2016 NFL Draft: Top 10 Quarterback Prospects, Led by Paxton Lynch

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Over the past two months, the quarterback discussion has shifted on multiple fronts, and we’ve seen the rise of two junior quarterbacks into the top-two spots of position rankings, and they’re not Christian Hackenberg or Cardale Jones.

The 2016 quarterback class doesn’t have a clear #1 overall worthy quarterback which, in my opinion, may mean none of these passers SHOULD be taken in the first-round as of now. If you’re not worthy of the 1st overall pick, there should be doubt into whether the quarterback can handle the expectation of being a team’s first round pick and clear “face of the franchise”.

But this quarterback class offers as many as eight quarterbacks who could still rise/impress this season and in post-season workouts to be an NFL teams favorite, which should make for a fantastic discussion as to which/how many passers go in the top-100 picks, and who is the first quarterback taken.

Updated: October 27th

  1. Dak Prescott, Mississippi State – 6th-Undrafted

A developing “project” quarterback the last three years, Dak Prescott hasn’t become much more than a Tim Tebow type player in his Mississippi State career. While that may be the kiss of death for his NFL dreams, he’s actually made enough strides in the pocket (especially in the second half against LSU) that, when he’s confident, he actually flashes pocket movement, composure inside and outside the pocket, and proper mechanics when away from his initial setting. That being said, it may be time for NFL teams to start saying “thanks but no thanks” on “project” quarterbacks picked after the first two rounds, as most (all?) haven’t been worthwhile for NFL teams.

  1. Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky – 5th-7th Round

As a highly productive, 6’3 quarterback, Doughty may at first glance be a bit low on this list. Arm talent is adequate for the NFL level, and his placement in mid-range (both inside and on the perimeter) is a big reason why his offense is productive each week. He’s a reliable pocket passer who finishes throws at a high level. His upside may be a bit limited, and in his 6th year in college gives teams age and prior injury question marks. But he’s viewed as the draft’s top “he’d be a great backup” quarterback, and may get drafted in that role behind a young quarterback.

  1. Jacoby Brissett, NC State – 3rd-5th Round

At times, Jacoby Brissett draws stark similarities to Ben Roethlisberger, his ceiling as a prospect and a projection that some feel isn’t too lofty. He’s a plus athlete in and outside the pocket, is a highly skilled passer on the move (primarily when rolling to his right) and, as a streaky passer, can have drives where his placement, poise and decision-making (including when to run or pass) can really threaten any defense in the country. But his indecisiveness along with over-reliance on his first-read gets him into trouble. He needs another game like his 2014 Florida State performance to get NFL teams hope he can be a top-100 worthy quarterback again.

  1. Carson Wentz, North Dakota State – 3rd-5th Round

Carson Wentz’s college career may be over (barring a playoff run by his team) thanks to a broken wrist this season, but that hasn’t stopped NFL teams from getting excited about him as a passer. With high-level arm talent, 6’5 size and downfield passing accuracy, he’s an easy quarterback to fall in love with at the FCS level. His throwing mechanics and placement on the perimeter is exciting to project at the NFL level. Some scouts are bullish he may go as high as the second-round, but I think the 3rd-5th is a more reasonable expectation. There’s still enough unknowns about Wentz that will sort themselves out at the Senior Bowl. 

  1. Cardale Jones, Ohio State (JR) – 3rd Round

Jones has been benched as the Ohio State quarterback, a move by Urban Meyer that was a long-time coming. While NFL teams aren’t worried about his ability to fit into a locker room (see how that differs with Connor Cook later), they do still have lingering concerns over whether his work ethic in the off-season will inhibit his gaudy upside.

On field, as I wrote for Sporting News in late September, Cardale Jones can be compared to NBA player Brandon Jennings: Just because he can make all the throws, doesn’t mean he should throw them all. He’s a point guard in the Urban Meyer offense, but he’s been late in his progressions, indecisive on timing throws, and forcing throws in his first-read that he feels he can “throw open”. His interceptions were among the most of non-first year starters in the country when he was benched, and he’ll need to answer those issues. That being said, he’s this year’s Logan Thomas, but a passer teams are much more bullish on that he can become a Cam Newton-lite passer in time.

  1. Seth Russell, Baylor (JR) – 3rd Round

I’m unsure about his back injury he sustained this past weekend, but I’ll assume at this point, he’ll be able to make a 100% recovery. That being said, I wouldn’t expect/encourage Russell to enter the 2016 NFL Draft.

