2013 NFL Draft: Should Teams Draft Interior Offensive Linemen Early in the First Round?

Even before Chance Warmack had one of the most dominating performances of any player in this past season's national title game, there was some talk that the Alabama offensive guard could be drafted surprisingly early. After that game, his name frequently comes up in the top ten of mock drafts from experts across the country. Jonathan Cooper's strong combine performance there's been plenty of buzz that both he and Warmack could have the chance to be the highest drafted guard in quite some time.

Is that likely to actually happen though? Would it even be wise for a team to draft an interior lineman in the first round at all, or is it too high a price to pay at the position?

There's certainly no argument that both Warmack and Cooper are two of this draft's most talented players. In Warmack's case in particular, his stellar season have led many to call Warmack one of the greatest offensive guard prospects ever, more than worthy of a top ten selection.

If those sorts of proclamations sound familiar, it's for good reason. This time one year ago we were hearing the exact same predictions made about David DeCastro – a highly talented offensive guard who ended up dropping all the way to the 24^th pick of the first round.

The simple fact is that teams don't draft guards in the top ten, and in general teams won't look to the interior of their offensive line during the first round much at all. In the past ten years, only 17 guards and centers have been drafted in the first round, and none of those 17 were selected any higher than fifteenth overall (you can check out the full breakdown at the end of this article). There's no question that the majority of teams feel that the impact these players have on the game, combined with the value they feel will be available later in the draft, typically make this an area of low priority more often than not.

It might not be a bad idea for teams to take a second look of those offensive guards and centers before they decide to draft a player that's a high risk prospect. While other positions can carry some pretty significant bust potential in the first round, that can't be said for interior offensive linemen. Of those 17 players that have been drafted in the past ten years, only one (Chris Spencer) could really be considered a bust, and even he still has the ability to be a reliable swing man on many offensive lines. Moreover, even if Spencer is labeled a bust, that's still just a 5% bust rate. That makes these positions by far the safest to select in the first round, if you're looking to solely to avoid a bust.

But what if a team is looking for more than just a safe bet in the first round? Is an offensive guard or center drafted likely enough to become elite to merit spending a first round pick on? According to Matt Millers' work on Bleacher Report's top 1000 players, probably not. Out of his top fifteen offensive guards, only four of them were drafted in the first round. The majority of them were drafted in the second or third rounds, and two of them were undrafted altogether. (It is worth noting that one player drafted as a guard, Branden Albert, has since become a highly rated offensive tackle).

For centers, it's a little more difficult to determine where the best value is. Out of the top ten centers, three were drafted in the first round. However, five of the top ten were drafted in the fifth round or later, including one player that went undrafted.

There's no doubt that you can build a dominate team in part by investing heavily in the offensive line. Just look at San Francisco – three of their five starting offensive linemen were first round picks. However only one of those first round picks plays on the inside (Mike Iupati) and the of the other two interior players, one was drafted in the 5^th round and the other was undrafted.

There are certainly reasons to draft an interior offensive lineman in the first round, but it's not something every team should do. If you're already a strong team with just a couple of pieces missing, taking a guard or center can make sense. You're practically guaranteed to get a solid starter, and even if you don't end up getting an elite talent out of it, you weren't desperate for one in the first place.

However, teams like Arizona, Buffalo, and Tennessee – all teams that could potentially draft a guard in the top ten – might all be better suited to look elsewhere in the first round. They're certainly lacking talent on their offensive lines, but that's not the only place they're hurting and upgrades at offensive guard probably wouldn't improve the entire team too much.

So don't be surprised if we see Warmack and Cooper fall farther than they're expected to when the draft kicks off. Both players are talented enough to be selected early, but most teams simply won't feel like the value is there.

Offensive Guards and Centers Selected in First Round Since 2002