With Colin Kaepernick’s future in San Francisco up in the air, it seems more and more likely that the 49ers will target a quarterback at some point in the draft. Many believe that if Cal’s Jared Goff is still on the board when San Francisco picks, it will be his name on the team’s draft card.
The reasoning behind the hypothetical pick is not just that the 49ers need a quarterback, but there is a notion that Goff is a perfect fit for Chip Kelly’s offense. That isn’t the case.
By: Derrik Klassen
Kelly’s offense is largely thought to be two things: 1) an offense that is easy and can make any quarterback better than they are, and 2) an offense predicated on precision and superior accuracy in the short/intermediate areas of the field. The first of the two ideas is largely flawed. No NFL is offense is “easy”, nor can it make a player better than they are. The system may put players in their best position to succeed, but that can be said of a lot of good offenses around the league. Nick Foles’ statistically improbable year skewed the perception of how otherworldly Kelly’s scheme is.
The offense is constantly changing, too. Cian Fahey contrasted the offenses from when Foles was the quarterback versus when Sam Bradford/Mark Sanchez were the quarterbacks. With Foles, there was less nuance to the offense and much more aggression. Foles was allowed to take his chances down the field because, frankly, he is not capable of much more. Since Foles had the attitude and down field ability to run that aggressive passing attack, the Eagles had a solid season and Foles recorded one of the most historic statistical seasons ever. With Bradford/Sanchez at the helm- Bradford being one of Goff’s closest NFL comparisons- the Eagles struggled for a large part of the year and could not put up the points they expected to.
The Eagles could not throw down the field last year, even when the opportunity arose. On this play, the receiver at the top of the screen gets 1-on-1 coverage and some separation, but Bradford opts not to take the chance at the big play and ends up throwing an incompletion anyway.
On top of that, a lot of the Eagles passing offense ended up looking like this second play. This is a quick “Levels” concept with only one deep route, which ends up being a “Corner” route pinned tight to the sideline. With Foles, more of the plays out of a formation like this would be some sort of “Four Verticals” variant. More of the verticals concepts may come back as Goff can throw down the seam rather well, but it would be tough to rationalize being as aggressive of a play caller with Goff as Kelly was with Foles.
Without the ability to threaten down the field, which was also somewhat true of the Foles offense once DeSean Jackson left, Kelly’s offense became predictable. The short/intermediate concepts that Kelly had to lean on with Bradford/Sanchez need to be ran at an extremely high level to truly function. Goff can not entirely provide that, not to mention he, too, will not be a threat down the field. Goff more often than not left far too much air under his deeper throws at Cal, leaving his receivers to too often have to fight for the ball, take a brutalizing hit or lose out on prime yardage because Goff could not lead them.
Yet, at the same time, Goff struggles more as a short area passer than has been said. Part of the issue is that he does not have the upper body strength to throw comfortably if he can not set his feet like he wants, and the NFL will force him off his spot quite often. Goff doesn’t adjust well, either, so having to change his angle to avoid a defender is going to be problematic. With as fast and smart as NFL defenses are, Goff being forced to adjust on a given play is going to happen a lot, as well. He would need to read defenses near flawlessly and throw with great accuracy to fully compensate for his inability down the field, and he can not do that.
Goff’s saving grace in Kelly’s offense is that he can incorporate simple Run-Pass Option plays for Goff. Kelly has also used a lot of intermediate seam and crossing routes in the past, both of which Goff is used to throwing often. These are a lot of the same concepts that was used to help Robert Griffin III along in Washington, thought he was much more talented and adaptable than Goff is/
Goff is a quarterback that absolutely needs the structure of the play in order to succeed. Granted, Kelly’s offense can likely provide that more easily than a lot of other offenses. Kelly may once again call for more shorter/intermediate routes over the middle of the field like he did with Bradford/Sanchez, but those offenses came crashing down because of their predictability. Goff would not be able to overcome the predictability with superb precision, downfield prowess or innate playmaking ability. The Jared Goff/Chip Kelly connection has been made out to be one of the best fits this class could churn out, but that is largely misguided.
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