But, as far as his abilities on the field, Russell has already emerged as the most complete passer Art Briles and Baylor have ever had. His vertical touch, while not quite RG3 level, is a strength of his play. His receivers have helped him plenty, but he’s nearly perfect in mid-field routes to set-up his receivers for ample run-after-catch opportunities. His touch in the redzone is also rarely consistent, and his relationship with Corey Coleman in that area is as much of a guarantee as Brady and Gronk in the same situation. His running talent puts him into the “future first-round” discussion, and he seems to be less of a scheme/pre-snap reliant passer than Bryce Petty was before him.

  1. Christian Hackenberg, Penn State (JR) – 1st-2nd Round

Hackenberg has already become one of the most polarizing quarterbacks in the country, and once he declares for the 2016 NFL Draft, it won’t slow down. As far as his off-field report, he’s a player who’s matured since his sophomore season (in which he was griping a bit with the new coaching staff and losing Bill O’Brien), and is part of the “band of brothers” mentality in the Penn State locker room. He’s not quite a definitive “leader”, but he’s respected as the starting quarterback in a defensive senior-lead team.

On the field, he’s frustratingly mastered the bounce pass on slant routes, and his placement on slants, swing passes and quick screens has been disappointing to say the least. His footwork has seen some improvements from 2014, but he’s still lacking refinement enough in this area to make read-exchange, quick throws in the mid-field.

But he still has NFL support, and I think for good reason: we’ve seen what he COULD be in an offense that is conducive to his development. He may be getting an overly benefit of doubt, but his arm strength, flashes of vertical route placement, and mental capabilities from the pocket (despite not rearing their head since O’Brien left) still have NFL teams optimistic that he can be Carson Palmer.

  1. Connor Cook, Michigan State – 1st-2nd Round

Off-the-field, there’s more than an enough to tackle as it relates to his relationship with coaches and teammates. In short and without going into too much detail, a portion of his teammates and even some coaches are not a fan of Cook’s arrogance and attitude, and it’s even at times carried over to the field. While a quarterback doesn’t have to be “universally liked”, I don’t know if I’ve heard of a quarterback succeeding when he’s somewhat disliked on his college team.

As for his play on the field, he’s made some truly special throws. While his off-balance throws are in part on him for reacting slowly to pressure or bailing out of the pocket unnecessarily at times, he makes 5-6 throws per game that show elite arm talent, velocity control and touch that no other quarterback in the country can make with the same consistency that he does. His turnovers and occasional misfires are frustrating, and need to be cleaned up. But he’s probably still the clear #1 for NFL teams, and he may be Bill O’Brien’s target in Houston, assuming he’s both still around at season’s end and has a major say in personnel decisions. 

  1. Jared Goff, California (JR) – 1st-2nd Round

The media darling of the quarterback class to start the season, Jared Goff has taken strides from his highly flashy sophomore season at Cal and has become this year’s Jameis Winston type quarterback. Goff is a fantastic anticipation thrower, progressing with perfect timing and delivering with plus arm strength and placement. At his best and when he’s able to go from read to read, he’s the best quarterback in this class.

In the pocket, he stands tall and can finish downfield, and isn’t afraid to take hits in the pocket or work off balance if he’s able to make the throw. But his interceptions, like Winston before him, are concerning because of the way he’s made them. They’ve been rushed decisions, some indecisiveness on downfield throws that puts defensive backs in better position, and missed opportunities. Additionally, scouts have the same “can he hold up?” concerns they had with Teddy Bridgewater.

He’s in the mix for the top-10 picks as of now, but it’s clear to me that NFL teams don’t value him quite as highly as some outside the NFL do. I think he and Cook are on the same tier as prospects, but Cook gets the nod thanks to his development over his career and no off-field concerns.

  1. Paxton Lynch, Memphis (JR) – 1st Round

Starting the year as an intriguing junior hoping to make strides, Paxton Lynch has risen to the point of first quarterback selected status. And there’s so much to like with the junior passer. He’s developed from a two-star quarterback shunned from the major programs in his home state of Florida into one of the nation’s best passer, making drastic improvements each year in footwork, placement and decision-making.

He offers ideal size (6’7), ample arm strength, and pocket quickness to adjust in pocket and be proficient on the perimeter. In the pocket, Lynch does an plus job of reacting to pocket pressure, both stepping up and adjusting to outside pocket at a high level, though he does tend to bounce out rather than maneuver inside.

Finally, and most importantly, it’s Lynch’s unique “feel” as a passer that has me most excited for his NFL upside. Compared to Jared Goff, Lynch is a more instinctive passer, rather than an anticipatory one. He adjusts off his first read or under pressure without hesitation on throws, and doesn’t hesitate to throw players open. He offers the rare instincts as a passer that isn’t seen often from college passers, and that innate confidence and decisiveness should make him the draft’s best passer.

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