The AFC's portion of the wildcard weekend was largely a dissapointment, as neither game was played particularly well. On paper, we could be in for similar results this weekend as both of our divisional match-ups are repeats of lop-sided affairs from earlier this season.
Still, the playoffs might be the most unpredictable time of the season, and while both home teams head into the weekend as big favorites, neither the Broncos or Patriots should feel too comfortable. What will have to happen for there to be an upset?
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos – Saturday, 4:30 pm
The Ravens were overwhelmed by the Broncos' defensive talent and fast paced offense when Denver traveled to Baltimore earlier this year. Now Joe Flacco and the Ravens will travel to Denver in an attempt to gain revenge for that loss and advance to the AFC Championship game.
Key Match-ups to Watch
Denver QB Peyton Manning vs Baltimore LB Ray Lewis
Ray Lewis could be taking the field for the last time in his career, and Peyton Manning doesn't likely have too many seasons left in him either. And while neither player is at his peak physically , both guys know the game better than the vast majority of the league, and the pre-snap match-up between these two will be a critical factor in determining who will advance to the AFC Championship game.
By far, it will be the most action packed pre-snap period of any game of the weekend. Manning will come to the line and make an audible as he always does. Then Lewis will bark out his counter-alignments on defense, and then Manning will again adjust.
It's a match-up that Manning has traditionally dominated. He's won nine straight versus the Ravens, and he figures to be a considerable favorite again this time around. The Broncos handled Baltimore pretty easily earlier this season, beating them by 17. Lewis however, wasn't playing in that particular match-up. Will his presence be enough to make a difference?
Baltimore RBs Ray Rice & Bernard Pierce vs Denver's Front Seven
Pundits can talk all they want about whether or not Joe Flacco is an elite passer, or whether or not the Ravens should even re-sign him during the offseason, but he isn't likely to be the driving force behind Baltimore's offense when they take the field in Denver. That distinction will belong to Ray Rice, and perhaps more surprisingly Bernard Pierce.
Rice didn't have a particularly strong game last weekend – fumbling twice, and racking up only 68 yards against the Colts. It was instead the rookie Pierce who did most of the work on the ground, running for 103 yards on thirteen carries.
Regardless of who is carrying the ball, they'll be facing a tough rushing defense. The Broncos had the third ranked rushing defense during the regular season, and will give a sometimes shaky Ravens offensive line headaches. If Baltimore can't run the ball and control the pace of the game, it's likely that Denver will run away with this one. Will the Ravens' offense be up to the task?
Rookie Watch
Baltimore OT/OG Kelichi Osemele
Normally, a rookie switching positions during the postseason would be a less than desirable scenario for most any player. For Kelechi Osemele, however the move from tackle to guard couldn't have come at a better time. Osemele, who is replacing Jah Reid at left guard, will now for the most part miss out on having to pass block against Von Miller.
Osemele started every regular season game at tackle, but his performance during their wild card game may give Baltimore reason to consider making the move inside a permanent one for Osemele. The rookie played a great game, giving up little pressure on Joe Flacco while at the same time paving the way for Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce on the ground. He'll need a similar performance again this time around against a strong Denver front seven.
Prediction
Baltimore deserves credit for their decisive win last weekend over the Colts, but the Broncos are a much more talented team. Peyton Manning looks poised to lead his new team to the Super Bowl, and unfortunately for the Ravens, they're the first thing standing in his way.
Denver 35, Baltimore 13
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Houston Texans at New England Patriots – Sunday, 4:30 pm
The Monday Night match-up between these two was supposed to be one of the best games of the season. Instead, the Patriots dominated the entire game and sent Houston into that terrible slump they ended the year on. Will Houston get redemption on their second trip to New England this season?
Key Match-ups to Watch
Houston RB Arian Foster vs. New England Run D
It'd be hard to isolate one specific issue that caused the Texans to fall flat on their face against the Patriots the last time they met, but a big reason for their struggles was the ineffectiveness of Arian Foster. When he's played well this year, Houston has tended to follow suit. When he's played poorly, so has the rest of the offense.
It stands to reason then that the Texans will need far more than the 46 yards he managed on his previous trip to New England. To do that, the Texans have to avoid falling behind like they did in the last match-up. Houston needs to feed Foster the ball for four quarters to have a chance in this one, and they can't do that while playing catch-up at the same time.
They also can't run the ball if the offensive line can't establish any sort of push against the Patriots' defensive line, and that's exactly what happened in week fourteen. The Texans' normally stout offensive line was pushed around for the entire game, and it left Foster with no where to run. Will Houston prove that week fourteen was just an aberration, or will New England's front seven dominate again?
New England QB Tom Brady vs. Houston DC Wade Phillips
For years, there's been a huge debate about how to most effectively play defense against Tom Brady. Do you blitz, or drop everyone into coverage? Is Brady more likely to pick apart a man to man defense, or zone coverage? In reality there is no perfect formula for stopping Brady – but that doesn't mean Wade Phillips and his Texans' defense won't try.
In their previous meeting, Phillips called blitzes more often than not, as he usually does. And while Brady didn't have an outstanding overall game, he was deadly when the Texans did blitz. It puts the Texans in a bad situation. They're a defense that loves to blitz, and Brady loves to see extra pass rushers.
It will be up to Phillips to come up with the perfect balance of blitzing and more conservative defense if the Texans want to slow down Brady. With pass rushing talent like JJ Watt possesses on the line, would Houston be wise to just avoid blitzing all together? It's doubtful that Phillips would adopt that strategy, but it could just come back to bite them.
Rookie Watch
Houston RG Ben Jones
The Texans' defense has the extremely unenviable task of trying to slow down the Tom Brady led offense, and without a chance to catch their breath they (nor any other NFL defense) will stand much of a chance. Houston's offense needs to be able to control the ball and win the time of possession battle, and that means running the ball well will be a necessity.
For rookie offensive guard Ben Jones, that means he'll be spending much of the night run blocking against Vince Wilfork – something Jones struggled mightily with in their first meeting this season. Jones was often overpowered by Wilfork and was frequently driven backwards. Wilfork's dominance was a big cause of the struggles in Houstons' run game. If that happens again, this could be another lop-sided affair.
Prediction
It looked like Houston snapped out of their end of the season slump last weekend, but taking on New England will be the true test. The Texans are eager to prove that their last meeting was a fluke – will Matt Schaub be able to keep up with Tom Brady? It's likely that the Texans can keep it closer than last time, but in the end the Patriots are just too talented.
New England 38, Houston 24
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