 11 of which have been touchdowns. On defense, they have given up seven scores to their opposition on eight trips to the red-zone, and six of those were for touchdowns. The numbers favor UC here, and it will need to continue that success inside the twenties to have a shot at knocking off OSU.
The Bearcats have done a pretty good job of getting after the opposing quarterback while protecting their own. Cincinnati has tallied 11 sacks in two games this season while only allowing two. The Buckeyes have amassed just eight sacks in three games while also allowing their quarterback to be dropped eight times.
That said, the competition does need to be accounted for when looking at those numbers, and it will be a tough task for the Bearcats’ offensive line to keep Kiel clean against a beastly OSU defensive line. UC needs to give Kiel time to find his receivers, and Silverberry Mouhon and the rest of the Cats D needs to force Barrett into a few mistakes, which leads me to my next key stat:
Turnovers. As is the case with almost any football game, the team that wins the turnover battle is likely to win.
Kiel has thrown two interceptions (both last week against Miami) but Cincinnati has not lost a fumble yet. On defense, the Bearcats have only recorded one interception, but they have recovered three fumbles leading to a +2 turnover margin. As for Ohio State, it has lost two fumbles and Barrett has thrown five interceptions.
While the offense has been prone to give the ball away, the Buckeyes’ defense has also been good at getting it back as they’ve picked off five passes and recovered two fumbles to give OSU an even turnover ratio. Remember: Barrett threw a pick-six to Virginia Tech cornerback Donovan Riley with the Buckeyes attempting to tie Virginia Tech late in the game with a touchdown drive. The sophomore quarterback that handles the big game pressure better and avoids a game-changing mistake will likely lead his team to victory in this one.
In short, the Bearcats will defeat the Buckeyes if they convert third downs on offense and get off the field on third down on defense, score when they get in the red-zone, pressure Barrett and protect Kiel, and win the turnover battle. All of which will be tough, but not impossible, for Cincinnati against a deeply-talented Ohio State team playing in its own house.
Oh, and one more stat that theoretically means nothing but psychologically could mean everything: Tuberville is 2-0 against Urban Meyer head-to-head.
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